Unkempt-Parchment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$623

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

71.8%

Resolved

812

Trades

4,480

lifetime

Volume

$144.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$1.41K

17 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-28 07:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 205 days

Categories

Other

42% 64% +$1,572

Politics

34% 58% -$1,502

Crypto

12% 58% -$445

Tech

8% 68% +$161

Sports

4% 33% -$406

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+681	$602	99¢	$675	+$73	10-22 00:20
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	+162	$106	86¢	$140	+$34	07-04 09:34
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+176	$111	66¢	$115	+$4	10-21 09:58
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	+111	$83	82¢	$92	+$8	10-07 03:10
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+111	$71	68¢	$75	+$4	10-06 17:15
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+111	$88	67¢	$74	-$13	10-06 07:11
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	+70	$65	94¢	$66	+$0	10-27 16:56
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+202	$51	26¢	$53	+$2	10-28 09:09
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+88	$60	55¢	$48	-$12	10-27 19:18
perim island no longer under houthi control by december 31 20260916	Yes	+131	$29	18¢	$23	-$6	10-20 10:48
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+21	$18	99¢	$21	+$3	10-13 13:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+88	$11	12¢	$10	$0	10-20 19:54
will russia capture dobropillia by december 31 2026	Yes	+51	$11	20¢	$10	-$1	08-28 17:54
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	+21	$8	24¢	$5	-$3	10-08 05:02
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	+18	$3	12¢	$2	$0	07-26 16:43
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	+3	$2	76¢	$2	+$0	10-28 07:45
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+80	$87	0¢	$0	-$87	09-29 12:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	61	$7.4K	3,792	4,037	-245	No	+$114	05-26 10:55
will iran be said during the first episode of the joe rogan experience for the week april 5	13	$5.5K	5,652	0	+5,652	No	+$156	03-31 22:13
mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	1	$4.0K	4,065	0	+4,065	No	+$49	08-19 10:55
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	39	$3.5K	2,442	3,219	-777	Yes	+$663	04-01 11:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	26	$2.7K	1,684	1,684	+0	No	-$83	05-27 05:58
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	51	$2.5K	1,624	1,618	+6	Yes	-$28	05-13 11:46
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	47	$2.4K	3,480	2,605	+875	No	-$724	04-01 18:08
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	49	$2.4K	3,088	2,861	+227	Yes	-$119	07-01 20:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	23	$2.4K	7,330	999	+6,331	Yes	-$898	04-09 18:56
will holy shit be said on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 15	64	$2.1K	2,451	329	+2,122	No	+$307	03-11 07:12
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	40	$1.7K	2,848	2,848	+0	open	—	10-25 20:47
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	25	$1.7K	910	910	+0	No	+$4	05-16 19:55
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	24	$1.5K	1,554	1,776	-222	Yes	-$138	04-14 15:46
will crypto or bitcoin be said on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	14	$1.4K	1,617	0	+1,617	No	+$207	03-24 20:29
will john oliver say iran on last week tonight	3	$1.3K	1,420	0	+1,420	Yes	+$71	02-23 10:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	14	$1.3K	782	782	+0	Yes	+$78	06-16 18:33
will powell say fed or federal reserve 7 times during march press conference 712 816	37	$1.3K	2,353	22	+2,331	No	+$98	03-12 06:49
will egypt reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120761	10	$1.3K	2,147	2,147	+0	Yes	-$54	06-10 11:19
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	15	$1.3K	699	699	+0	Yes	+$46	09-02 22:36
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	38	$1.2K	1,776	1,554	+222	No	-$678	03-31 18:43
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	6	$1.1K	600	600	+0	Yes	+$4	10-23 08:49
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	19	$1.1K	758	733	+25	Yes	+$35	08-26 20:35
google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 15 2026	6	$1.1K	655	655	+0	Yes	+$5	08-30 02:01
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	7	$1.1K	555	555	+0	Yes	+$14	06-29 14:12
LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	10	$1.1K	555	555	+0	Yes	+$9	09-09 17:19
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	28	$1.0K	2,600	532	+2,068	Yes	-$567	09-20 18:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	19	$953	666	666	+0	No	-$59	06-12 16:16
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	69	$942	959	0	+959	Yes	+$17	06-29 17:36
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	12	$917	644	644	+0	No	+$37	06-02 12:03
will iran reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120760	9	$908	2,232	2,232	+0	No	-$137	06-10 11:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 09:09:22	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$51	0xd8997e…
10-28 07:45:19	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x0d2524…
10-28 07:30:05	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2	24¢	$0	0xcb716b…
10-28 01:18:20	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	Yes	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0xeb4982…
10-28 00:11:05	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	Yes	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x6a6ee6…
10-27 19:18:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	88	72¢	$63	0xaab3c5…
10-27 16:56:24	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	94¢	$65	0x5d7b88…
10-27 12:43:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	88	76¢	$67	0x0ff434…
10-27 09:14:42	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb9e6e2…
10-27 09:14:09	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	Yes	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0x37971d…
10-27 09:01:17	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	60¢	$13	0xcabbf7…
10-27 07:56:42	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	62¢	$13	0x68b5bc…
10-27 07:40:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	88	73¢	$64	0x974d02…
10-26 18:10:00	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x1c0c67…
10-26 17:17:24	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	17	24¢	$4	0x7af1b4…
10-26 13:36:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	88	74¢	$65	0xa864a8…
10-26 12:47:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	88	73¢	$64	0xccfea2…
10-26 12:36:27	Hawks vs. Rockets	Rockets	BUY	88	66¢	$58	0xc3a4ee…
10-26 07:54:18	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x8f2142…
10-25 20:47:53	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0xa9bbda…
10-25 20:47:18	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0x774df9…
