Limited-Lute — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$185

Unrealized P&L

-$17

Hit rate

91.1%

Resolved

135

Trades

166

lifetime

Volume

$24.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$147

Open exposure

$100

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-24 09:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Other

49% 79% +$201

Tech

20% 88% +$328

Crypto

13% 91% -$84

Sports

7% 62% +$28

Politics

6% 44% -$553

Pop-Culture

5% 83% -$104

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+103	$72	83¢	$86	+$14	10-05 17:28
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+58	$15	12¢	$7	-$8	09-05 09:26
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	+68	$15	6¢	$4	-$11	08-07 07:38
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+100	$15	3¢	$3	-$12	09-05 09:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 620 639	1	$1.3K	1,283	0	+1,283	No	+$21	01-04 03:21
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$818	819	0	+819	No	+$1	07-11 10:02
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$789	804	0	+804	No	+$14	07-22 07:40
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$780	781	0	+781	No	+$1	05-02 07:50
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$733	708	26	+682	No	+$1	08-07 07:37
Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$716	719	0	+719	No	+$3	02-11 07:00
will ethereum reach 3400 in february 2026	2	$708	355	355	+0	No	+$0	02-25 05:15
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 220 239	1	$658	668	0	+668	No	+$9	03-08 05:15
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$639	639	0	+639	No	+$1	06-04 08:56
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$634	649	0	+649	Yes	+$15	03-26 10:17
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$600	541	60	+481	No	+$1	04-21 10:39
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$583	587	0	+587	No	+$4	09-05 09:29
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$540	542	0	+542	No	+$2	02-03 02:44
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	1	$450	451	0	+451	No	+$1	03-26 10:17
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	3	$444	415	31	+384	No	+$1	10-18 14:10
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	1	$428	436	0	+436	Yes	+$8	03-06 03:48
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	1	$409	443	0	+443	Yes	+$34	01-12 04:19
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$409	431	0	+431	Yes	+$22	01-12 04:19
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	4	$409	243	243	+0	Yes	+$69	02-27 05:18
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$378	351	31	+320	Yes	+$4	01-27 02:44
no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$341	347	0	+347	Yes	+$6	01-12 04:19
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$324	164	164	+0	Yes	+$2	05-18 03:14
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$309	323	0	+323	Yes	+$14	06-14 09:26
will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$239	244	0	+244	Yes	+$5	02-27 05:18
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$231	261	0	+261	Yes	+$30	05-30 06:22
will gnx kendrick lamar win best rap album at the 68th annual grammy awards	1	$222	302	0	+302	Yes	+$80	02-01 11:20
Paradex FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$221	223	0	+223	No	+$2	03-06 03:49
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	1	$219	0	220	-220	Yes	$0	02-27 04:55
will alphabet be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	1	$219	221	0	+221	Yes	+$1	02-27 04:55
will addison rae win best new artist at the 68th annual grammy awards	1	$218	225	0	+225	No	+$7	02-01 11:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 09:32:56	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	59¢	$36	0xcde300…
10-18 14:10:36	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	36	41¢	$15	0x4305b9…
10-18 14:10:00	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x82f87a…
10-16 10:47:40	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	60	56¢	$34	0x77516c…
10-16 10:47:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0x364f60…
10-14 07:38:31	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xada5c6…
10-14 07:37:44	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$15	0x1f838d…
10-05 17:30:19	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	415	100¢	$414	0x21e555…
10-05 17:29:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	91	79¢	$72	0x658e08…
10-05 17:29:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	87	83¢	$72	0x4b027b…
10-05 17:28:55	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	70¢	$72	0x5478bf…
10-05 17:28:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	67¢	$72	0x72c498…
10-05 17:27:56	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	99	98¢	$97	0x0cc68d…
10-05 17:27:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October?	No	BUY	101	95¢	$96	0x1bdec2…
10-05 17:27:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x6c4da8…
10-05 17:26:44	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x172c74…
09-05 09:29:21	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	587	99¢	$583	0xb79171…
09-05 09:28:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	122	49¢	$60	0x72d677…
09-05 09:28:21	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	BUY	112	64¢	$72	0xf6ded9…
09-05 09:27:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?	No	BUY	103	93¢	$96	0xc6c2c5…
09-05 09:27:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	101	95¢	$96	0x07a6a0…
09-05 09:26:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	86¢	$96	0xeccfe7…
09-05 09:26:18	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xdf6baa…
09-05 09:26:01	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	26¢	$15	0xf62c9e…
08-07 07:39:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	81	13¢	$10	0x2be6a5…
08-07 07:38:21	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	68	22¢	$15	0xd223c2…
08-07 07:37:49	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x8b3181…
08-06 13:27:33	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	708	100¢	$707	0x956a58…
08-06 13:27:05	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	90¢	$60	0xb37c76…
08-06 13:26:44	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	62¢	$60	0x9c883b…
08-06 13:26:29	Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	69	87¢	$60	0xa1f704…
08-06 13:26:15	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0xee205e…
