Realized P&L
-$513
Unrealized P&L
+$19
Hit rate
16.8%
Resolved
26
Trades
36,617
lifetime
Volume
$112.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$438
13 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 07-20 18:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
55% 43% $-228
Other
41% 11% $-287
Tech
3%
Sports
1% 100% +$2
Crypto
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 692 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No -390 $-60 48¢ $-185 $-125 07-15 14:18
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes +362 $46 15¢ $53 +$6 07-07 09:11
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +227 $35 18¢ $40 +$5 07-12 16:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +2,404 $40 $35 $-5 07-16 06:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +150 $18 23¢ $34 +$16 06-15 15:00
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes +450 $4 $32 +$27 07-06 01:59
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +100 $20 18¢ $18 $-2 07-17 11:02
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes +1,100 $-77 $16 +$93 07-03 08:59
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $10 $8 $-2 05-29 05:09
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Yes +1,558 $16 $7 $-9 06-27 14:37
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Yes +4,839 $13 $5 $-8 05-16 23:13
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes +84 $1 $3 +$2 06-18 23:52
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes +72 $-18 $2 +$20 07-08 21:56