Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$98.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$59.7K

Hit rate

49.6%

Resolved

Trades

2,137

lifetime

Volume

$1.06M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$495

Open exposure

$526.6K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 09-27 15:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Politics

85% 26% -$110,771

Other

15% 18% +$11,972

Sports

0% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+442,222	$381,711	98¢	$433.6K	+$51,888	09-14 20:38
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	+88,888	$76,444	97¢	$86.5K	+$10,089	06-28 06:27
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	+2,491	$2,274	95¢	$2.4K	+$86	07-19 08:26
putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	+1,632	$1,305	90¢	$1.5K	+$171	07-08 15:41
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+33,207	$3,715	4¢	$1.3K	-$2,370	08-02 17:05
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+1,333	$1,226	96¢	$1.3K	+$47	09-27 15:08
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+2,332	$257	3¢	$63	-$194	08-01 12:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	37	$406.3K	455,554	13,332	+442,222	open	—	09-14 20:38
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	95	$129.2K	159,640	0	+159,640	Yes	-$129,242	02-28 03:11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	314	$110.9K	136,678	45,663	+91,015	No	+$28,823	04-12 01:56
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	2	$76.4K	88,888	0	+88,888	open	—	06-28 06:27
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	7	$65.1K	92,570	0	+92,570	No	+$27,438	01-14 19:30
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	147	$38.8K	158,883	0	+158,883	No	+$57,004	01-27 18:44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	287	$29.4K	31,543	44,427	-12,884	Yes	-$9,379	02-28 17:15
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	41	$21.4K	28,599	0	+28,599	Yes	-$21,352	02-28 03:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	91	$20.9K	25,498	23,255	+2,243	No	+$7,618	04-07 23:32
Fed rate hike in 2026?	74	$20.2K	142,150	0	+142,150	Yes	-$20,235	09-16 15:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	77	$19.3K	154,977	0	+154,977	Yes	-$19,262	03-01 02:12
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	70	$16.9K	43,395	0	+43,395	Yes	-$16,892	04-15 20:17
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	96	$14.7K	74,826	0	+74,826	No	+$6,751	01-15 22:09
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	61	$12.0K	35,451	0	+35,451	No	+$13,426	01-15 15:19
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	50	$9.7K	54,648	0	+54,648	No	+$18,335	01-16 16:49
will us or israel strike iran on march 9 2026	51	$6.9K	57,547	0	+57,547	Yes	-$6,906	03-03 21:49
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	6	$5.2K	22,453	0	+22,453	Yes	-$5,155	04-09 15:48
will us or israel strike iran on march 6 2026	42	$4.8K	77,777	0	+77,777	Yes	-$4,778	03-02 20:17
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	12	$4.2K	12,510	0	+12,510	Yes	+$2,083	02-01 19:11
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	93	$4.1K	462,613	0	+462,613	Yes	-$4,110	03-01 02:11
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	57	$3.8K	74,056	0	+74,056	Yes	-$3,757	03-03 08:35
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	28	$3.7K	33,207	0	+33,207	open	—	08-02 17:05
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	6	$3.0K	8,544	0	+8,544	No	+$364	01-14 23:03
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	5	$2.9K	22,458	0	+22,458	Yes	-$2,917	04-09 22:17
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	16	$2.7K	33,363	0	+33,363	Yes	-$2,669	03-03 21:52
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	20	$2.7K	888,888	0	+888,888	No	-$2,667	01-28 17:44
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	28	$2.3K	19,454	0	+19,454	No	-$2,335	03-01 16:15
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	1	$2.3K	2,491	0	+2,491	open	—	07-19 08:26
will us or israel strike iran on march 7 2026	28	$2.0K	33,333	0	+33,333	Yes	-$2,000	03-03 15:14
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	39	$1.9K	51,049	0	+51,049	Yes	-$1,930	04-07 23:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-27 15:08:14	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	515	92¢	$474	0x4ddabc…
09-26 19:55:36	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	116	92¢	$107	0x5642ce…
09-25 21:27:36	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x1c2205…
09-25 17:53:09	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	125	92¢	$115	0xf5e29c…
09-25 17:49:08	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	17	92¢	$16	0xbb04a3…
09-25 16:48:15	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0xa54d2d…
09-25 15:38:53	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	539	92¢	$496	0xdd4613…
09-16 15:04:47	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	11,111	6¢	$611	0x35569a…
09-16 14:52:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0xc76dac…
09-16 14:52:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0xa1fa09…
09-16 14:52:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x14833c…
09-16 14:51:08	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x460861…
09-16 14:35:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0xca3e00…
09-16 14:35:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x8b53b0…
09-16 14:35:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	47	5¢	$2	0x17f9bd…
09-16 14:34:39	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x3ebcb0…
09-16 14:34:24	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	105	5¢	$5	0xa881b1…
09-16 14:29:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x5352f9…
09-16 14:25:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xb26740…
09-16 14:18:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	44	5¢	$2	0x755d68…
09-16 14:16:51	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	870	5¢	$44	0x3161b5…
09-16 14:14:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	93	5¢	$5	0x3a2969…
09-16 13:47:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	69	5¢	$3	0x2c9f3a…
09-16 13:38:30	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	953	5¢	$48	0x441338…
09-16 13:33:57	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	98	5¢	$5	0x190185…
