Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e814…309fbd
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Realized P&L
-$513
Unrealized P&L
+$303
Hit rate
16.8%
Resolved
26
Trades
31,041
lifetime
Volume
$81.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$538
27 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 06-09 17:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
50% 43% $-228
Other
46% 11% $-287
Sports
2% 100% +$2
Tech
1% — —
Crypto
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1884 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes -6,950 $-252 1¢ $-66 +$186 06-07 15:48
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes +2,000 $30 3¢ $59 +$29 05-31 20:20
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes +450 $49 8¢ $38 $-11 06-02 19:49
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No +200 $24 18¢ $37 +$13 05-28 11:09
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes +322 $-4 11¢ $34 +$39 06-08 11:36
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes +250 $36 14¢ $34 $-3 06-05 21:54
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? No +2,673 $17 1¢ $33 +$16 06-09 11:23
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes +200 $22 15¢ $29 +$7 06-02 12:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +150 $33 18¢ $28 $-5 06-06 02:47
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes +100 $20 20¢ $20 +$0 06-01 00:48
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes +100 $20 20¢ $20 $-0 06-03 15:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +200 $42 10¢ $19 $-23 06-01 13:54
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes +1,054 $22 2¢ $18 $-3 06-01 12:40
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? No +1,075 $20 2¢ $16 $-3 06-09 15:19
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes +630 $13 2¢ $16 +$3 06-07 02:46
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes +600 $14 2¢ $14 $-0 06-09 14:35
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +100 $-28 11¢ $11 +$38 06-01 11:03
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $10 10¢ $10 +$0 05-29 05:09
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? No +1,530 $-6 1¢ $9 +$15 06-09 17:31
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes +60 $7 13¢ $8 +$1 06-08 09:58
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Yes +4,839 $13 0¢ $5 $-8 05-16 23:13
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +100 $7 4¢ $4 $-3 06-01 09:17
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Yes +58 $3 6¢ $4 +$1 06-09 17:53
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes -78 $-21 5¢ $-4 +$17 06-06 08:58
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? No +1,125 $3 0¢ $3 $-1 06-07 06:09
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes +125 $1 1¢ $1 $-0 06-07 18:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No +0 $0 63¢ $0 +$0 05-29 16:26