Realized P&L
-$52
Unrealized P&L
+$53
Hit rate
94.2%
Resolved
33
Trades
4,109
lifetime
Volume
$38.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$660
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-06
last 11-02 22:29
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Other
40% 80% -$65
Politics
39% 100% +$5
Sports
13% 94% +$8
Crypto
7% — —
Tech
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 105 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +50 $46 99¢ $49 +$3 11-02 22:29
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +50 $47 97¢ $49 +$1 10-07 23:07
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No +50 $48 97¢ $49 +$1 10-20 17:28
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +50 $43 97¢ $48 +$5 10-15 18:35
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +50 $44 97¢ $48 +$5 11-02 20:51
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No +50 $49 96¢ $48 -$1 09-21 11:09
EU dissolves before 2027? No +45 $44 98¢ $44 +$0 11-01 22:35
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No +45 $44 98¢ $44 +$0 11-02 16:10
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No +34 $33 98¢ $33 +$1 11-02 05:30
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +30 $29 98¢ $29 +$1 11-02 20:07
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +30 $27 98¢ $29 +$3 11-02 15:24
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +30 $28 98¢ $29 +$2 11-02 07:48
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? No +28 $21 94¢ $26 +$5 10-26 15:47
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? No +25 $23 98¢ $24 +$2 10-30 08:46
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No +20 $19 99¢ $20 +$1 10-29 00:58
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +14 $6 96¢ $13 +$7 11-02 21:28
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +12 $9 98¢ $12 +$3 11-02 19:48
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No +10 $10 98¢ $10 +$0 11-02 12:53
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +10 $9 98¢ $10 +$1 11-02 20:48
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 11-01 23:53
Human moon landing in 2026? No +5 $4 99¢ $5 +$1 10-31 06:30
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No +5 $4 98¢ $5 +$1 11-02 20:15
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +5 $1 98¢ $5 +$3 11-02 21:38
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No +5 $4 97¢ $5 +$0 07-31 12:30
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +5 $3 96¢ $5 +$1 11-02 07:38
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No +5 $3 94¢ $5 +$2 11-01 14:20
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +4 $2 96¢ $4 +$2 11-02 15:12
US x China Military clash before 2027? No +4 $1 97¢ $4 +$3 10-15 07:58
NATO dissolves before 2027? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 09-02 16:09
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No +1 $0 98¢ $1 +$1 10-28 10:39