Realized P&L (90d)
-$1.59K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.21K
Hit rate
35.3%
Resolved (90d)
348
Trades (90d)
31,346
115,839 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$1.36M
$6.33M lifetime
Avg / trade
$55
Open exposure
$29.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-02 14:43
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 246 days
Categories
Politics
57% 51% +$19,742
Other
37% 50% +$3,475
Crypto
5% 64% +$1,309
Tech
1% 68% +$121
Sports
1% 45% +$3,565
Pop-Culture
0% 33% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 924 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +6,720 $4,421 44¢ $3.0K -$1,447 11-02 13:40
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +2,538 $2,452 97¢ $2.5K +$11 10-29 11:39
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +1,631 $973 95¢ $1.5K +$576 11-01 04:06
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +1,755 $1,530 88¢ $1.5K +$6 10-31 12:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? No +1,542 $1,491 96¢ $1.5K -$4 11-02 14:12
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +1,500 $1,455 98¢ $1.5K +$14 10-21 00:55
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes +1,622 $995 76¢ $1.2K +$245 11-02 09:26
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No -1,164 -$1,135 99¢ $-1149 -$14 10-16 03:58
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +1,234 $977 92¢ $1.1K +$152 10-25 02:16
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes +5,720 $1,277 18¢ $1.0K -$248 11-01 19:57
Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? Yes +1,000 $509 100¢ $999 +$490 10-31 23:01
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +1,015 $965 96¢ $978 +$13 10-31 00:48
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +997 $672 86¢ $852 +$181 11-01 06:44
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +875 $755 93¢ $814 +$59 11-01 15:54
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +944 $636 82¢ $769 +$133 10-17 16:32
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? No +1,027 $709 74¢ $760 +$50 10-28 18:05
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes +2,882 $599 26¢ $749 +$150 11-01 09:48
EU dissolves before 2027? No -761 -$755 98¢ $-748 +$6 11-02 00:12
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No +723 $651 99¢ $715 +$64 10-27 23:52
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +710 $680 98¢ $697 +$17 10-09 21:33
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? No +786 $235 88¢ $696 +$461 10-23 14:51
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +7,044 $510 10¢ $683 +$173 10-31 11:35
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -615 -$581 97¢ $-596 -$15 09-01 03:48
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No +720 $552 82¢ $590 +$39 10-06 21:17
Human moon landing in 2026? No -580 -$568 99¢ $-574 -$7 07-24 22:26
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No -565 -$525 97¢ $-548 -$23 09-20 03:58
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +948 $398 56¢ $529 +$131 11-02 13:39
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No -505 -$497 99¢ $-502 -$4 07-21 14:41
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? No -500 -$465 98¢ $-492 -$27 05-03 19:40
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +568 $455 86¢ $486 +$31 10-29 17:31