Unkempt-Parchment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$172

Unrealized P&L

-$260

Hit rate

93.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,876

lifetime

Volume

$95.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

$129

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-21 04:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

39% 40% +$93

Politics

34% 40% +$2

Crypto

15% 67% +$78

Tech

8% 0% $-1

Sports

4% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No		+162	$106	74¢	$119	+$13	07-04 09:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+777	$283	1¢	$10	$-273	07-04 19:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran be said during the first episode of the joe rogan experience for the week april 5	13	$5.5K	5,652	0	+5,652	open	—	03-31 22:13
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	56	$5.5K	3,792	1,993	+1,799	open	—	05-26 10:55
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	39	$3.5K	2,442	3,219	-777	open	—	04-01 11:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	26	$2.7K	1,684	1,684	+0	open	—	05-27 05:58
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	51	$2.5K	1,624	1,618	+6	open	—	05-13 11:46
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	47	$2.4K	3,480	2,605	+875	open	—	04-01 18:08
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	49	$2.4K	3,088	2,861	+227	open	—	07-01 20:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	23	$2.4K	7,330	999	+6,331	open	—	04-09 18:56
will holy shit be said on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 15	64	$2.1K	2,451	329	+2,122	open	—	03-11 07:12
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	24	$1.5K	1,554	1,776	-222	open	—	04-14 15:46
will crypto or bitcoin be said on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	14	$1.4K	1,617	0	+1,617	open	—	03-24 20:29
will john oliver say iran on last week tonight	3	$1.3K	1,420	0	+1,420	open	—	02-23 10:57
will powell say fed or federal reserve 7 times during march press conference 712 816	37	$1.3K	2,353	22	+2,331	open	—	03-12 06:49
will egypt reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120761	10	$1.3K	2,147	2,147	+0	open	—	06-10 11:19
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	38	$1.2K	1,776	1,554	+222	open	—	03-31 18:43
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	11	$1.2K	600	782	-182	open	—	06-16 18:33
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	7	$1.1K	555	555	+0	open	—	06-29 14:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	18	$931	666	555	+111	open	—	06-12 13:42
will iran reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120760	9	$908	2,232	2,232	+0	open	—	06-10 11:19
will trump say mass destruction this week march 1	1	$897	906	0	+906	open	—	02-25 03:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	18	$848	566	566	+0	open	—	05-24 14:27
will epstein be said on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	11	$844	862	0	+862	open	—	03-24 19:21
over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	20	$830	1,365	1,071	+294	open	—	07-17 13:48
will jamie be said 10 times on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	16	$803	865	120	+745	open	—	03-24 19:05
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	15	$794	555	555	+0	open	—	06-28 12:27
over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	25	$776	777	589	+188	open	—	07-17 11:44
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	6	$740	466	466	+0	open	—	06-25 13:34
will matrix be said during the first episode of the joe rogan experience for the week april 5	4	$729	741	0	+741	open	—	03-31 17:49
will oil be said on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	17	$729	845	0	+845	open	—	03-24 20:28
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	75	$704	3,047	2,792	+255	open	—	07-08 05:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 07:57:12	will nvidia be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260717155813229	No	SELL	61	21¢	$13	0xf49c08…
07-21 04:53:52	will nvidia be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260717155813229	No	BUY	62	15¢	$9	0x4c9908…
07-20 15:35:25	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	1,111	0¢	$6	0xbb793b…
07-20 14:32:34	will fuck or fucking be said 10 times during the first joe rogan experience of the week of july 20 20260714183012851	No	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0xf3d9f6…
07-20 03:14:49	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	SELL	111	91¢	$101	0x5c91df…
07-18 21:17:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	111	85¢	$94	0x517ba9…
07-18 20:53:15	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	BUY	111	87¢	$97	0x7535da…
07-18 15:32:01	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	111	66¢	$73	0x6e8a32…
07-18 15:24:09	credible fdv above 30m one day after launch 20260708144505952	Yes	SELL	49	4¢	$2	0xbd4dc0…
07-18 12:25:16	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	SELL	106	92¢	$98	0xdecebf…
07-18 09:30:01	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x89db19…
07-18 08:53:30	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	270	72¢	$195	0x9cb4e9…
07-18 06:20:13	credible fdv above 30m one day after launch 20260708144505952	Yes	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0x1f16fd…
07-18 06:17:52	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0x5d517b…
07-17 19:10:52	credible fdv above 30m one day after launch 20260708144505952	Yes	BUY	38	2¢	$1	0xa01ede…
07-17 19:03:04	credible fdv above 30m one day after launch 20260708144505952	Yes	BUY	73	2¢	$2	0xa387fa…
07-17 16:32:33	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x4e3bc5…
07-17 15:20:15	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0xae6712…
07-17 13:48:30	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	33	67¢	$22	0x38f17d…
07-17 12:56:58	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	111	70¢	$78	0x798eef…
07-17 12:48:49	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	111	74¢	$82	0xaf9b92…
07-17 12:42:42	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	35	77¢	$27	0x2a0ee6…
07-17 12:37:51	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	37	77¢	$28	0x5cb61a…
07-17 11:44:09	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0xe6b53d…
07-17 11:42:07	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	SELL	31	5¢	$2	0xd38531…
07-17 11:39:28	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	111	75¢	$83	0xbe678d…
07-17 10:12:04	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xc5e2a5…
07-17 08:53:10	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	BUY	111	6¢	$7	0xb73f1d…
07-17 08:51:48	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	SELL	111	23¢	$26	0x282a35…
