Grounded-Bottling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$171

Unrealized P&L

-$113

Hit rate

67.2%

Resolved

164

Trades

383

lifetime

Volume

$6.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$12

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 10-05 14:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

67% 38% -$155

Tech

22% 30% -$189

Politics

6% 89% +$217

Crypto

3% 20% -$12

Sports

2% 25% -$32

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	+127	$41	6¢	$8	-$32	10-05 14:19
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	+183	$80	2¢	$3	-$77	06-30 16:46
Epic Games IPO before 2027?	Yes	+37	$5	2¢	$1	-$4	05-26 21:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	11	$782	575	575	+0	No	+$133	05-22 01:07
will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743	2	$398	229	229	+0	open	—	07-10 20:02
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	2	$363	337	337	+0	open	—	07-09 05:44
will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	2	$260	161	161	+0	Yes	+$25	08-07 08:36
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	3	$220	200	122	+78	Yes	-$40	06-08 08:00
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026?	2	$206	125	125	+0	No	+$6	06-01 16:15
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026?	6	$176	267	267	+0	No	+$30	06-28 08:05
will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	2	$168	113	113	+0	No	+$8	06-25 06:07
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	10	$165	565	565	+0	No	+$40	06-26 21:51
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	3	$162	416	185	+231	Yes	+$2	06-08 08:05
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?	2	$148	112	112	+0	Yes	+$56	06-30 16:38
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$132	78	78	+0	Yes	+$8	06-30 13:42
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	5	$128	222	117	+106	Yes	-$12	06-08 08:05
will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	2	$113	263	263	+0	open	—	06-16 23:13
will openai ipo by september 30 2026	4	$112	412	43	+369	No	-$48	06-30 16:46
spcx above 150 on july 31 2026	1	$108	119	0	+119	No	+$11	07-15 16:11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	2	$105	58	58	+0	No	+$5	05-28 06:28
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?	6	$95	81,208	0	+81,208	No	-$95	07-11 23:06
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	3	$95	598	0	+598	Yes	-$95	06-08 07:57
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	2	$90	361	361	+0	Yes	+$40	06-29 15:28
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	2	$82	60	60	+0	open	—	05-27 16:38
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	2	$80	183	0	+183	open	—	06-30 16:46
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$77	77	77	+0	No	+$17	05-28 13:15
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?	6	$75	65,702	0	+65,702	No	-$75	07-11 23:07
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?	4	$60	204	36	+168	No	-$10	06-11 16:25
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	4	$59	432	432	+0	open	—	05-22 00:58
dota2 ngx pr1 2026 04 05	7	$58	120	59	+61	Nigma Galaxy	+$8	04-05 18:20
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?	4	$54	188	46	+142	No	-$4	06-17 20:06
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$53	167	167	+0	open	—	05-22 00:58
dota2 mouz 1win 2026 04 02 game2	3	$48	37	36	+1	1win	+$14	04-02 13:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 14:19:47	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0xb9b52e…
09-16 21:57:52	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xd75a02…
09-14 15:01:19	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0xed4674…
09-06 21:41:21	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x213812…
08-20 17:51:34	will spcx dip to 100 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	196	2¢	$3	0xe3e538…
08-20 17:51:30	will tsla dip to 285 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x33211c…
08-20 17:51:28	will tsla dip to 300 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xff0733…
08-14 19:00:12	will spcx dip to 100 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	196	7¢	$14	0x0d53f6…
08-12 06:48:12	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 846 461	No	SELL	37	39¢	$14	0xb585d2…
08-07 13:39:28	will spcx reach 140 in august 2026	No	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0x5ab5e2…
08-07 11:43:45	will spcx reach 140 in august 2026	No	BUY	28	77¢	$22	0x03dc1a…
08-07 11:40:28	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by august 31 20260730182630758	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0xc28bac…
08-07 11:39:43	will tsla reach 375 in august 2026	No	BUY	36	81¢	$29	0x85dd4f…
08-07 11:39:12	will tsla reach 375 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x87777b…
08-07 11:36:54	will tsla reach 330 in august 2026	No	BUY	40	26¢	$11	0x66128c…
08-07 11:36:39	will tsla dip to 300 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x481da6…
08-07 11:36:21	will tsla dip to 285 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xf231d5…
08-07 11:34:36	will tsla reach 360 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x6c2582…
08-07 08:38:16	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 846 461	No	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xf44333…
08-07 08:36:36	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	161	88¢	$142	0x522d06…
07-31 21:42:12	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	BUY	161	73¢	$118	0x18d10d…
07-15 16:11:47	spcx above 150 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	119	91¢	$108	0x910f94…
07-14 20:25:23	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	103	19¢	$20	0x2a6cb8…
07-14 20:25:08	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	107	4¢	$4	0x94e5e8…
07-14 20:22:58	Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?	Yes	SELL	107	21¢	$22	0xa40e91…
07-14 20:21:31	Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?	Yes	SELL	114	9¢	$10	0xa06385…
07-14 19:58:58	Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?	Yes	BUY	107	15¢	$16	0x585fcf…
07-14 19:58:22	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?	Yes	SELL	109	10¢	$11	0x5564e2…
07-14 18:52:02	Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?	Yes	SELL	111	7¢	$8	0xb9ee57…
07-14 18:47:11	Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?	Yes	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0x581c3b…
