Realized P&L
+$27.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$3.63K
Hit rate
63.2%
Resolved
1,302
Trades
116,016
lifetime
Volume
$6.40M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$55
Open exposure
$33.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-26 21:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 242 days
Categories
Politics
57% 51% +$19,940
Other
36% 50% +$2,936
Crypto
5% 65% +$1,330
Tech
1% 68% +$121
Sports
1% 45% +$3,565
Pop-Culture
0% 33% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 924 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes +7,917 $5,060 100¢ $7.9K +$2,849 10-26 14:04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +6,630 $4,400 36¢ $2.4K -$1,993 10-26 21:08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +1,554 $908 94¢ $1.5K +$560 10-19 19:19
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +1,500 $1,455 98¢ $1.5K +$11 10-21 00:55
EU dissolves before 2027? No -1,434 -$1,409 98¢ $-1411 -$2 10-16 17:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +1,302 $328 94¢ $1.2K +$902 10-26 18:35
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No +1,223 $1,145 99¢ $1.2K +$63 10-24 19:52
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No -1,164 -$1,135 98¢ $-1147 -$12 10-16 03:58
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes +5,575 $1,284 20¢ $1.1K -$141 10-25 10:31
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +1,234 $977 92¢ $1.1K +$164 10-25 02:16
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +978 $931 97¢ $945 +$14 10-16 06:11
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +886 $854 99¢ $873 +$20 10-25 10:46
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes +3,066 $673 26¢ $782 +$109 10-25 13:27
china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932 No +944 $636 80¢ $755 +$119 10-17 16:32
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? No +786 $235 91¢ $715 +$481 10-23 14:51
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +710 $680 98¢ $696 +$15 10-09 21:33
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,040 $736 65¢ $676 -$60 10-26 15:08
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +6,794 $486 10¢ $659 +$173 10-26 19:24
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +755 $657 87¢ $657 +$1 10-26 05:37
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +690 $586 94¢ $648 +$63 10-19 05:55
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No +736 $625 85¢ $626 +$0 10-12 16:01
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -615 -$581 96¢ $-593 -$12 09-01 03:48
Human moon landing in 2026? No -580 -$568 99¢ $-573 -$5 07-24 22:26
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No +720 $552 80¢ $572 +$21 10-06 21:17
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +662 $397 86¢ $566 +$168 10-25 13:34
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes +724 $492 78¢ $561 +$69 10-26 06:46
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No -565 -$525 96¢ $-542 -$18 09-20 03:58
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes +2,686 $517 20¢ $537 +$20 10-26 20:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +526 $463 98¢ $517 +$54 10-24 18:41
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +538 $522 96¢ $516 -$6 10-12 06:36