Unsung-Neologism — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21

Unrealized P&L

-$23

Hit rate

76.1%

Resolved

Trades

202

lifetime

Volume

$4.99K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$107

1 position

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-20 18:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

51% 100% +$1

Other

36% 33% $-23

Tech

11% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes		+214	$129	50¢	$107	$-23	06-09 17:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$547	331	331	+0	open	—	03-31 19:45
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	3	$225	126	126	+0	open	—	04-16 08:46
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	2	$206	108	108	+0	open	—	03-23 12:13
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$198	126	126	+0	open	—	03-28 15:15
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	3	$129	214	0	+214	open	—	06-09 17:50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$126	84	84	+0	open	—	04-19 12:21
us forces seize another oil tanker by march 31	2	$122	76	76	+0	open	—	03-29 12:38
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$121	69	69	+0	open	—	05-24 05:22
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$120	70	70	+0	open	—	04-13 07:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$114	65	65	+0	open	—	04-22 01:42
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$109	59	59	+0	open	—	05-28 17:11
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$107	59	59	+0	open	—	04-26 18:10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$106	62	62	+0	No	+$6	04-16 04:17
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	2	$106	60	60	+0	open	—	04-09 05:14
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$104	55	55	+0	open	—	04-29 16:35
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	2	$103	54	54	+0	open	—	04-10 20:59
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$103	54	54	+0	open	—	04-07 11:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$102	61	61	+0	open	—	06-09 17:46
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$101	52	52	+0	open	—	04-08 16:47
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	2	$101	56	56	+0	open	—	05-05 14:55
trump declassifies new ufo files by march 31	1	$100	111	0	+111	open	—	03-16 16:05
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$100	52	52	+0	open	—	04-09 00:13
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	2	$99	55	55	+0	open	—	05-02 16:50
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	2	$78	91	0	+91	open	—	04-25 12:33
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	1	$70	0	70	-70	open	—	06-09 17:42
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	2	$69	44	44	+0	open	—	04-09 04:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	1	$64	68	0	+68	open	—	04-22 01:42
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	1	$55	0	63	-63	open	—	06-20 18:22
will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	2	$51	27	27	+0	open	—	04-16 04:10
will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	1	$50	25,000	0	+25,000	open	—	03-24 00:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-20 18:22:05	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	63	87¢	$55	0xee7bc7…
06-16 03:33:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	92¢	$14	0x64f328…
06-09 17:51:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	Yes	SELL	31	4¢	$1	0x01b3e5…
06-09 17:50:36	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	63¢	$50	0x063981…
06-09 17:46:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	61	89¢	$54	0xd0aa6e…
06-09 17:44:12	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	61¢	$69	0x815012…
06-09 17:42:55	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x364923…
06-02 02:44:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	61	79¢	$48	0xa434ed…
05-28 17:14:45	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x3e7da5…
05-28 17:13:21	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x5a1185…
05-28 17:11:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0xe35f84…
05-24 05:22:57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x32f947…
05-21 02:27:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x17d1cc…
05-18 23:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0xbe02f7…
05-18 23:21:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xbea88e…
05-18 14:18:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x086112…
05-18 14:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x7973d6…
05-18 14:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xd02fcd…
05-18 14:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x1e9c11…
05-07 06:01:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0x131ce6…
05-07 05:58:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x221c38…
05-06 02:44:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xa4cfbc…
05-06 02:44:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xf85fdd…
05-06 02:41:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xd02eeb…
05-06 02:41:02	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x188a16…
05-05 14:55:38	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	56	91¢	$51	0xfc6883…
05-02 16:50:20	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0xdfbb46…
05-02 16:49:06	Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xcc401f…
05-02 16:46:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x9c27d4…
05-02 16:45:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x9e8b3f…
05-02 16:44:24	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x7a0a5f…
05-02 16:44:02	Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xbdf7ae…
05-01 02:29:10	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xe79f0d…
04-30 02:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x67eff5…
