Realized P&L
+$171.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$15.2K
Hit rate
76.5%
Resolved
2,005
Trades
13,636
lifetime
Volume
$5.74M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$421
Open exposure
$130.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 18:03
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 283 days
Categories
Other
45% 71% +$110,197
Politics
36% 75% +$37,588
Tech
9% 87% +$37,633
Sports
7% 48% -$30,519
Crypto
2% 68% +$16,700
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$340
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 259 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +25,687 $20,325 98¢ $25.2K +$4,849 10-28 13:01
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +14,427 $13,097 99¢ $14.3K +$1,164 10-28 02:44
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +20,000 $11,600 68¢ $13.7K +$2,100 10-20 05:11
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +13,926 $9,100 97¢ $13.5K +$4,394 10-28 00:05
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +22,341 $9,156 50¢ $11.3K +$2,125 10-27 06:54
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? No +9,388 $8,439 98¢ $9.2K +$785 10-28 00:15
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +13,514 $8,649 66¢ $9.0K +$338 09-22 04:25
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +6,892 $4,843 80¢ $5.5K +$636 10-25 23:32
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes +4,217 $3,671 99¢ $4.2K +$494 10-21 01:40
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes +4,322 $3,760 91¢ $3.9K +$173 10-21 05:31
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +5,000 $3,500 62¢ $3.1K -$375 09-24 11:08
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31? No +2,306 $1,814 99¢ $2.3K +$479 10-15 14:39
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +2,619 $1,547 82¢ $2.2K +$613 09-21 13:04
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +2,143 $1,434 100¢ $2.1K +$709 10-21 20:15
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +2,720 $2,087 77¢ $2.1K +$0 10-25 23:33
US recession by end of 2026? No +2,001 $1,640 92¢ $1.9K +$210 09-16 05:03
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes +1,142 $601 98¢ $1.1K +$519 10-01 01:50
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? No +5,484 $1,058 20¢ $1.1K +$11 10-03 03:31
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +1,107 $669 78¢ $868 +$199 09-27 06:01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +1,857 $1,261 43¢ $799 -$462 08-03 01:05
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +1,006 $724 71¢ $714 -$10 09-11 14:06
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes -962 -$731 55¢ $-524 +$207 05-13 01:58
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +2,619 $2,831 18¢ $458 -$2,373 10-17 07:39
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes +2,127 $1,729 20¢ $428 -$1,301 10-20 17:09
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +930 $725 39¢ $363 -$362 09-23 04:26
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more? No +353 $272 98¢ $346 +$75 10-25 21:53
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +482 $324 58¢ $279 -$45 09-25 19:55
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No +303 $227 85¢ $256 +$29 09-14 01:33
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? Yes +277 $97 52¢ $146 +$49 10-20 02:14
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +175 $145 80¢ $140 -$5 10-28 00:04