Realized P&L
+$14
Unrealized P&L
+$1.06K
Hit rate
59.8%
Resolved
14
Trades
61,587
lifetime
Volume
$4.25M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$69
Open exposure
$23.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 12:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
67%
86%
$-189
Other
29%
71%
+$203
Crypto
4%
—
—
Tech
1%
—
—
Sports
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 1191 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | Yes | -12,791 | $-6,268 | 50¢ | $-6331 | $-64 | 06-05 14:34 | |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | +3,157 | $3,020 | 100¢ | $3.2K | +$132 | 06-27 18:46 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | -2,037 | $-2,022 | 100¢ | $-2035 | $-13 | 06-17 17:02 | |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | Yes | -1,821 | $-960 | 50¢ | $-920 | +$40 | 06-29 11:39 | |
| UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? | No | +914 | $847 | 93¢ | $849 | +$2 | 06-29 03:21 | |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | No | -790 | $-748 | 100¢ | $-789 | $-41 | 06-14 21:18 | |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | Yes | +1,517 | $723 | 50¢ | $751 | +$27 | 06-23 02:24 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +735 | $616 | 86¢ | $636 | +$20 | 06-25 16:25 | |
| Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | -615 | $-606 | 100¢ | $-614 | $-7 | 06-05 21:10 | |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | +500 | $498 | 100¢ | $499 | +$1 | 06-10 15:22 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | -495 | $-535 | 100¢ | $-495 | +$40 | 06-07 18:34 | |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | No | -489 | $-469 | 99¢ | $-486 | $-17 | 06-19 15:12 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -495 | $-469 | 96¢ | $-475 | $-6 | 06-11 13:06 | |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | -481 | $-475 | 97¢ | $-465 | +$10 | 06-25 11:56 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | -440 | $-512 | 100¢ | $-439 | +$72 | 06-28 16:48 | |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | No | -433 | $-375 | 97¢ | $-422 | $-47 | 06-25 10:47 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | +422 | $-325 | 100¢ | $421 | +$747 | 06-28 15:25 | |
| Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? | No | +378 | $363 | 100¢ | $377 | +$15 | 06-18 22:55 | |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | No | -375 | $-369 | 100¢ | $-374 | $-6 | 06-04 04:04 | |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | -386 | $-376 | 91¢ | $-351 | +$24 | 06-28 05:38 | |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | Yes | +464 | $301 | 72¢ | $336 | +$35 | 06-30 01:42 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | +337 | $245 | 100¢ | $336 | +$90 | 06-16 23:48 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | +760 | $332 | 41¢ | $312 | $-20 | 06-27 13:35 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | -337 | $-287 | 84¢ | $-281 | +$6 | 06-30 00:37 | |
| Trump goes to space in 2026? | No | -278 | $-270 | 97¢ | $-271 | $-0 | 06-16 23:28 | |
| Human moon landing in 2026? | No | -259 | $-251 | 97¢ | $-252 | $-1 | 06-12 16:34 | |
| Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | +250 | $242 | 100¢ | $249 | +$6 | 06-01 16:04 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | +255 | $238 | 96¢ | $245 | +$8 | 06-27 15:54 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | -245 | $-246 | 100¢ | $-245 | +$1 | 06-03 16:08 | |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | No | +237 | $229 | 100¢ | $237 | +$7 | 06-17 04:06 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 2,035 | $204.8K | 244,248 | 230,690 | +13,558 | open | — | 04-01 15:35 |
| israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453 | 1,393 | $158.9K | 114,022 | 107,205 | +6,817 | open | — | 02-01 08:08 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 1,157 | $135.8K | 135,859 | 129,666 | +6,194 | open | — | 04-09 08:09 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 1,434 | $135.4K | 134,837 | 129,113 | +5,725 | open | — | 06-17 01:22 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 687 | $114.8K | 76,475 | 83,038 | -6,563 | open | — | 06-16 16:04 |
| maduro out by january 31 2026 318 | 145 | $114.2K | 61,466 | 57,371 | +4,095 | open | — | 01-03 11:09 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 1,120 | $106.7K | 129,927 | 114,560 | +15,367 | open | — | 06-01 02:35 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 819 | $91.3K | 125,637 | 114,162 | +11,475 | open | — | 04-01 01:40 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 576 | $81.0K | 78,163 | 63,853 | +14,309 | open | — | 02-28 07:30 |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | 529 | $68.6K | 56,041 | 46,467 | +9,574 | open | — | 03-01 04:31 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 470 | $64.9K | 39,307 | 27,732 | +11,575 | open | — | 02-02 12:18 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252 | 415 | $62.1K | 38,989 | 42,075 | -3,086 | open | — | 06-16 20:40 |
| us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498 | 781 | $60.1K | 77,192 | 74,477 | +2,716 | open | — | 01-17 02:14 |
| us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294 | 592 | $56.1K | 28,567 | 28,997 | -430 | open | — | 02-07 01:17 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | 304 | $55.8K | 41,269 | 32,741 | +8,529 | open | — | 06-17 07:59 |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | 1,025 | $53.4K | 49,082 | 41,848 | +7,234 | open | — | 02-28 07:16 |
| bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026 | 160 | $51.7K | 28,211 | 24,453 | +3,757 | open | — | 03-29 01:33 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 828 | $44.4K | 41,683 | 36,841 | +4,842 | open | — | 02-28 07:46 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 558 | $43.1K | 37,100 | 37,183 | -83 | open | — | 06-03 21:24 |
| will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota | 797 | $41.0K | 35,601 | 30,248 | +5,353 | open | — | 02-01 04:01 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 532 | $41.0K | 55,586 | 41,149 | +14,437 | open | — | 06-27 18:46 |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | 327 | $40.6K | 33,126 | 30,725 | +2,401 | open | — | 04-30 20:13 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026 | 196 | $40.4K | 22,124 | 23,182 | -1,058 | open | — | 06-17 01:01 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026 | 207 | $38.5K | 36,667 | 24,745 | +11,921 | open | — | 06-08 03:11 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | 467 | $36.1K | 35,155 | 33,824 | +1,331 | open | — | 06-01 01:37 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | 452 | $36.0K | 38,669 | 33,574 | +5,095 | open | — | 05-01 02:21 |
| another us government shutdown by february 14 | 697 | $35.6K | 27,335 | 25,663 | +1,672 | open | — | 02-14 21:58 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 288 | $33.1K | 28,857 | 28,137 | +720 | open | — | 04-06 10:28 |
| us forces enter iran by march 14 337 | 812 | $30.3K | 95,704 | 86,371 | +9,333 | open | — | 03-15 04:45 |
| israel strikes iran by february 28 2026 | 393 | $29.4K | 19,720 | 16,139 | +3,580 | open | — | 02-28 06:57 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||