Clean-Simplicity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.52K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.89K

Hit rate

93.2%

Resolved

128

Trades

2,236

lifetime

Volume

$1.30M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$581

Open exposure

$38.4K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-21 00:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Politics

49% 85% +$692

Other

34% 83% +$929

Sports

11% 95% +$773

Tech

7% 100% +$131

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+32,219	$24,806	84¢	$27.1K	+$2,257	10-08 15:06
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+11,000	$10,200	98¢	$10.8K	+$580	10-12 16:02
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+460	$428	92¢	$426	-$2	10-06 06:03
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+94	$37	98¢	$92	+$56	10-21 00:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	412	$291.8K	161,756	133,162	+28,595	No	+$841	04-26 05:35
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	119	$92.3K	47,340	47,246	+94	open	—	10-21 00:49
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	321	$86.7K	51,575	35,971	+15,604	No	+$108	09-25 17:41
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	326	$86.7K	59,925	27,254	+32,671	Yes	+$129	04-29 18:01
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?	199	$57.4K	29,182	29,182	+0	No	-$759	05-11 09:51
Trump out as President by May 31?	14	$52.6K	27,908	25,000	+2,908	No	+$28	05-28 23:25
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	163	$40.1K	20,219	20,219	+0	No	+$27	06-13 12:09
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	46	$29.5K	29,600	0	+29,600	Yes	+$59	05-18 19:34
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	17	$29.4K	29,532	0	+29,532	No	+$123	05-16 18:10
nba min phi 2026 04 03	10	$28.3K	28,750	0	+28,750	76ers	+$406	04-04 01:17
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	29	$27.1K	18,990	8,336	+10,654	No	+$72	09-17 19:20
Raptors vs. Cavaliers	7	$26.1K	26,214	0	+26,214	Cavaliers	+$131	05-04 02:13
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	34	$24.8K	32,219	0	+32,219	open	—	10-08 15:06
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	3	$24.7K	24,690	0	+24,690	No	+$25	05-01 00:07
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	31	$23.5K	23,785	0	+23,785	No	+$319	05-12 08:41
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	3	$18.5K	9,406	9,406	+0	Yes	-$47	02-03 10:39
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	20	$16.1K	16,311	0	+16,311	No	+$246	03-07 02:02
will china win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	13	$15.7K	7,887	7,887	+0	No	+$71	02-11 01:16
Spread: Haiti (-1.5)	3	$14.8K	14,800	0	+14,800	Trinidad and Tobago	+$15	09-25 02:01
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	32	$11.7K	12,032	0	+12,032	No	+$379	03-15 08:26
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 spread home 3pt5	118	$10.9K	11,000	0	+11,000	England	+$66	07-11 15:47
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 spread home 4pt5	2	$10.9K	10,880	0	+10,880	Egypt	+$22	07-07 16:38
will trump meet with xi jinping in february 2026	6	$10.9K	10,928	0	+10,928	No	+$77	02-22 04:30
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 spread away 2pt5	1	$10.7K	10,662	0	+10,662	Argentina	+$11	07-12 01:53
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	24	$10.2K	11,000	0	+11,000	open	—	10-12 16:02
nba min mia 2026 01 03	2	$10.0K	10,020	0	+10,020	Timberwolves	+$10	01-04 00:20
nba sac phx 2026 01 02	7	$10.0K	10,010	0	+10,010	Suns	+$10	01-03 04:15
nba hou bkn 2026 01 01	1	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	Rockets	+$18	01-02 00:55
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 total 8pt5	2	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	Under	+$30	07-07 01:13
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 spread home 5pt5	2	$9.9K	10,000	0	+10,000	Belgium	+$50	07-10 15:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 00:49:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x36b797…
10-16 23:53:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0x06cc21…
10-16 23:44:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	394	98¢	$386	0xc0e43d…
10-16 23:37:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xeaf5aa…
10-16 23:35:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	404	98¢	$396	0x1ab922…
10-16 23:35:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	185	98¢	$181	0x20ef62…
10-16 23:13:32	Mirassol FC vs. SC Internacional: Mirassol FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xcd3ce4…
10-12 16:02:38	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	581	92¢	$535	0x1c34e0…
10-12 16:02:35	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	419	92¢	$385	0x8af8bd…
10-11 06:17:54	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,738	93¢	$5,337	0x3fecf9…
10-11 05:28:03	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0xfe1834…
10-11 04:34:39	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0xa2a3c2…
10-11 04:33:42	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	62	93¢	$57	0x65424c…
10-11 04:33:39	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	93¢	$29	0x3e29c7…
10-11 04:33:29	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0xe46e0f…
10-11 04:33:26	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x44dbcc…
10-11 04:33:18	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x8447bb…
10-11 04:33:17	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0xae3e0f…
10-11 04:33:17	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0x52c95b…
10-11 04:33:17	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0x393154…
10-11 04:33:17	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	93¢	$24	0x1c3c38…
10-11 04:33:17	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x11c026…
10-11 04:33:15	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,081	93¢	$2,865	0xbf2bcc…
10-10 22:58:27	Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)	Clube do Remo	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x5a89a4…
10-10 22:57:24	Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)	Clube do Remo	BUY	1,111	100¢	$1,110	0x60e0bf…