10-25 20:46:54	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x675132…
10-25 20:46:48	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x4e0f93…
10-25 20:46:33	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0x2d320b…
10-25 20:44:27	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	934	1¢	$9	0xfb947f…
10-25 20:35:45	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	888	2¢	$16	0xea6d2c…
10-25 20:32:18	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	59	28¢	$17	0x72b866…
10-25 20:32:11	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xbb9f38…
10-25 20:32:11	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	77	28¢	$22	0x3b7b09…
10-25 20:30:56	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	150	44¢	$66	0xa2dcec…
10-25 20:22:15	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	150	39¢	$58	0xb56163…
10-25 20:13:26	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	150	49¢	$73	0x5e8b00…
10-25 20:09:38	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	150	44¢	$66	0x5026db…
10-25 20:00:02	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	374	44¢	$165	0x4f30f1…
10-25 19:51:15	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	76	44¢	$33	0x2fa170…
10-25 19:40:53	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	150	35¢	$52	0x19d8e5…
10-25 19:28:21	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	150	40¢	$60	0x96ffa3…
10-25 19:16:39	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	25	46¢	$11	0x68b0aa…
10-25 18:59:38	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	125	46¢	$57	0x34250e…
10-25 18:27:17	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	150	49¢	$74	0x67902e…
10-25 18:19:45	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	150	47¢	$70	0xea9726…
10-25 18:02:39	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	17	47¢	$8	0x8f161e…
10-25 18:02:27	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	200	47¢	$94	0x01854c…
10-25 18:02:11	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	82	47¢	$39	0x1313a9…
10-25 17:50:44	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	150	43¢	$64	0x140bdf…
10-25 17:50:44	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	20	57¢	$12	0x140bdf…
10-25 17:36:50	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	150	45¢	$68	0x9e1359…
10-25 16:57:23	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	150	51¢	$76	0xf9ab99…
10-25 16:33:02	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	125	51¢	$64	0xcfd601…
10-25 16:24:26	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	150	38¢	$56	0x925204…
10-25 15:59:50	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	63	40¢	$25	0xb1176f…
10-25 15:54:50	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	19	40¢	$7	0x38224d…
10-25 15:27:11	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	83	43¢	$36	0x50a2fd…
10-25 15:11:39	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	150	39¢	$59	0xb6ec33…
10-25 15:03:32	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	150	43¢	$65	0x912af5…
10-24 02:50:51	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	88	59¢	$52	0xaf90c0…
10-23 12:36:14	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	88	60¢	$53	0xe0870f…
10-23 12:29:21	Will Holtec Nuclear not IPO before November 2026?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xc4b78c…
10-23 09:31:54	Will Holtec Nuclear not IPO before November 2026?	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x471cb5…
10-23 09:02:57	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x8a600f…
10-23 08:49:24	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	96¢	$384	0x888aac…
10-23 08:47:26	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x7fdd30…
10-23 08:16:56	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	95¢	$41	0x5c1475…
10-23 08:13:54	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	157	95¢	$150	0x39076a…
10-23 08:09:32	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0x2df344…
10-23 08:07:50	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xb4cfa6…
10-22 09:56:41	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	111	91¢	$101	0x687ec4…
10-22 00:20:51	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	89¢	$99	0x11b177…
10-21 16:16:35	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	111	92¢	$102	0x1e88aa…
10-21 15:39:09	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x397750…
10-21 14:31:26	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x8198f8…
10-21 13:05:27	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	348	91¢	$317	0xde2db8…
10-21 11:35:59	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xcb7ad9…
10-21 09:58:54	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	88	63¢	$55	0x03f694…
10-20 19:54:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	88	12¢	$11	0x0cca9b…
10-20 16:43:56	Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0x8c87be…
10-20 15:30:38	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0x1ea4c9…
10-20 14:04:50	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xf3b23c…
10-20 13:17:15	Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x03e5c3…
10-20 12:58:35	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	88	63¢	$55	0x4c8def…
10-20 10:48:36	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	21¢	$4	0x1c64a5…
10-20 10:17:32	Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x55d4c5…
10-20 10:13:17	Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	55¢	$10	0x57f051…
10-20 09:43:39	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x689890…
10-20 06:19:05	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xbf12c0…
10-20 05:50:21	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	18	23¢	$4	0x8ac1dd…
10-20 05:50:20	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x2d8c84…
10-19 21:59:48	Commanders vs. 49ers	49ers	BUY	88	78¢	$69	0xb8d08f…
10-19 11:52:00	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0xc221e0…
10-18 20:16:45	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	30¢	$6	0x7d29ac…
10-16 13:23:42	collins flips jackson for maine senate by november 2	No	BUY	21	62¢	$13	0xd8b634…
10-16 08:52:31	sullivan flips peltola for alaska senate by november 2	No	SELL	21	77¢	$16	0xe4daf3…
10-16 08:22:16	sullivan flips peltola for alaska senate by november 2	No	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0xbef431…
10-15 18:54:49	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	21	60¢	$13	0xec1f1d…
10-15 10:07:26	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	21	81¢	$17	0x89d4c4…
10-15 04:21:46	us imports russian diesel by november 30	No	BUY	21	60¢	$13	0xbbfa16…
10-15 04:18:28	will the tesla roadsters 0 60 time be less than 1 second	No	BUY	21	77¢	$16	0xd8b4d8…
10-14 12:06:11	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	No	SELL	153	72¢	$110	0x8f966b…
10-14 11:22:17	perim island no longer under houthi control by december 31 20260916	Yes	BUY	21	36¢	$8	0xac21af…
10-14 11:00:32	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	SELL	21	61¢	$13	0x36bc25…