Realized P&L
+$88.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$805
Hit rate
76.9%
Resolved
1,647
Trades
29,735
lifetime
Volume
$3.57M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$120
Open exposure
$11.2K
23 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 21:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 192 days
Categories
Other
62% 62% +$81,054
Politics
26% 72% +$4,376
Tech
8% 66% +$3,838
Crypto
4% 44% -$4
Sports
0% 58% -$436
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$83
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
27 active days in 12wk • peak 106 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +4,000 $2,621 58¢ $2.3K -$281 10-26 18:45
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +2,000 $1,800 92¢ $1.8K +$30 10-13 20:41
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +2,000 $1,240 68¢ $1.4K +$110 10-14 15:08
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,711 $658 54¢ $915 +$258 10-27 01:36
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +1,000 $690 70¢ $705 +$15 10-27 16:09
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +1,000 $640 64¢ $635 -$5 10-20 20:36
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +650 $494 94¢ $608 +$114 10-25 08:44
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +750 $655 80¢ $604 -$51 10-20 18:45
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +2,837 $154 12¢ $326 +$172 10-26 14:37
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,018 $185 25¢ $258 +$73 10-25 16:59
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes +300 $176 80¢ $240 +$63 10-26 01:07
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +12,699 $198 2¢ $229 +$30 10-27 19:58
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +526 $141 39¢ $206 +$65 10-26 21:45
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +6,506 $189 3¢ $192 +$3 10-27 22:12
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No +211 $80 76¢ $160 +$80 10-08 00:18
will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500 Yes +494 $60 24¢ $121 +$61 10-22 09:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +3,130 $110 4¢ $116 +$6 10-27 21:50
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +112 $88 96¢ $108 +$20 10-06 13:15
GTA VI released by November 30? Yes +102 $97 96¢ $98 +$1 10-06 05:44
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? No -53 -$51 95¢ $-50 +$1 08-14 10:32
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes -50 -$131 99¢ $-50 +$82 10-06 02:06
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +58 $41 81¢ $47 +$6 10-06 22:29
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +65 $88 62¢ $41 -$48 10-27 20:47