Realized P&L
+$4.36K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.35K
Hit rate
87.3%
Resolved
16
Trades
8,173
lifetime
Volume
$2.82M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$345
Open exposure
$8.37K
9 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 17:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Politics
47% 50% +$3,616
Other
40% 50% +$462
Tech
10% 100% +$358
Crypto
3% 100% +$4
Sports
1% 0% $-76
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk • peak 443 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +2,440 $1,264 99¢ $2.4K +$1,141 06-13 15:03
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +2,087 $2,000 100¢ $2.1K +$84 06-21 04:29
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No +1,241 $1,096 100¢ $1.2K +$139 06-25 12:37
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No -1,035 $-1,119 100¢ $-1029 +$90 06-26 03:01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,000 $1,680 28¢ $825 $-855 06-30 15:54
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +466 $419 99¢ $459 +$40 06-02 01:16
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -531 $-340 59¢ $-313 +$27 06-26 23:14
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +6,622 $1,888 $13 $-1,874 06-15 18:13
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +227 $140 $3 $-136 06-10 18:19