Realized P&L (30d)
+$7
Unrealized P&L
+$41
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved (30d)
6
Trades (30d)
915
3,930 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$6.36K
$37.8K lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$721
26 positions
First seen
2026-05-06
last 10-30 13:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Other
40% 80% -$65
Politics
39% 100% +$5
Sports
14% 94% +$8
Crypto
8% — —
Tech
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 105 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No +50 $49 98¢ $49 +$1 10-29 17:54
EU dissolves before 2027? No +50 $49 98¢ $49 +$0 10-28 11:04
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +50 $48 97¢ $49 +$1 10-29 21:05
ebola pandemic in 2026 No +50 $48 97¢ $49 +$1 10-20 17:28
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No +50 $49 97¢ $49 $0 09-21 11:09
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +50 $47 97¢ $48 +$1 10-07 23:07
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +50 $46 96¢ $48 +$3 10-30 10:03
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +50 $43 96¢ $48 +$4 10-15 18:35
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +50 $44 95¢ $48 +$3 10-28 18:31
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +45 $40 98¢ $44 +$3 10-29 17:52
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +35 $32 98¢ $34 +$3 10-23 12:55
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +33 $30 98¢ $32 +$2 10-30 17:18
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +34 $24 92¢ $31 +$6 10-30 07:34
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +30 $28 98¢ $29 +$1 10-29 03:21
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? No +28 $21 92¢ $25 +$4 10-26 15:47
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? No +25 $23 98¢ $24 +$2 10-30 08:46
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No +20 $19 99¢ $20 +$1 10-29 00:58
Human moon landing in 2026? No +10 $9 99¢ $10 +$1 10-30 04:14
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No +10 $9 98¢ $10 +$1 10-30 13:02
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 10-13 13:08
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 98¢ $5 +$0 10-23 21:32
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No +5 $4 98¢ $5 +$0 10-15 08:31
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No +5 $4 97¢ $5 +$0 07-31 12:30
US x China Military clash before 2027? No +4 $1 98¢ $4 +$3 10-15 07:58
NATO dissolves before 2027? No +1 $1 97¢ $1 +$0 09-02 16:09
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No +1 $0 98¢ $1 +$1 10-28 10:39