New-Structure 0xcf4703…e02c4b
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Realized P&L
+$3
Unrealized P&L
-$18
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved
1
Trades
905
lifetime
Volume
$9.31K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$806
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-08
last 07-21 23:18
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 1 day
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Other
47% — —
Politics
40% 100% +$3
Crypto
11% — —
Tech
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? No -55 $-54 98¢ $-54 $-0 07-20 04:23
Will Wells Fargo fail by end of 2026? No +55 $54 98¢ $54 $-0 07-09 10:20
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +54 $51 96¢ $52 +$1 07-20 18:44
Will HSBC fail by end of 2026? No +45 $44 98¢ $44 $-0 07-07 01:58
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No -43 $-40 94¢ $-41 $-0 07-18 04:40
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No -40 $-39 98¢ $-39 $-0 06-12 06:57
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +40 $39 96¢ $39 $-0 07-20 15:44
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No +40 $36 90¢ $36 +$0 07-20 06:41
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? No -36 $-34 96¢ $-34 +$0 07-15 15:13
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No +32 $31 96¢ $31 $-0 07-06 03:46
Will Alberta join the US? No +30 $29 97¢ $29 $-0 07-08 23:04
Will Santander fail by end of 2026? No +30 $29 97¢ $29 $-0 07-15 19:04
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -27 $-24 97¢ $-26 $-2 07-19 16:27
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No -27 $-26 95¢ $-26 +$0 07-20 08:35
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027? No -24 $-23 99¢ $-24 $-1 07-08 19:58
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? No -25 $-25 96¢ $-24 +$1 07-18 11:19
Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? No -25 $-23 94¢ $-23 $-0 05-30 00:11
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No +20 $20 98¢ $20 +$0 07-17 20:20
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No -20 $-20 98¢ $-20 +$0 07-12 16:17
Will US Bank fail by end of 2026? No +20 $20 97¢ $19 $-0 07-20 07:39
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027? No -20 $-19 94¢ $-19 +$0 07-13 11:29
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +20 $18 92¢ $18 +$0 07-18 10:22
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? No +18 $17 98¢ $17 +$0 07-18 21:23
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027? No +20 $19 86¢ $17 $-2 07-07 15:12
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +18 $15 92¢ $16 +$1 07-20 15:24
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No -15 $-15 97¢ $-15 +$0 07-19 07:25
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? No +45 $32 32¢ $14 $-18 07-10 15:15
Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026? No -10 $-10 98¢ $-10 +$0 07-09 20:29
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No -9 $-9 95¢ $-9 +$0 07-15 00:15
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No -8 $-10 93¢ $-7 +$2 07-20 15:19