Realized P&L (90d)
-$1.30K
Unrealized P&L
+$479
Hit rate
38.0%
Resolved (90d)
350
Trades (90d)
31,711
117,015 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$1.39M
$6.39M lifetime
Avg / trade
$55
Open exposure
$30.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-04 19:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 249 days
Categories
Politics
56% 51% +$19,757
Other
37% 50% +$4,300
Crypto
5% 64% +$1,309
Tech
1% 68% +$121
Sports
1% 45% +$3,565
Pop-Culture
0% 33% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 924 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +6,673 $4,359 44¢ $2.9K -$1,409 11-04 17:48
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +3,005 $2,573 87¢ $2.6K +$50 11-04 04:55
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +2,538 $2,452 98¢ $2.5K +$24 10-29 11:39
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +1,953 $1,268 94¢ $1.8K +$578 11-03 22:05
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +1,500 $1,455 98¢ $1.5K +$17 10-21 00:55
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +1,585 $1,297 92¢ $1.5K +$153 11-04 12:02
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes +1,606 $983 77¢ $1.2K +$254 11-03 01:22
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No -1,164 -$1,135 98¢ $-1146 -$12 10-16 03:58
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +1,115 $964 86¢ $964 +$1 11-03 15:17
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +978 $929 96¢ $942 +$13 11-04 17:35
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,967 $1,062 44¢ $856 -$206 11-04 18:09
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes +3,484 $756 24¢ $854 +$97 11-04 19:03
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +944 $636 86¢ $807 +$171 10-17 16:32
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +9,044 $666 9¢ $782 +$116 11-04 02:43
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes +5,967 $1,299 12¢ $746 -$554 11-04 18:40
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No +723 $651 99¢ $717 +$67 10-27 23:52
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? No +786 $235 91¢ $715 +$481 10-23 14:51
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +710 $680 98¢ $698 +$18 10-09 21:33
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +735 $624 93¢ $683 +$60 11-04 00:25
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? No +799 $423 84¢ $667 +$244 11-04 05:58
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No +735 $560 88¢ $643 +$83 11-04 18:40
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -615 -$581 96¢ $-592 -$11 09-01 03:48
Human moon landing in 2026? No -580 -$568 99¢ $-574 -$7 07-24 22:26
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +2,212 $318 26¢ $564 +$246 11-04 18:32
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +998 $405 56¢ $557 +$152 11-04 18:52
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes +3,801 $679 15¢ $551 -$128 11-04 07:08
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No -565 -$525 97¢ $-547 -$22 09-20 03:58
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +779 $563 67¢ $522 -$42 11-02 22:11
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No -505 -$497 99¢ $-502 -$4 07-21 14:41
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +573 $453 88¢ $502 +$48 11-04 15:58