Realized P&L
+$1.31K
Unrealized P&L
-$53
Hit rate
69.9%
Resolved
561
Trades
8,625
lifetime
Volume
$404.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$47
Open exposure
$3.27K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-19
last 10-18 23:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 103 days
Categories
Politics
46% 68% +$4,881
Other
41% 56% -$2,662
Crypto
7% 60% -$1,603
Tech
5% 72% +$163
Sports
1% 52% +$665
Pop-Culture
1% 50% -$132
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
11 active days in 12wk • peak 162 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -900 -$776 82¢ $-742 +$34 05-22 05:57
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -700 -$648 98¢ $-687 -$39 05-15 04:59
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +300 $164 90¢ $272 +$108 06-20 14:50
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +250 $70 96¢ $241 +$170 05-22 01:45
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No -200 -$152 95¢ $-190 -$38 05-07 17:02
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +200 $125 82¢ $163 +$37 06-12 18:02
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +150 $77 98¢ $147 +$70 05-19 02:14
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +200 $85 66¢ $133 +$48 05-09 05:45
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No -200 -$118 55¢ $-109 +$9 05-05 07:40
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -110 -$117 97¢ $-106 +$10 05-24 14:58
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -100 -$91 98¢ $-98 -$6 04-28 15:10
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +100 $65 94¢ $94 +$29 05-31 23:34
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +77 $78 92¢ $71 -$7 08-08 18:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +400 $124 18¢ $70 -$54 08-01 03:48
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No +200 $109 34¢ $67 -$42 05-18 12:14
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No +200 $58 18¢ $37 -$21 06-10 07:14
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No +20 $15 68¢ $14 -$1 05-24 08:23
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +250 $262 4¢ $9 -$253 06-14 23:04
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes +100 $18 6¢ $6 -$12 05-19 01:52
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes +77 $12 8¢ $6 -$5 05-21 10:57
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +150 $125 2¢ $3 -$121 08-15 03:32
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes -67 -$4 2¢ $-1 +$2 05-08 14:50
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +340 $65 0¢ $1 -$65 06-05 22:27
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +312 -$19 0¢ $0 +$20 08-18 03:51
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No +0 $0 92¢ $0 $0 05-25 15:11
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +0 -$10 94¢ $0 +$10 06-16 16:34
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +0 $0 94¢ $0 $0 05-18 00:09
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes +0 -$18 9¢ $0 +$18 05-25 12:15
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes -0 $0 1¢ $-0 +$0 05-01 19:13
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes +0 -$47 0¢ $0 +$47 06-23 10:22