Sardonic-Patty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$685

Hit rate

90.4%

Resolved

638

Trades

7,971

lifetime

Volume

$8.61M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.08K

Open exposure

$645

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-16

last 09-18 01:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 88 days

Categories

Politics

42% 91% -$57,710

Other

38% 83% +$17,124

Crypto

10% 83% +$20,604

Tech

8% 95% +$7,343

Sports

3% 52% +$1,129

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 104 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No		+645	$271	93¢	$600	+$329	08-01 03:21
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes		+645	$1,059	7¢	$45	-$1,014	08-01 03:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	18	$689.1K	440,273	251,444	+188,829	No	+$1,108	06-03 23:48
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	168	$487.1K	264,286	228,930	+35,356	Yes	+$1,537	05-29 02:15
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	171	$272.9K	208,450	76,783	+131,667	No	+$2,424	05-22 22:16
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	74	$266.8K	133,688	135,400	-1,712	Yes	+$310	06-01 00:07
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	46	$176.2K	176,590	0	+176,590	No	+$353	06-13 00:50
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	94	$175.7K	114,589	63,752	+50,837	No	+$824	05-21 00:58
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	3	$170.1K	170,320	0	+170,320	No	+$191	06-09 00:17
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	1	$164.8K	165,000	0	+165,000	No	+$165	06-10 04:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	3	$164.2K	164,333	0	+164,333	No	+$164	06-08 04:41
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	36	$163.0K	219,012	71,790	+147,222	Yes	+$174	06-07 20:13
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	177	$137.5K	98,212	41,296	+56,916	No	+$891	05-21 01:36
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	80	$135.7K	136,415	0	+136,415	No	+$693	07-28 18:07
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	110	$108.9K	72,480	72,480	+0	No	-$32,129	05-23 09:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	39	$102.8K	101,545	1,545	+100,000	No	+$122	05-23 05:02
fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 2pt5	188	$99.9K	100,000	0	+100,000	Over	+$100	06-23 00:51
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	3	$98.1K	98,297	0	+98,297	No	+$197	06-11 05:35
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	65	$97.4K	66,544	66,544	+0	No	-$33,061	05-23 09:36
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 4 2026	25	$95.8K	95,864	0	+95,864	Yes	+$96	06-04 19:07
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	50	$94.1K	56,327	56,327	+0	Yes	+$14,525	06-01 12:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	29	$91.0K	43,912	47,227	-3,315	No	-$3	05-19 14:20
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	23	$90.3K	90,482	0	+90,482	No	+$157	05-30 18:26
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	1	$89.9K	90,000	0	+90,000	No	+$90	05-29 04:02
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	12	$89.6K	89,718	0	+89,718	No	+$110	07-30 00:31
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	3	$88.0K	44,401	44,401	+0	No	+$136	06-07 19:19
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?	8	$87.6K	87,704	0	+87,704	Yes	+$126	05-28 05:14
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	44	$84.8K	81,605	4,923	+76,682	Yes	+$477	05-28 16:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	35	$78.9K	38,373	41,051	-2,678	No	+$347	05-30 00:53
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	286	$74.6K	136,745	0	+136,745	Yes	-$10,343	07-29 17:50
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	5	$73.3K	73,333	0	+73,333	No	+$73	07-04 16:21
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	78	$70.9K	44,779	32,377	+12,402	No	+$3,012	06-12 17:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-18 01:55:54	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	SELL	57	74¢	$42	0x987946…
09-18 01:55:27	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	1,849	99¢	$1,830	0xfeb8e7…
09-15 22:56:22	Will the Seattle Seahawks make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	163	65¢	$106	0xda6f54…
09-14 00:02:37	Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	226	60¢	$136	0x9323e6…
09-13 23:49:21	Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x6248b5…
09-12 00:09:16	Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1,501	60¢	$901	0x27a875…
09-12 00:07:48	Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xdde60d…
09-06 16:09:39	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,740	33¢	$574	0x241229…
08-29 09:11:46	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	2,679	72¢	$1,929	0x0537fc…
08-29 09:08:09	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	57	72¢	$41	0x4ea2fc…
08-29 09:07:13	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	2,000	72¢	$1,440	0x053265…
08-29 01:01:03	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x0d2b6e…
08-28 12:40:16	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x86ad9f…
08-27 12:37:00	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	50	72¢	$36	0xfbfe68…
08-26 13:00:33	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	10	72¢	$8	0xe78373…
08-26 09:26:46	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	1,000	72¢	$720	0xd57fdc…
08-26 08:37:57	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	14	72¢	$10	0xe6df72…
08-25 21:55:42	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	17	72¢	$12	0x181ccd…
08-25 20:01:15	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	50	72¢	$36	0x936a64…
08-25 18:36:13	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xd83ec7…
08-25 18:33:09	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	110	72¢	$80	0xc4b6b1…
08-24 18:29:28	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	323	39¢	$126	0x23ed1d…
08-24 17:33:45	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0xc5b13b…
08-21 23:19:55	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	108	64¢	$69	0x303187…
08-21 22:30:03	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	453	64¢	$290	0x136e28…
08-21 22:18:54	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	64¢	$0	0xf6fe30…
08-21 22:12:57	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0x854396…
08-21 22:11:49	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	64¢	$29	0x6b8f1e…
