Sudden-Snowstorm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$229

Hit rate

93.6%

Resolved

525

Trades

44,974

lifetime

Volume

$17.4M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$387

Open exposure

$1.49K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 23:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Other

68% 99% $-17,428

Crypto

16% 100% +$158

Politics

12% 100% +$20

Tech

2% 100% +$2

Sports

1% 100% +$3

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 535 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	No		+1,491	$1,135	92¢	$1.4K	+$229	07-14 22:53
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 on May 14?	Yes		+123	$123	100¢	$123	+$0	05-14 20:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	108	$205.8K	100,172	109,557	-9,386	open	—	03-31 00:34
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	29	$141.0K	70,882	70,960	-78	open	—	01-03 19:03
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	52	$114.7K	64,490	50,500	+13,990	open	—	02-03 00:45
us strikes iran by feb 28 odds 30 by friday	17	$99.6K	99,761	0	+99,761	open	—	02-04 20:33
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	383	$99.3K	64,171	35,654	+28,518	open	—	03-03 19:17
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	227	$80.5K	39,238	41,419	-2,181	open	—	02-01 00:37
russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	41	$80.3K	50,300	30,300	+20,000	open	—	03-17 10:50
another us government shutdown by february 14	55	$79.8K	80,235	0	+80,235	open	—	02-15 05:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$69.9K	70,000	0	+70,000	open	—	06-17 16:42
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	56	$69.1K	53,230	16,017	+37,213	open	—	04-25 22:11
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	38	$68.1K	68,464	0	+68,464	open	—	02-03 20:03
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	5	$62.9K	63,000	0	+63,000	open	—	03-04 18:21
Will the US strike Syria next?	14	$60.9K	61,025	0	+61,025	open	—	02-04 23:59
us strike on somalia by february 7 553	71	$60.3K	60,555	0	+60,555	open	—	02-11 08:55
bitcoin above 92k on january 6	67	$56.5K	56,585	0	+56,585	open	—	01-06 18:27
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	16	$53.9K	52,003	2,003	+50,000	open	—	04-08 11:45
spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	27	$53.8K	53,846	0	+53,846	open	—	03-02 15:09
will russia strike kyiv on february 5 2026	70	$52.7K	52,834	0	+52,834	open	—	02-07 22:10
will russia capture all of kupiansk by january 31	128	$51.4K	36,179	15,631	+20,548	open	—	01-31 20:53
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	17	$51.4K	52,000	2,000	+50,000	open	—	04-08 12:39
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	7	$49.9K	45,630	4,443	+41,187	open	—	01-04 02:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$49.9K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	04-09 10:59
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	21	$49.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	06-03 17:25
bitcoin up or down february 15 8am et	135	$48.3K	47,433	1,000	+46,433	open	—	02-15 15:11
will donald trump say nuclear 3 times during israel president events on december 29	43	$48.2K	23,716	24,602	-886	open	—	01-03 14:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	95	$47.5K	22,924	25,492	-2,568	open	—	05-31 17:59
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	66	$46.7K	23,041	23,887	-846	open	—	01-30 09:01
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	34	$45.0K	37,358	7,902	+29,456	open	—	03-10 10:15
russia strike on kyiv municipality by january 10 2026 538 895	31	$43.2K	43,305	0	+43,305	open	—	01-09 01:10
spx opens up or down on march 3 2026	18	$41.7K	36,453	5,357	+31,096	open	—	03-03 22:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 23:15:15	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	250	95¢	$237	0x4131bb…
07-20 22:28:40	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,950	0x909e65…
07-20 22:12:09	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0xb18ad7…
07-20 20:59:48	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	200	94¢	$189	0x5444af…
07-20 20:34:45	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,970	0x9174aa…
07-20 20:21:37	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,975	0x68661e…
07-20 20:10:13	ewy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xdfe06b…
07-20 19:08:09	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x98099f…
07-20 16:43:07	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x75c620…
07-20 16:40:04	will aapl dip to 324 by july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x5b2f9a…
07-20 13:39:34	will googl reach 355 by july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x1ad5af…
07-20 13:38:51	will nflx dip to 67 50 by july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x8493d3…
07-20 13:31:52	will hood reach 100 by july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	846	100¢	$845	0x3a5d2c…
07-20 11:02:13	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,970	0xb25e21…
07-20 08:41:58	will bad bunny attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357135	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x4a896e…
07-20 07:52:21	will elon post soccer on x this week 20260710173822735	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0xa9dc32…
07-20 06:34:39	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,979	0x895bd4…
07-20 06:32:06	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,990	0xcb5b42…
07-20 02:25:39	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$965	0x9639a2…
07-19 22:12:34	will timothee chalamet attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357134	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0xd6982f…
07-19 22:08:36	will king felipe vi attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357115	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x547e86…
07-19 17:38:18	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	554	96¢	$532	0x461377…
07-19 16:12:07	bitcoin up or down on july 19 2026	Up	BUY	1,000	97¢	$970	0x80d95c…
07-19 16:11:24	bitcoin up or down on july 19 2026	Up	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x943341…
07-19 16:11:21	bitcoin up or down on july 19 2026	Up	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x491759…
07-19 16:11:09	bitcoin up or down on july 19 2026	Up	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x668eb8…
07-19 16:10:01	bitcoin up or down on july 19 2026	Up	BUY	500	99¢	$495	0xbf4da8…
07-19 16:01:27	bitcoin up or down on july 19 2026	Up	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0xf84e6e…
07-19 07:46:04	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	199	94¢	$187	0x49af42…
07-18 22:10:09	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x583771…
07-18 18:24:36	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	128	92¢	$118	0xeaae7d…
07-18 18:13:00	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	451	94¢	$422	0x59d185…
07-18 18:02:21	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x0a9703…
07-18 18:02:16	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	200	94¢	$187	0x7df226…
