Firsthand-Fratricide 0x5e2c90…4c5dc1
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Realized P&L
-$181
Unrealized P&L
-$15
Hit rate
74.6%
Resolved
25
Trades
1,362
lifetime
Volume
$21.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$16
Open exposure
$586
27 positions
First seen
2026-04-07
last 06-29 19:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
43% 75% $-114
Other
42% 61% $-61
Crypto
9% — —
Sports
5% 67% $-6
Tech
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +90 $81 100¢ $90 +$9 06-21 08:53
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +70 $69 100¢ $70 +$1 06-24 18:05
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +40 $40 100¢ $40 +$0 06-22 00:21
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No +40 $39 100¢ $40 +$1 06-14 11:14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -40 $-36 86¢ $-35 +$1 06-21 05:08
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +40 $33 86¢ $34 +$1 06-25 21:45
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No +30 $29 100¢ $30 +$1 05-29 14:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No +30 $30 100¢ $30 +$0 06-23 20:00
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No +30 $30 100¢ $30 +$0 06-04 16:27
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No +20 $20 100¢ $20 +$0 05-29 14:57
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No +20 $20 97¢ $19 $-0 06-24 15:08
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No -20 $-19 94¢ $-19 $-0 06-29 17:03
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes +20 $19 94¢ $19 $-0 06-03 21:25
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +20 $19 94¢ $19 $-0 06-03 14:13
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +20 $15 84¢ $17 +$2 05-28 18:11
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 06-09 13:53
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +40 $16 24¢ $10 $-6 06-14 16:28
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +10 $9 94¢ $9 +$0 06-09 16:26
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -10 $-9 86¢ $-9 +$1 06-24 09:22
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +10 $9 81¢ $8 $-1 06-08 03:28
Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -100 $-6 8¢ $-8 $-3 05-29 10:12
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +11 $9 70¢ $8 $-1 06-06 17:43
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +10 $6 66¢ $7 +$1 06-10 16:45
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? No -6 $-5 90¢ $-5 $-0 06-13 09:59
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? No +100 $1 2¢ $2 +$1 06-22 20:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +42 $10 0¢ $0 $-10 06-14 17:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes +70 $13 0¢ $0 $-12 06-13 15:56