Misguided-Click — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$949

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

8.6%

Resolved

7,276

Trades

32,043

lifetime

Volume

$13.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$16

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 10-29 05:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Other

89% 4% -$1,802

Politics

7% 22% +$1,042

Tech

2% 9% -$46

Pop-Culture

1% 5% -$116

Crypto

1% 8% -$1

Sports

0% 0% -$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	+117	$8	5¢	$6	-$2	10-19 22:06
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	+6	$1	83¢	$5	+$4	04-29 09:27
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	+58	$6	6¢	$3	-$3	06-23 02:41
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+183	$3	1¢	$2	-$1	10-28 17:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on April 24?	11	$43	225	38	+187	Up	+$31	04-24 23:45
spx opens up or down on april 15 2026	7	$34	162	88	+75	Up	+$28	04-15 13:30
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$25	0	50	-50	Yes	-$25	05-31 21:46
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$22	42	25	+17	Up	+$22	05-06 19:57
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	20	$20	533	0	+533	Yes	-$20	05-08 14:33
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 5?	12	$15	196	12	+183	Down	+$5	05-05 19:56
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 5?	11	$14	185	12	+173	Down	+$6	05-05 18:00
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?	5	$14	44	12	+31	No	+$39	04-28 06:24
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	17	$12	417	0	+417	Yes	+$138	05-11 19:58
lmt quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 23 2026 6pt68	3	$12	118	12	+105	No	+$14	04-23 10:30
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	16	$11	317	0	+317	Yes	+$39	05-05 18:54
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top US Netflix show this week?	19	$11	317	0	+317	Yes	+$39	05-04 15:45
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between 350k and 375k?	15	$10	274	0	+274	Yes	-$3	05-01 21:30
will starmer say mr speaker 10 times during the next prime ministers questions event 713	16	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	04-21 00:00
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 30?	14	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	04-30 08:22
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	16	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	05-15 15:47
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 5?	10	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	05-04 21:41
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	10	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	05-06 15:36
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	12	$10	267	0	+267	open	—	05-04 21:29
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on April 30?	13	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	04-30 07:53
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May?	10	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	06-02 09:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	11	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	06-14 21:30
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 5?	12	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	05-05 09:01
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on May 5?	14	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	05-05 08:48
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on April 30?	11	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	04-30 23:10
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 7?	11	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	05-06 20:19
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	10	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	05-04 22:48
Will Trump praise King Charles III by May 31, 2026?	10	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	04-29 00:54
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 68°F or higher on May 5?	11	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	05-03 04:32
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	10	$10	267	0	+267	Yes	-$10	06-07 01:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 05:15:37	Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x605e29…
10-28 17:35:01	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf907e7…
10-28 15:34:46	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	No	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xd01270…
10-28 15:31:41	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x875032…
10-28 14:29:19	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	No	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x8bd56a…
10-28 06:29:41	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0x4e345c…
10-28 02:11:03	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0xb7a027…
10-19 22:06:27	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0x7d553a…
10-19 22:06:27	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x384ec6…
10-19 10:32:42	Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?	No	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0x9036aa…
10-19 10:32:41	Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa7cc56…
10-19 10:32:41	Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4a9720…
09-24 19:04:56	Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	Aurora Young Blood	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xa4a877…
09-23 22:57:41	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xe43695…
09-23 22:57:41	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa52d34…
09-22 21:45:44	Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	Aurora Young Blood	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x5ff1f5…
09-17 09:24:46	Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	Aurora Young Blood	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x9cfe97…
09-17 08:46:24	Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	Aurora Young Blood	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xc26101…
09-06 03:00:19	Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x8320b8…
09-05 15:06:30	Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	Aurora Young Blood	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf28603…
09-04 01:42:00	Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	Aurora Young Blood	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x980f66…
09-04 01:41:46	Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	Aurora Young Blood	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x8c5535…
