Realized P&L
-$52
Unrealized P&L
+$44
Hit rate
94.2%
Resolved
33
Trades
3,843
lifetime
Volume
$37.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$641
27 positions
First seen
2026-05-06
last 10-27 09:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Other
40% 80% -$65
Politics
38% 100% +$5
Sports
14% 94% +$8
Crypto
8% — —
Tech
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 105 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +50 $49 98¢ $49 +$1 10-21 18:33
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No +50 $49 98¢ $49 +$0 10-25 22:59
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No +50 $48 97¢ $49 +$1 10-20 17:28
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No +50 $49 97¢ $49 $0 09-21 11:09
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +50 $47 97¢ $48 +$1 10-07 23:07
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +50 $43 96¢ $48 +$5 10-15 18:35
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No +43 $40 95¢ $41 +$1 10-27 12:06
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +40 $36 96¢ $39 +$3 10-26 10:00
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +40 $34 96¢ $38 +$4 10-26 00:26
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +35 $32 98¢ $34 +$3 10-23 12:55
EU dissolves before 2027? No +27 $27 98¢ $27 +$0 10-16 17:45
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? No +28 $21 94¢ $26 +$5 10-26 15:47
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +25 $23 98¢ $25 +$2 10-27 06:09
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +25 $23 98¢ $24 +$1 10-27 06:16
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +26 $18 91¢ $24 +$5 10-25 21:31
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? No +13 $11 98¢ $13 +$2 10-27 09:36
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No +10 $9 99¢ $10 +$1 10-25 22:47
Human moon landing in 2026? No +10 $9 99¢ $10 +$1 10-25 14:23
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +8 $5 97¢ $7 +$2 10-26 22:21
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 10-13 13:08
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 98¢ $5 +$0 10-23 21:32
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No +5 $4 97¢ $5 +$0 10-15 08:31
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No +5 $4 97¢ $5 +$0 07-31 12:30
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No +5 $3 94¢ $5 +$1 10-25 03:22
US x China Military clash before 2027? No +4 $1 98¢ $4 +$3 10-15 07:58
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +2 -$1 98¢ $2 +$3 10-26 08:42
NATO dissolves before 2027? No +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 09-02 16:09