07-17 08:21:30	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	SELL	111	7¢	$8	0x979536…
07-17 07:50:52	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	SELL	111	23¢	$26	0x7d24d7…
07-17 06:32:30	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	BUY	111	6¢	$7	0x2b6f3f…
07-17 05:07:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x3ae3fc…
07-17 03:36:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0x9d5d80…
07-16 16:14:41	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	16	91¢	$14	0x49d295…
07-16 16:14:41	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x076494…
07-16 16:14:40	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0xb30749…
07-16 16:14:40	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0x70e11e…
07-16 16:14:40	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0x108d53…
07-16 16:03:10	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x550110…
07-16 16:02:16	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	132	91¢	$120	0xcb7fe8…
07-16 14:58:34	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x29965e…
07-16 14:47:44	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0xb47666…
07-16 13:12:32	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0xb1b2e1…
07-16 12:59:26	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	BUY	90	19¢	$17	0xf5431f…
07-16 07:45:56	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	BUY	111	82¢	$91	0x45a832…
07-16 05:44:20	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	SELL	161	27¢	$43	0xc22cf4…
07-16 05:44:20	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	SELL	184	27¢	$50	0x9e22cf…
07-16 02:43:05	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	SELL	333	22¢	$73	0xb1dafb…
07-16 01:07:56	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	111	85¢	$94	0xb552a1…
07-16 00:10:07	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	102	86¢	$88	0x39e742…
07-15 23:52:43	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x286692…
07-15 21:29:59	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	BUY	316	21¢	$66	0x5cc456…
07-15 21:29:28	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	BUY	17	21¢	$3	0x023549…
07-15 20:36:13	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	SELL	111	84¢	$93	0xa7cdbd…
07-15 18:52:31	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653	Yes	BUY	111	28¢	$31	0x1b2289…
07-15 16:50:49	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	BUY	111	84¢	$93	0x11511c…
07-15 15:01:11	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653	Yes	BUY	111	35¢	$39	0xc9d220…
07-15 13:37:49	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653	Yes	SELL	99	38¢	$38	0xc15310…
07-15 11:59:22	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653	Yes	BUY	76	28¢	$21	0x6fb4a0…
07-15 11:58:46	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653	Yes	BUY	256	28¢	$72	0x9487e0…
07-15 08:23:34	will starmer say trump during the next pmq 20260702155400720	No	BUY	60	81¢	$49	0xc27bb5…
07-15 07:21:26	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xb8b425…
07-15 07:17:17	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x9380d9…
07-15 07:17:11	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	96	84¢	$80	0x146286…
07-15 06:39:04	will starmer say trump during the next pmq 20260702155400720	No	BUY	82	78¢	$64	0x2fecb2…
07-15 06:38:19	will starmer say united states during the next pmq 20260702155400719	No	BUY	69	63¢	$43	0x171964…
07-15 06:38:13	will starmer say united states during the next pmq 20260702155400719	No	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x2d5d60…
07-15 03:03:35	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	111	77¢	$85	0x8576c8…
07-14 20:11:47	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	91	74¢	$67	0xe0f02d…
07-14 20:11:25	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xd856e0…
07-14 18:34:29	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	55	13¢	$7	0x90d4ee…
07-14 18:23:58	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	25	10¢	$2	0xcee4fc…
07-14 18:05:50	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	4	19¢	$1	0x8e2b97…
07-14 18:05:37	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	111	26¢	$29	0xa90538…
07-14 18:00:01	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	9	19¢	$2	0xdc699d…
07-14 18:00:01	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x6ff47a…
07-14 17:59:59	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xd083e4…
07-14 17:59:59	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xc126ad…
07-14 17:59:59	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xa7f222…
07-14 17:59:59	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x90b3a6…
07-14 17:59:59	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x70fcae…
07-14 17:59:58	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x47273b…
07-14 17:59:58	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x2c6ae5…
07-12 02:45:29	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 24 2026	Yes	SELL	127	21¢	$27	0xa1b80c…
07-11 23:11:59	will erling haaland score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	180	84¢	$151	0xa2d722…
07-11 23:11:38	will erling haaland score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	19	84¢	$16	0x9a5733…
07-11 23:10:52	will erling haaland score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x2534f2…
07-11 22:53:08	will erling haaland score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	144	84¢	$121	0xab8d84…
07-11 08:27:49	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 24 2026	Yes	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x30b3a2…
07-11 08:15:52	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 24 2026	Yes	SELL	9	21¢	$2	0xbdc518…
07-10 11:00:13	will ai be said 35 times during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260707174212414	Yes	BUY	54	24¢	$13	0x2426cf…
07-10 06:19:02	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	31	12¢	$4	0x9f4801…
07-09 17:47:20	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	111	21¢	$23	0x27da11…
07-08 14:25:20	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	No	SELL	23	13¢	$3	0x5df7d7…
07-08 14:23:40	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	No	SELL	171	15¢	$26	0x85a879…
07-08 14:19:50	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	No	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xb1ab79…
07-08 14:16:32	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	No	SELL	43	16¢	$7	0x65374b…
07-08 14:16:17	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	No	SELL	98	16¢	$16	0x242a36…
07-08 14:10:20	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	No	SELL	110	16¢	$18	0x42213d…