Natural-Intensity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$219

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.5%

Resolved

Trades

5,527

lifetime

Volume

$549.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$99

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 15:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

69% 0% $-193

Other

27% 33% $-26

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 328 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	299	$88.9K	49,715	43,527	+6,188	open	—	03-17 10:55
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	67	$36.8K	19,475	19,225	+250	open	—	02-03 16:33
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	407	$21.6K	19,003	14,897	+4,106	open	—	02-13 13:48
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	74	$21.2K	15,743	8,392	+7,350	open	—	02-07 09:40
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	199	$17.5K	13,437	13,117	+320	open	—	02-04 16:27
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	23	$17.4K	8,750	8,750	+0	open	—	04-30 22:01
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	23	$16.8K	10,000	7,500	+2,500	open	—	04-30 07:29
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	237	$14.7K	13,229	10,786	+2,444	open	—	03-22 19:33
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	49	$9.5K	16,562	16,062	+500	open	—	02-18 14:56
netanyahu out by march 31 854	35	$9.3K	4,656	4,750	-94	open	—	03-31 10:53
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	115	$8.3K	18,700	18,278	+421	open	—	06-17 22:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	25	$7.9K	4,086	4,086	+0	open	—	04-10 08:31
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	317	$7.7K	3,000	5,100	-2,100	open	—	08-09 09:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	25	$7.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	04-26 12:46
will rachida dati win the paris mayor election	259	$7.6K	9,985	8,456	+1,529	open	—	03-22 18:00
will andr ventura win the second round by 05 218	4	$6.8K	3,452	3,452	+0	open	—	01-31 07:22
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	33	$6.6K	5,000	1,998	+3,002	open	—	08-09 09:48
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	43	$6.6K	5,250	1,500	+3,750	open	—	02-22 10:21
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	12	$5.8K	2,375	3,625	-1,250	open	—	01-20 22:06
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	15	$5.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$56	03-09 07:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	35	$5.6K	5,750	5,750	+0	open	—	02-18 15:20
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	80	$5.5K	22,996	22,996	+0	open	—	02-13 13:32
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$5.4K	5,350	350	+5,000	open	—	06-02 11:43
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	32	$5.1K	5,750	1,250	+4,500	open	—	04-06 20:57
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	85	$5.1K	4,615	4,724	-109	open	—	02-08 08:48
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	14	$4.5K	2,375	2,375	+0	open	—	03-30 12:22
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	173	$4.5K	3,621	2,799	+822	open	—	03-22 09:37
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	80	$4.2K	3,160	3,150	+10	open	—	04-12 20:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	64	$4.1K	6,235	5,418	+817	open	—	05-26 11:59
will edouard philippe be the next mayor of le havre	36	$3.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-18 21:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 15:39:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	181	19¢	$34	0x09ef1e…
08-11 15:38:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0x3b1aad…
08-11 15:38:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	193	19¢	$37	0x8dabad…
08-11 15:26:42	Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xc434ce…
08-10 22:42:55	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	173	74¢	$128	0xe748ab…
08-10 20:33:46	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xfb6074…
08-10 20:04:49	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x3c919e…
08-10 20:04:40	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	75	74¢	$56	0x41a2d3…
08-10 16:07:18	Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	No	BUY	1,903	99¢	$1,886	0x0a3e94…
08-10 15:15:43	Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x93352a…
08-10 10:24:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	302	62¢	$187	0x57a6f5…
08-10 10:23:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	BUY	26	16¢	$4	0x493793…
08-10 09:56:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	BUY	27	16¢	$4	0x2b203e…
08-10 08:48:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	48	60¢	$29	0xbd6e03…
08-10 07:23:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xb154ef…
08-10 07:07:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	196	18¢	$34	0xb4d8d7…
08-10 01:45:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0x001062…
08-10 00:07:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	395	18¢	$69	0xd9c3b7…
08-09 17:44:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	246	22¢	$54	0xc29687…
08-09 17:31:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	254	22¢	$56	0xc8678d…
08-09 16:03:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	500	21¢	$105	0x2e2040…
08-09 15:36:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	30	18¢	$5	0x876574…
08-09 15:36:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	55	18¢	$10	0x03e978…
08-09 15:21:19	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	151	84¢	$127	0xa9fba8…
08-09 11:47:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	500	19¢	$94	0xfc5f50…
08-09 11:39:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	500	15¢	$74	0x869ad4…
08-09 11:38:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	332	14¢	$47	0xe53b0b…
08-09 11:29:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	168	14¢	$24	0xb025d2…