10-10 22:56:01	Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)	Clube do Remo	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x32bf79…
10-10 22:53:49	Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)	Clube do Remo	BUY	181	100¢	$181	0xb21a3c…
10-09 15:02:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8,504	98¢	$8,308	0x12bdfa…
10-09 15:02:03	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	42	98¢	$41	0x5c6600…
10-09 14:25:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x3cbb0f…
10-09 13:44:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xe3ab50…
10-09 13:22:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xcc1803…
10-09 13:09:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x2b71a2…
10-09 13:09:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x3c3f67…
10-09 13:09:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xd13f1d…
10-09 13:08:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x7ee895…
10-09 13:08:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xea8387…
10-09 13:08:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xed2e11…
10-09 13:06:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x3ea07e…
10-09 13:06:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xdfbf96…
10-09 13:05:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x99b598…
10-09 13:05:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x4c707d…
10-09 13:05:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x7dc1c5…
10-09 13:05:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x11749a…
10-09 13:05:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xcfdc80…
10-09 13:05:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xebc4f7…
10-09 13:04:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xe5a55b…
10-09 12:47:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x77ec67…
10-09 12:47:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xed8762…
10-09 12:47:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0x227fc0…
10-09 12:45:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	81	98¢	$79	0x3f6c6e…
10-09 12:43:45	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	86	98¢	$84	0x8a5af1…
10-09 12:42:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x095b8d…
10-09 12:42:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x8a32b7…
10-09 12:40:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xe06c56…
10-09 12:40:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0xee10dc…
10-09 12:40:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0xb0ab93…
10-09 12:39:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0xbdc0fb…
10-09 12:39:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0xd1d40e…
10-09 12:39:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x89de6d…
10-09 12:39:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	89	98¢	$87	0xe9e8c9…
10-09 12:38:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0x682304…
10-09 12:38:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0xd33c75…
10-09 12:37:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0x712dde…
10-09 12:37:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0x1738c7…
10-09 12:37:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0x17b7b7…
10-09 12:37:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0x77adc2…
10-09 12:37:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0x0ae643…
10-09 12:37:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0xda80a2…
10-09 12:36:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	93	98¢	$91	0x25a41d…
10-08 15:06:45	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0x2b5910…
10-08 15:06:03	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,850	79¢	$8,572	0x47bfb5…
10-08 15:02:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	3,146	98¢	$3,073	0x89e2c2…
10-08 15:02:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0xeb400d…
10-08 14:56:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0xd1d70b…
10-08 14:45:36	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	323	78¢	$252	0x6f0d42…
10-08 14:41:59	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5,802	98¢	$5,669	0x7942fc…
10-08 14:37:38	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7,630	78¢	$5,951	0x7b2ca9…
10-08 14:21:12	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,730	78¢	$2,129	0x53c353…
10-08 06:49:19	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	152	91¢	$139	0x4d5956…
10-08 06:46:15	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xa02403…
10-08 05:03:17	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x93ad66…
10-08 00:06:32	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xbefc3a…
10-08 00:06:32	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x230319…
10-08 00:06:31	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	469	91¢	$427	0x951068…
10-08 00:06:31	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$4	0x7644a5…
10-07 23:53:07	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	350	91¢	$318	0x2f84d2…
10-07 03:11:35	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xc5620c…
10-07 02:41:59	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xe142e6…
10-07 02:41:59	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0xab1dc4…
10-07 02:39:35	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x6d2ac6…
10-06 23:54:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0x15e91e…
10-06 23:50:56	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	81	98¢	$79	0x887b0e…
10-06 22:21:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0xdf5751…
10-06 22:03:44	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x38e4d2…
10-06 21:17:45	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x620912…
10-06 20:35:45	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	825	98¢	$806	0xe7f29b…
10-06 20:24:26	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	843	98¢	$824	0xe31071…
10-06 20:23:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	861	98¢	$842	0x8106ae…
10-06 20:16:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	881	98¢	$860	0x84e77a…