09-16 13:29:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1,084	5¢	$54	0x219c93…
09-16 12:51:21	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0xd53618…
09-16 12:37:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x369f8d…
09-14 21:12:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	32,715	8¢	$2,617	0x3af388…
09-14 21:10:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	94	8¢	$8	0xe6861e…
09-14 21:10:52	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	98	8¢	$8	0x47b988…
09-14 20:48:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	8¢	$160	0xacd9f6…
09-14 20:40:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	76	8¢	$6	0x95f5c1…
09-14 20:39:57	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	9,460	8¢	$757	0x63fd6d…
09-14 20:38:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4,444	93¢	$4,133	0xeb40e4…
09-14 14:04:45	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	19,992	11¢	$2,199	0x120d16…
09-14 13:50:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	213	11¢	$23	0x7f1a6e…
09-14 12:27:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	4	11¢	$0	0xf5e734…
09-14 12:23:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xad36e5…
09-14 11:41:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0x491c6c…
09-14 10:38:28	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	67	11¢	$7	0xb1b503…
09-14 09:23:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	59	11¢	$6	0x3b4686…
09-14 09:21:54	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1,379	11¢	$152	0xc8fe2f…
09-14 09:17:01	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	300	11¢	$33	0x5051d2…
09-14 09:06:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x880015…
09-14 09:04:55	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,333	93¢	$3,100	0xd59105…
09-14 04:59:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	4,196	13¢	$546	0x86bb2a…
09-14 04:36:30	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0x537876…
09-14 02:56:21	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x16fb26…
09-14 02:44:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x1c1ae6…
09-14 01:41:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x228230…
09-13 21:03:34	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	33	13¢	$4	0x1e23bc…
09-13 18:08:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1,607	13¢	$209	0x0bdf16…
09-13 17:36:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0xd12474…
09-13 17:35:54	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0xd43f81…
09-13 17:35:54	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1,533	13¢	$199	0x5f3a86…
09-13 06:57:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	230	13¢	$30	0x9e1230…
09-13 05:31:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	280	13¢	$36	0x69bf21…
09-13 05:04:34	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0x29e4de…
09-13 04:55:18	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	57	13¢	$7	0xa80fea…
09-13 04:44:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	120	13¢	$16	0x3aeab6…
09-13 03:35:39	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x4a988b…
09-13 02:38:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x63f85b…
09-13 02:27:51	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	121	13¢	$16	0xf7aca2…
09-13 01:17:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	61	13¢	$8	0x10ca49…
09-13 00:23:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x1340d1…
09-12 22:31:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x8de508…
09-12 19:08:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0x7d6177…
09-12 19:08:03	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xd1d5c4…
09-12 19:08:03	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	3,446	13¢	$448	0x98298b…
09-12 19:08:03	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	90	13¢	$12	0x8c48c4…
09-12 19:08:03	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	3	13¢	$0	0x3a3967…
08-02 17:05:38	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	6,675	11¢	$761	0xd74344…
08-02 15:21:20	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	901	11¢	$103	0xed1191…
08-02 15:20:09	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	73	11¢	$8	0xc4f3a3…
08-02 15:17:15	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	11¢	$114	0x444d37…
08-02 15:14:38	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1,100	11¢	$125	0x40e0d2…
08-02 15:10:44	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	700	11¢	$80	0xf5a470…
08-02 00:59:32	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xdb586a…
08-02 00:55:51	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x223a45…
08-02 00:36:38	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xe96350…
08-02 00:29:44	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	28	11¢	$3	0x71470b…
08-02 00:11:42	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0x62db32…
08-01 22:28:27	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0x81d228…
08-01 21:49:18	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x1068e0…
08-01 19:59:50	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	500	11¢	$57	0xc23a61…
08-01 19:59:42	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	636	11¢	$73	0x0f37a3…
08-01 19:51:26	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0xf0e3ae…
08-01 19:15:53	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x01a179…
08-01 18:55:17	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x90248b…
08-01 18:49:18	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x2999c5…
08-01 18:17:24	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	169	11¢	$19	0x7054d9…
08-01 17:39:27	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	169	11¢	$19	0x94e09c…
08-01 17:27:12	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xc94069…
08-01 12:21:18	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x1e07a9…
08-01 12:21:14	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	101	11¢	$11	0x403c9b…
08-01 12:21:14	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x15be87…
08-01 10:54:23	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xf3db2b…
08-01 10:51:29	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x19f8bc…
08-01 10:47:17	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x6c1cd6…