09-04 01:41:24	Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	Aurora Young Blood	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x97e1f2…
08-24 19:55:12	Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x907de3…
08-18 18:17:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x20ae30…
08-18 18:09:49	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe8bc83…
08-18 18:06:51	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xa54d3c…
08-14 01:19:09	Will Green Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?	No	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0x3838ea…
08-14 01:18:51	Will Green Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?	No	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x0eabed…
08-11 05:24:06	Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x96d435…
08-06 03:27:15	Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x853cf0…
08-06 03:27:12	Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x9dcb2c…
07-30 22:44:38	Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x39f13d…
07-24 14:23:18	Will Ariana Grande feature Imogen Heap on Petal?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x96c69d…
07-23 20:46:15	Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x26c65f…
07-18 21:58:28	Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x64be80…
07-17 08:58:42	Will Ariana Grande feature Imogen Heap on Petal?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x3255e9…
07-15 22:48:04	Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0x855994…
07-15 20:58:26	Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x7e27db…
07-14 20:41:26	Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa66824…
07-12 22:10:58	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xf22861…
07-11 16:08:22	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x14d99c…
07-11 13:43:37	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb728db…
07-09 11:48:19	Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x330b3b…
07-08 06:02:43	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xdc47af…
07-07 14:31:46	U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	No	BUY	89	1¢	$1	0x340941…
07-05 03:45:47	U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xfa9691…
07-05 02:55:34	U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	No	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xd76078…
07-04 05:16:32	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xa81401…
07-04 05:16:32	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x79621c…
07-03 09:34:11	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x5df574…
07-02 16:57:14	Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x98845a…
07-01 00:39:38	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x97d38f…
06-30 22:13:43	Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0xc13b1e…
06-30 13:29:44	VEO 4 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfaa232…
06-30 05:12:43	Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf9fd92…
06-29 23:10:41	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	2¢	$1	0x8881cb…
06-29 18:58:20	Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0xff22cb…
06-29 12:22:19	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x02c7cc…
06-29 03:21:34	Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xc355ae…
06-29 02:03:58	VEO 4 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x65208b…
06-28 22:31:29	Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc02213…
06-28 19:49:49	Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xdaa405…
06-28 19:46:37	Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0xa79609…
06-28 19:42:14	Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xb5f14b…
06-28 19:41:34	Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xc67fae…
06-28 19:41:34	Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x48a11b…
06-28 16:09:16	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x29bc0b…
06-28 11:06:04	Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x28d9b3…
06-28 09:07:13	Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x56987d…
06-28 06:42:04	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	1¢	$1	0x0419a8…
06-28 04:01:25	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xec393e…
06-28 03:29:35	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	1¢	$0	0x401733…
06-28 01:00:37	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x468f72…
06-27 21:25:43	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8e176a…
06-27 18:07:41	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe0556e…
06-27 17:30:25	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	Yes	BUY	29	1¢	$0	0x545e7c…
06-27 04:16:23	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x9da0b6…
06-26 08:05:01	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x6a1b64…
06-25 17:28:29	FaZe roster change Before GTA VI?	No	BUY	65	1¢	$1	0x5e137e…
06-23 10:47:47	Will Ariana Grande feature Imogen Heap on Petal?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x42ddb3…
06-23 10:47:29	Will Ariana Grande feature Imogen Heap on Petal?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xfc72c0…
06-23 02:41:20	Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0xdaf987…
06-22 22:55:44	Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x1b9f4a…
06-22 22:54:34	Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x17b2aa…
06-22 22:48:22	Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0x980bb5…
06-20 22:02:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x50eb69…
06-20 12:21:55	Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0xa0dae4…
06-18 21:23:07	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x9bd183…
06-18 20:53:43	Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x1f298b…
06-18 18:16:26	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0xec7779…
06-18 18:16:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x1a621d…
06-18 15:32:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0x20e9c5…
06-18 15:30:41	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x91b6ea…
06-17 23:06:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	0	13¢	$0	0x63dadd…
06-17 18:00:43	Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?	No	BUY	32	1¢	$0	0x91ebeb…
06-17 18:00:35	Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?	No	BUY	31	1¢	$0	0xa96ccb…
06-17 18:00:35	Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?	No	BUY	38	1¢	$0	0x2df886…
06-17 18:00:34	Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?	No	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x57ad9a…
06-17 18:00:34	Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x5003eb…