08-09 09:56:00	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	3,500	96¢	$3,374	0xbc695e…
08-09 09:48:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xf2dd2c…
08-09 09:37:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x6a7801…
08-09 09:31:45	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xdff95b…
08-09 09:30:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x05d1e1…
08-09 09:24:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xade527…
08-09 09:16:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	120	96¢	$115	0x587f25…
08-09 09:15:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x3410e6…
08-09 09:12:55	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	99¢	$1,482	0xe5995e…
08-09 09:07:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x32345d…
08-09 09:05:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0xff2460…
08-09 08:57:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0b3283…
08-09 08:57:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd67e3c…
08-09 08:54:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa7bf6c…
08-09 08:54:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0xe4cba0…
08-09 08:53:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0x1924bd…
08-09 08:31:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9d2c9e…
08-09 08:25:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4fa6d5…
08-09 08:24:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6f1858…
08-09 08:11:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd77653…
08-09 08:11:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	110	96¢	$106	0xb5e212…
08-09 08:10:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x567c97…
08-09 08:10:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x4303d0…
08-09 08:10:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x372b84…
08-09 08:10:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x0f7a1d…
08-09 08:09:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7c4275…
08-09 08:06:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x737123…
08-09 07:49:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x49057b…
08-09 07:39:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x687bde…
08-09 07:28:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	293	96¢	$281	0xc3a7ce…
08-08 22:06:46	Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xcca2ec…
08-08 18:19:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	BUY	2,500	6¢	$162	0xd65d48…
08-07 17:35:22	Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	24	89¢	$21	0xdc31c1…
08-07 17:34:46	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	59	89¢	$53	0xec2ec7…
08-07 16:59:13	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	338	56¢	$189	0xedba49…
08-07 15:35:25	Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xaab674…
08-07 15:17:43	Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	182	89¢	$162	0xf3e9bb…
08-07 14:03:55	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	199	84¢	$167	0x1ecca6…
08-07 12:14:48	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0x21bdb6…
08-07 09:45:24	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	342	89¢	$304	0x49cde6…
08-07 00:01:51	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	27	79¢	$22	0xc19266…
08-07 00:01:45	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x7c76c9…
08-07 00:01:42	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x4c6e49…
08-06 22:55:29	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	83	80¢	$66	0xe8282f…
08-06 21:55:47	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	157	79¢	$124	0xd4fe8c…
08-06 21:33:02	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x800c5e…
08-06 21:32:35	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x0b6846…
08-06 21:17:39	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	42	80¢	$33	0x234d1f…
08-06 20:45:35	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	15	80¢	$12	0x63c366…
08-06 20:43:14	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	9	80¢	$7	0x9fa5fa…
08-06 20:42:08	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x9e17f5…
08-06 20:41:05	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xa3d779…
08-06 20:40:00	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xab83ae…
08-06 18:56:38	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	250	75¢	$188	0xd54eb3…
08-06 17:52:20	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	250	80¢	$200	0x444c0b…
08-06 12:56:00	Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	617	56¢	$348	0x73996f…
08-06 11:24:38	Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	No	SELL	252	99¢	$250	0x64c67f…
08-05 19:01:35	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	238	59¢	$140	0x9f27ce…
08-05 18:49:15	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	12	59¢	$7	0xe64b40…
08-05 11:36:54	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	125	66¢	$82	0xe8339c…
08-04 19:49:23	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	206	69¢	$142	0xb552c0…
08-04 18:54:35	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	144	69¢	$99	0x75e3e1…
08-04 18:43:32	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	25	69¢	$17	0x2f6d28…
08-04 16:00:02	Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	140	65¢	$91	0x81244d…
08-04 13:47:00	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	125	70¢	$88	0x0eff0b…
08-03 00:09:03	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	125	65¢	$81	0xb40c4a…
08-02 15:41:30	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	125	56¢	$70	0xcdfce8…
08-01 14:56:53	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	250	66¢	$165	0x5ab5ef…
08-01 14:03:33	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	250	62¢	$155	0x98dbc7…
08-01 14:02:56	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	105	66¢	$69	0x7514e7…
08-01 13:48:06	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x6fb588…
08-01 13:32:03	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	250	70¢	$175	0x7f8e3d…