08-06 13:25:54	Will Steph Curry's next team be Golden State Warriors?	Yes	BUY	128	93¢	$119	0x45f159…
08-06 13:25:21	will bitcoin reach 75k in august 2026	No	BUY	126	94¢	$119	0xf7e89d…
08-06 13:24:33	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	137	87¢	$119	0x407d5e…
08-06 13:24:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	94¢	$119	0x53ec20…
08-06 13:23:44	Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?	No	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0xc04aea…
08-06 13:23:29	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0xd184f4…
08-06 13:21:53	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	No	SELL	92	99¢	$90	0x7b2190…
07-22 07:40:25	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	804	98¢	$789	0x713212…
07-22 07:39:37	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	115	74¢	$85	0x934441…
07-11 10:02:17	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	819	100¢	$818	0xd4a86d…
07-11 10:01:41	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	No	BUY	92	98¢	$90	0x713d51…
07-11 10:01:22	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	92	98¢	$90	0xa784cf…
07-11 10:01:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	129	93¢	$120	0x753462…
07-11 10:00:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	94¢	$120	0xb9bb4e…
07-11 10:00:32	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	121	100¢	$120	0x25a4ee…
07-11 10:00:10	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xd37331…
07-11 09:59:55	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x3e9a21…
07-11 09:59:41	ufc pad ben8 2026 07 11	Benoît Saint Denis	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x78c18c…
06-14 09:26:00	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	323	96¢	$309	0xc958d3…
06-04 08:56:55	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	639	100¢	$639	0xa441dd…
06-04 08:56:34	will wti reach 120 in june 2026 243	No	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0xf25a55…
06-04 08:56:04	will bitcoin reach 80k in june 2026	No	BUY	104	95¢	$99	0xc7ccd1…
06-04 08:55:45	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	144	69¢	$99	0x0efd69…
06-04 08:55:27	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	128	90¢	$115	0x05538a…
06-04 08:55:04	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	183	63¢	$115	0x61aa71…
06-04 08:54:45	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	134	99¢	$132	0x08c9b3…
06-04 08:54:30	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	81¢	$132	0xf64fda…
06-04 08:53:57	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	205	17¢	$35	0xe7263b…
05-30 06:22:19	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x49d7a8…
05-30 06:22:04	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	85	41¢	$35	0x6f4979…
05-18 03:18:29	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	147	96¢	$142	0x175a9f…
05-18 03:14:50	Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	Yes	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x05bb72…
05-18 03:14:24	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	164	100¢	$163	0xd318de…
05-02 07:50:20	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	781	100¢	$780	0xbe6361…
05-02 07:49:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0x70f075…
05-02 07:48:46	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	74¢	$33	0x9ed130…
05-02 07:48:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	79¢	$113	0xe809b7…
05-02 07:47:04	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	149	76¢	$113	0x76bec4…
05-02 07:45:38	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	145	89¢	$129	0x2f28b8…
05-02 07:42:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	153	95¢	$145	0x2033a4…
05-02 07:40:28	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	164	98¢	$161	0x305113…
05-02 07:37:26	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	135	26¢	$35	0x553f96…
05-02 07:35:24	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	30¢	$25	0x7169a0…
04-21 10:39:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	73¢	$60	0x2c4cee…
04-21 10:39:32	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xee3aa3…
04-19 04:42:50	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	159	44¢	$70	0x84bd3d…
04-19 04:41:42	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x8fada2…
04-14 04:34:13	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	41	69¢	$29	0x437dd4…
04-14 04:33:39	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	Yes	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0xb47bee…
04-14 04:33:11	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 liv1	No	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x6acc18…
04-14 04:31:37	nba por phx 2026 04 14	Suns	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x39048e…
04-14 04:29:59	nba mia cha 2026 04 14	Hornets	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x038555…
04-07 13:36:43	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	541	100¢	$540	0x4c9799…
04-07 13:36:19	ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xa0cdca…
04-07 13:36:01	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	Yes	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0x82a607…
04-07 13:35:39	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	Yes	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x5a4a54…
04-07 13:35:13	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	67¢	$29	0x9d9a43…
04-04 05:18:19	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	94¢	$90	0x2987c1…
04-04 05:17:45	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	185	97¢	$180	0x067d2c…
04-04 05:17:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	188	96¢	$180	0x97ed05…
04-04 05:17:03	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	126	95¢	$120	0xa25372…
04-02 04:49:35	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	191	61¢	$117	0x8e94c4…
04-02 03:58:45	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	94	16¢	$15	0xdd9856…
04-02 03:58:27	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0x34216a…
04-02 03:57:55	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	149	78¢	$116	0x7c4633…
03-26 10:17:27	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	452	100¢	$451	0x70a239…
03-26 10:17:07	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	451	100¢	$450	0x60316e…
03-26 04:49:27	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	134	96¢	$129	0x793bf0…