07-18 17:58:22	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xed6948…
07-18 17:56:30	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x57640b…
07-18 08:29:39	Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x47b33f…
07-18 06:49:01	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 17 2026 20260716190353337	No	SELL	2,437	100¢	$2,434	0x98eac0…
07-18 06:31:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	1,739	100¢	$1,737	0x90108c…
07-18 06:31:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	2,002	100¢	$2,000	0x8f6143…
07-18 06:01:58	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	2,002	100¢	$2,000	0x7fd546…
07-18 06:01:58	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	2,002	100¢	$2,000	0x1c8d7f…
07-18 04:28:06	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x6f4e30…
07-18 03:07:42	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x0b38e6…
07-17 21:22:28	will wti reach 85 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x6810ba…
07-17 21:00:10	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4pm et	Down	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x93c994…
07-17 20:18:45	will nflx dip to 65 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	269	100¢	$268	0xf5f379…
07-17 20:17:22	will open dip to 4 25 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xdcf71c…
07-17 20:05:07	pltr above 133 on july 17 2026	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x5a58c5…
07-17 20:05:06	pltr above 132 on july 17 2026	Yes	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0xd0f82a…
07-17 20:05:06	tsla above 380 on july 17 2026	Yes	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x73012e…
07-17 20:01:33	will rklb reach 86 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0x63e6d2…
07-17 19:45:46	will hood reach 122 50 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	990	100¢	$989	0x0e1147…
07-17 19:45:42	will hood reach 120 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	431	100¢	$431	0x932141…
07-17 19:44:49	will hood reach 117 50 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	567	100¢	$567	0xadffd2…
07-17 19:44:45	will hood reach 117 50 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	343	100¢	$342	0x23cab7…
07-17 19:43:13	will meta reach 690 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	1,299	100¢	$1,298	0x027b23…
07-17 19:42:34	will meta dip to 620 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	665	100¢	$664	0xaf0560…
07-17 19:42:07	will meta dip to 610 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	842	100¢	$841	0xc48e11…
07-17 19:40:06	will googl dip to 325 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	259	100¢	$259	0x8843ff…
07-17 19:00:49	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 17 2026 20260716190353337	No	SELL	1,134	100¢	$1,133	0xf57802…
07-17 18:21:51	over 75m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xdbd232…
07-17 17:02:48	over 60m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325657 955	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x632e26…
07-17 17:02:37	over 55m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0xffb3be…
07-17 17:02:25	over 50m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325656	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x535c82…
07-17 16:28:09	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0xbac12d…
07-17 14:58:06	will meta dip to 630 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xbcebf9…
07-17 13:51:13	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 17 2026 20260716190353337	No	BUY	1,111	100¢	$1,105	0x20988c…
07-17 13:43:22	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x83cbaf…
07-17 10:29:10	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 17 2026 20260716190353337	No	BUY	158	99¢	$157	0x4eb018…
07-17 06:51:57	will haley thogmartin be evicted in big brother season 28 week 1 20260710020428901	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0e65b5…
07-17 06:51:46	will yash patel be evicted in big brother season 28 week 1 20260710020428910	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x794d6f…
07-17 06:15:48	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 17 2026 20260716190353337	No	BUY	1,171	100¢	$1,165	0xdc07a3…
07-17 06:08:06	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 17 2026 20260716190353337	No	BUY	780	100¢	$776	0x5175b9…
07-17 05:52:12	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x5abe86…
07-17 05:52:09	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x50e962…
07-17 05:52:07	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	656	92¢	$603	0x9c572d…
07-17 05:52:07	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	2	92¢	$1	0x3e01a3…
07-17 05:52:07	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x37dab4…
07-17 05:38:07	will yash patel be evicted in big brother season 28 week 1 20260710020428910	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc8d6ba…
07-17 05:38:03	will dee valladares be evicted in big brother season 28 week 1 20260712230407455	No	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0xaa1c1a…
07-17 05:09:34	will melody morris be evicted in big brother season 28 week 1 20260710020428907	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x1a658e…
07-17 05:09:04	will drew campbell be evicted in big brother season 28 week 1 20260710020428900	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0xee9e87…
07-17 04:38:06	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	135	89¢	$120	0x2ef172…
07-17 04:26:18	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 16 20260713194149000	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x79dc90…
07-17 00:44:19	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0x8265be…
07-17 00:41:02	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	66	89¢	$59	0x4e96bd…
07-17 00:38:58	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0x22a1df…
07-17 00:37:02	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	22	89¢	$19	0x257008…
07-16 23:22:25	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x99202e…
07-16 22:56:58	wti up or down on july 16 2026	Down	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x227646…
07-16 22:34:14	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x90279e…
07-16 22:32:47	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x564008…
07-16 22:32:44	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	1,242	94¢	$1,161	0x4ca85a…
07-16 22:11:58	spx up or down on july 16 2026	Down	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x38603c…
07-16 22:11:56	spx up or down on july 16 2026	Down	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xfafe53…
07-16 21:59:07	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x645530…
07-16 21:44:17	spx up or down on july 16 2026	Down	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xa2a10c…
07-16 21:34:47	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 17 2026 20260716190353337	No	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0xb33bf7…
07-16 21:26:29	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	826	95¢	$783	0x7b0c69…