07-14 18:46:55	Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Spain?	Yes	BUY	115	3¢	$3	0x1281fa…
07-14 18:46:44	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?	Yes	BUY	109	11¢	$12	0x9cd466…
07-14 18:46:32	Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?	Yes	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0x9c806f…
07-14 18:46:32	Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x7271c8…
07-11 23:07:05	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	54,490	0¢	$54	0x4423b7…
07-11 23:06:44	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	70,000	0¢	$70	0xe82c70…
07-11 23:06:17	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x67a7ab…
07-11 23:06:07	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x08ddc4…
07-11 23:03:25	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x4e824d…
07-11 23:02:31	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x80116b…
07-11 23:00:19	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xbcdb0d…
07-11 23:00:17	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0xe8d301…
07-11 22:59:35	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	35	1¢	$0	0xf0835c…
07-11 22:59:35	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	65	1¢	$1	0x2dc4ac…
07-11 22:54:35	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	SELL	110	0¢	$0	0x41afca…
07-11 20:13:53	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	BUY	110	10¢	$11	0x90cbd1…
07-11 20:13:38	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?	Yes	BUY	123	2¢	$2	0xfec749…
07-11 20:13:28	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	107	3¢	$3	0x34f7eb…
07-11 20:13:17	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 England?	Yes	BUY	114	4¢	$5	0xbef0b9…
07-11 20:13:07	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	115	3¢	$3	0xef132d…
07-11 20:12:55	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0xf67bd6…
07-11 20:12:46	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 England?	Yes	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0x276c58…
07-11 20:11:25	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	112	8¢	$9	0x3f7837…
07-11 20:11:10	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	108	12¢	$13	0xb30945…
07-10 20:09:26	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Belgium?	Yes	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0xa34516…
07-10 20:09:13	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Belgium?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x2c784c…
07-10 20:08:32	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x93f8f4…
07-10 20:06:31	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	385	2¢	$8	0x4cd09f…
07-10 20:02:44	will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743	No	SELL	229	89¢	$203	0x16e7d8…
07-09 05:45:35	will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743	No	BUY	229	85¢	$194	0x848b4e…
07-09 05:44:35	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	SELL	337	51¢	$170	0xde5a30…
07-06 23:50:04	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	102	5¢	$5	0x4025b5…
07-06 23:48:04	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	385	1¢	$5	0xe7484a…
07-06 23:47:38	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	105	18¢	$19	0xa2a853…
07-06 07:30:07	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xc6a307…
07-01 17:51:28	Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x5cdcb6…
07-01 17:40:28	Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xab61ff…
07-01 17:24:29	Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xc35586…
07-01 17:24:26	Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xbb5a3b…
06-30 18:10:22	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0xb5951e…
06-30 16:59:59	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	105	11¢	$12	0x126e91…
06-30 16:51:35	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	103	19¢	$20	0x162ca5…
06-30 16:51:29	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0x309489…
06-30 16:50:56	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	294	2¢	$5	0xb14f14…
06-30 16:46:58	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0xf5e960…
06-30 16:46:40	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x5a7c40…
06-30 16:46:16	will openai ipo by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$6	0xa4bec2…
06-30 16:46:11	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	558	0¢	$3	0x97bca4…
06-30 16:38:23	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	112	91¢	$102	0x10781a…
06-30 13:42:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	78	90¢	$70	0x98bbc2…
06-29 18:01:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	78	80¢	$62	0xe97f6c…
06-29 15:28:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	No	SELL	361	18¢	$65	0x05a78e…
06-28 09:49:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	No	BUY	361	7¢	$25	0xc3d3ca…
06-28 08:05:02	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	26¢	$26	0x035ded…
06-26 21:54:14	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	18¢	$18	0xe454ac…
06-26 21:51:22	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	17¢	$19	0x2fcf79…
06-26 08:02:49	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0x57214f…
06-25 08:55:46	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	35¢	$39	0x4eff33…
06-25 08:55:28	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	41¢	$46	0x78cf09…
06-25 06:07:31	will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	No	SELL	113	78¢	$88	0x886584…
06-24 16:16:59	will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	No	BUY	113	71¢	$80	0x1aaa82…
06-24 11:11:16	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	162	30¢	$49	0xc36cd7…
06-23 09:41:41	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	35¢	$9	0x874466…
06-23 06:01:17	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x60aa37…
06-22 16:23:56	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	32¢	$13	0x470127…
06-21 20:10:55	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.20 and $3.50 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	229	1¢	$3	0xc3a45a…
06-21 20:10:38	Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.50 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	242	1¢	$3	0x7f117b…
06-21 07:18:35	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	33¢	$6	0x11ea62…
06-20 19:00:32	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	232	8¢	$19	0xc4f355…
06-18 19:16:43	Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	23	85¢	$20	0x53870f…