08-21 22:08:43	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xa52dbc…
08-21 22:08:42	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0x5d135d…
08-21 22:08:40	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0x958ffd…
08-21 22:08:39	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0xaa52a6…
08-21 22:08:37	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0x9786b6…
08-21 22:08:36	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0x84f94d…
08-21 21:40:36	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	67¢	$11	0x5851be…
08-21 21:37:36	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	67¢	$7	0x4d4637…
08-21 21:30:58	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x3c917e…
08-21 21:27:13	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	70¢	$174	0x73459a…
08-20 21:55:25	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0x5fe1bf…
08-20 21:54:55	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x985ace…
08-20 21:52:55	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,360	74¢	$1,007	0x265ba4…
08-18 01:31:54	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	3,830	65¢	$2,490	0xbebe13…
08-17 23:24:15	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	170	65¢	$110	0x8dec78…
08-17 22:00:52	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	3,737	63¢	$2,354	0xf1ae7c…
08-17 20:32:16	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	44	63¢	$28	0x924784…
08-17 20:32:03	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	125	63¢	$79	0x3d0a36…
08-16 20:39:54	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	100	65¢	$65	0xb04346…
08-16 18:07:30	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	27	65¢	$17	0x4006b2…
08-16 18:07:24	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	1,699	65¢	$1,104	0x72266b…
08-15 21:47:24	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	200	71¢	$142	0x71aeab…
08-15 18:33:00	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	300	71¢	$213	0xc28a4e…
08-13 18:38:36	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	6,461	59¢	$3,812	0x98b4dd…
08-11 17:26:15	will russia target kyiv on august 11 2026 20260810162903046	Yes	BUY	710	90¢	$639	0x678bba…
08-11 17:25:22	will russia target kyiv on august 11 2026 20260810162903046	Yes	BUY	3,700	83¢	$3,071	0xb43f7d…
08-11 01:42:06	will russia target kyiv by august 14 2026 20260809090411471	Yes	BUY	3,252	99¢	$3,210	0xa00a02…
08-11 01:25:49	will russia target kyiv by august 14 2026 20260809090411471	Yes	BUY	414	99¢	$410	0x29a15b…
08-11 01:25:34	will russia target kyiv by august 14 2026 20260809090411471	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x7340ea…
08-11 01:25:04	will russia target kyiv by august 14 2026 20260809090411471	Yes	BUY	4,000	98¢	$3,940	0x809e8b…
08-11 01:24:34	will russia target kyiv by august 14 2026 20260809090411471	Yes	BUY	1,892	98¢	$1,864	0x4b8a9a…
08-11 01:24:18	will russia target kyiv by august 14 2026 20260809090411471	Yes	BUY	914	98¢	$899	0xbf5a98…
08-10 23:18:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	3,584	80¢	$2,867	0x440d61…
08-10 23:13:00	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xe2b6f6…
08-10 23:04:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0x8b360e…
08-10 23:01:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0x70ad28…
08-10 22:57:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x1ca6a0…
08-10 22:57:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	1,062	80¢	$850	0x3ff1a2…
08-10 22:39:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	55	80¢	$44	0xa67eb3…
08-10 18:38:09	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 31 20260808192512607	Yes	BUY	212	94¢	$199	0x6e90a4…
08-10 18:13:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	2,222	88¢	$1,955	0x36027a…
08-10 17:46:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 10 20260807213124699	No	BUY	511	100¢	$510	0x8fa7bc…
08-10 17:34:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 10 20260807213124699	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xd946a7…
08-10 13:19:55	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	133	84¢	$112	0xf27c8e…
08-10 06:57:00	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x1efba6…
08-09 19:22:40	Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	2,000	60¢	$1,200	0xe59c7f…
08-09 19:07:54	Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	2,000	44¢	$880	0x7d35d9…
08-09 18:44:04	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x77d662…
08-09 11:31:36	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	22	63¢	$14	0xfce1ce…
08-09 10:31:36	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	22	63¢	$14	0xd851be…
08-09 09:42:33	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x62da2d…
08-09 09:42:28	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xd8e81b…
08-09 09:42:25	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x41f6ca…
08-09 09:42:24	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x251f71…
08-09 09:31:36	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	22	63¢	$14	0xf5eda6…
08-09 07:31:36	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	22	63¢	$14	0xdbf76f…
08-09 06:30:37	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x706806…
08-09 05:56:49	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0x80ee0d…
08-09 05:56:36	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	42	37¢	$16	0x2180ce…
08-09 05:55:01	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0x69d3ef…
08-09 05:55:00	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x6350f6…
08-09 05:54:49	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xd202b7…
08-09 05:54:03	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x65ebb0…
08-09 05:51:48	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	18	37¢	$7	0x4f0c38…
08-09 05:51:46	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	26	37¢	$10	0xc67b95…
08-09 05:49:57	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	24	37¢	$9	0xada9c3…
08-09 05:49:13	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xe20a6c…
08-09 05:46:58	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	21	37¢	$8	0xddb86f…
08-09 05:46:54	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x4b7fbf…
08-09 05:44:52	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xbad8d8…
08-09 05:43:36	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	129	37¢	$48	0xff6754…
08-09 05:42:48	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-09?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x4aa82f…