Realized P&L
-$7.61K
Unrealized P&L
-$2.34K
Hit rate
67.7%
Resolved
235
Trades
3,211
lifetime
Volume
$793.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$247
Open exposure
$10.9K
8 positions
First seen
2026-03-19
last 07-21 15:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 81 days
Categories
Politics
46%
71%
-$15,139
Other
33%
46%
+$25,996
Sports
16%
55%
-$15,168
Tech
6%
73%
-$3,300
Crypto
0%
0%
-$1
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-21).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | -5,000 | -$2,937 | 92¢ | $-4625 | -$1,688 | 06-26 18:16 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | -2,000 | -$1,810 | 97¢ | $-1939 | -$129 | 06-16 03:37 | |
| Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | -2,000 | -$1,574 | 96¢ | $-1910 | -$336 | 06-27 03:16 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | No | -6,505 | -$1,016 | 19¢ | $-1236 | -$220 | 06-24 16:36 | |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | -929 | -$790 | 94¢ | $-878 | -$88 | 05-31 21:51 | |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Yes | -2,072 | -$401 | 15¢ | $-301 | +$101 | 06-22 02:06 | |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | -6,373 | -$43 | 0¢ | $-32 | +$11 | 05-16 14:32 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +0 | -$7 | 96¢ | $0 | +$7 | 05-24 13:05 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 174 | $42.1K | 150,000 | 140,000 | +10,000 | No | -$9,182 | 07-19 11:04 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026 | 5 | $30.0K | 20,000 | 20,000 | +0 | No | +$10,000 | 04-16 04:06 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 56 | $28.3K | 18,834 | 18,834 | +0 | No | +$7,066 | 07-07 16:03 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 93 | $18.9K | 232,000 | 132,000 | +100,000 | No | -$4,386 | 06-29 16:50 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | 97 | $14.5K | 17,000 | 0 | +17,000 | Yes | +$2,452 | 07-05 19:38 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | 14 | $14.3K | 15,115 | 6,965 | +8,149 | Yes | -$2,586 | 07-20 15:33 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | 9 | $13.8K | 8,094 | 8,094 | +0 | No | +$2,281 | 04-29 16:11 |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 41 | $13.6K | 12,794 | 12,794 | +0 | Yes | +$206 | 07-19 01:48 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 6 | $12.5K | 7,000 | 7,000 | +0 | No | +$1,483 | 05-05 05:37 |
| Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? | 11 | $12.4K | 9,000 | 4,090 | +4,909 | No | +$575 | 06-23 03:58 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | 41 | $12.2K | 15,948 | 15,948 | +0 | Yes | -$5,012 | 04-16 16:21 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | 24 | $11.4K | 6,500 | 6,500 | +0 | No | +$900 | 04-17 08:57 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 27 | $11.4K | 7,000 | 7,000 | +0 | No | +$2,546 | 05-31 10:35 |
| will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811 | 4 | $10.5K | 15,000 | 0 | +15,000 | No | +$4,466 | 06-27 11:45 |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | 18 | $10.5K | 14,500 | 0 | +14,500 | Yes | -$10,513 | 04-16 14:35 |
| mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155 | 3 | $10.4K | 10,977 | 0 | +10,977 | No | +$608 | 07-12 17:33 |
| will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election | 27 | $10.1K | 11,680 | 0 | +11,680 | Yes | +$1,585 | 04-12 15:03 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? | 42 | $10.1K | 9,114 | 8,590 | +524 | No | +$1,162 | 04-17 16:22 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026 | 185 | $9.5K | 80,000 | 0 | +80,000 | Yes | -$9,452 | 04-16 17:29 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 13 | $9.3K | 4,900 | 4,900 | +0 | No | +$450 | 05-31 16:15 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1 | $9.3K | 10,000 | 0 | +10,000 | No | +$730 | 06-20 08:51 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | 11 | $8.9K | 5,000 | 5,000 | +0 | No | +$1,015 | 04-29 14:26 |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | 13 | $8.7K | 10,129 | 0 | +10,129 | Yes | +$1,411 | 06-22 12:31 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | 7 | $8.7K | 6,015 | 6,015 | -0 | No | +$1,627 | 06-09 18:16 |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 24 | $8.5K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | Yes | -$2,089 | 05-30 17:26 |
| israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026 | 6 | $8.4K | 10,000 | 0 | +10,000 | No | +$1,556 | 06-22 12:29 |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | 4 | $8.1K | 5,000 | 5,000 | +0 | No | +$1,805 | 05-31 09:41 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | 64 | $7.9K | 6,151 | 3,529 | +2,621 | Yes | +$1,741 | 05-31 10:55 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | 20 | $7.7K | 23,983 | 13,983 | +10,000 | Yes | +$453 | 05-31 10:07 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | 7 | $7.7K | 10,009 | 0 | +10,009 | No | +$2,288 | 05-28 16:52 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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