04-30 02:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xae495e…
04-30 02:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x27020e…
04-30 02:37:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xe346f2…
04-30 02:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf553a0…
04-30 02:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xe05539…
04-30 02:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x85dd3b…
04-30 02:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x7c68c0…
04-30 02:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xc57d10…
04-30 02:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x8c51d5…
04-30 02:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x43fa2b…
04-30 02:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x1c7dcb…
04-30 02:31:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x60fd2a…
04-30 02:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x02c6fd…
04-29 16:35:36	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0x45b45e…
04-26 18:14:22	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x8a9ab9…
04-26 18:10:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	59	98¢	$57	0xe7d036…
04-25 12:33:28	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	78	86¢	$68	0x94ae0a…
04-25 04:24:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x6b8c47…
04-25 04:20:52	Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	176	13¢	$23	0x670286…
04-25 02:50:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x52fb20…
04-22 16:01:36	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x79df22…
04-22 16:01:18	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?	Yes	BUY	119	17¢	$20	0x9fdcf3…
04-22 16:00:58	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0x843e23…
04-22 15:54:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	58	86¢	$50	0xed9e13…
04-22 01:42:50	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	68	95¢	$64	0x6a8a7c…
04-22 01:42:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	65	99¢	$64	0xb0c9bf…
04-20 23:50:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	34	83¢	$28	0xffabb6…
04-19 12:24:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x7887e1…
04-19 12:21:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	91¢	$76	0x53d7ab…
04-17 14:06:56	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	82¢	$45	0x58a243…
04-16 16:45:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	BUY	133	38¢	$50	0x186cc9…
04-16 16:40:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	60¢	$50	0x313d1b…
04-16 08:46:10	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	SELL	126	99¢	$125	0x5f5e4b…
04-16 04:32:18	Will Claude 4.7 not be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x9b2a3e…
04-16 04:32:08	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	245	0¢	$1	0x4911e2…
04-16 04:32:02	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	381	0¢	$1	0x2da3ac…
04-16 04:31:52	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	629	0¢	$1	0x703bd7…
04-16 04:31:48	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	1¢	$1	0xa96d70…
04-16 04:30:54	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	163	1¢	$1	0xae1cc4…
04-16 04:30:48	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xb966f4…
04-16 04:30:40	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	1¢	$1	0x77d229…
04-16 04:30:32	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	1¢	$1	0xb6757c…
04-16 04:30:26	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	1¢	$1	0x1ee86d…
04-16 04:30:12	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	1¢	$1	0x32904d…
04-16 04:30:06	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x022d21…
04-16 04:29:58	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	3¢	$1	0x6f1543…
04-16 04:29:50	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x07c4a8…
04-16 04:28:46	Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	No	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x9b1105…
04-16 04:17:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	SELL	62	91¢	$56	0x0d4353…
04-16 04:10:10	will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xf81a63…
04-15 01:33:18	Will King Charles say "Ukraine" during the joint meeting of Congress?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x985488…
04-15 01:32:24	Will King Charles say "War" during the joint meeting of Congress?	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xe8d7c9…
04-15 01:31:10	Will King Charles say "Anniversary" during the joint meeting of Congress?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x72b1d8…
04-15 01:28:10	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0xf9383c…
04-13 17:30:53	will trump say iran during dinner with dutch royals	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xd0034f…
04-13 17:30:23	will trump say ballroom during dinner with dutch royals	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x86b678…
04-13 13:00:37	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xb25b2f…
04-13 07:22:41	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0xcb2182…
04-13 02:06:49	will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	No	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0x82933e…
04-13 02:01:21	will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xdfdf10…
04-13 02:00:15	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xe39979…
04-12 11:13:21	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x3586db…
04-12 11:07:09	Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0x2c4060…
04-11 16:03:35	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xf5a5b8…
04-11 09:55:21	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x66bf76…
04-11 09:51:27	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0xce08b7…