Realized P&L
+$431
Unrealized P&L
+$50
Hit rate
66.1%
Resolved
28
Trades
36,564
lifetime
Volume
$366.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$601
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-10 07:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Other
60% 39% $-24
Politics
19% 100% +$45
Sports
10% 0% $-6
Crypto
6% 17% +$416
Tech
6%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
30 active days in 12wk • peak 313 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +273 $96 34¢ $91 $-4 07-07 23:00
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,061 $95 $90 $-5 06-25 09:40
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +507 $39 11¢ $53 +$15 07-07 22:57
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +263 $23 16¢ $43 +$20 07-06 14:08
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +216 $23 17¢ $37 +$14 07-08 21:57
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes +329 $42 10¢ $31 $-11 07-08 16:16
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 Yes +169 $29 16¢ $28 $-1 07-07 16:05
New pandemic in 2026? Yes +357 $35 $23 $-12 06-25 01:18
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No +24 $7 92¢ $22 +$15 07-02 18:25
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? No -38 $-16 51¢ $-19 $-3 07-08 12:47
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes -129 $-34 11¢ $-14 +$21 07-07 03:19
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +21 $7 62¢ $13 +$6 07-08 23:10
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +375 $-3 $13 +$16 06-06 13:08
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Yes +235 $23 $13 $-11 06-08 06:16
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? Yes +69 $17 15¢ $10 $-7 06-08 12:51
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? Yes -230 $-8 $-10 $-1 06-08 07:59
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes -81 $-13 12¢ $-9 +$4 06-25 08:22
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? Yes +30 $9 31¢ $9 +$0 07-07 13:23
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes -163 $-12 $-8 +$4 06-24 17:16
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? Yes +41 $8 20¢ $8 $-1 07-06 01:05
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes +43 $13 18¢ $8 $-5 07-05 15:02
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +26 $8 30¢ $8 $-0 06-08 09:04
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? Yes -11 $-5 70¢ $-8 $-2 07-09 18:39
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? No -9 $-5 73¢ $-7 $-2 06-25 12:02
Deel IPO before 2027? Yes +142 $16 $6 $-9 06-06 18:50
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Yes -164 $-7 $-5 +$3 06-24 07:04
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes -16 $-6 26¢ $-4 +$1 07-10 05:27
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes -12 $-7 31¢ $-4 +$4 06-01 21:51
Will Donald Trump visit Washington in 2026? Yes +16 $2 22¢ $3 +$1 06-24 18:14
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year? No +9 $3 34¢ $3 +$1 06-22 18:08