Realized P&L
-$30.4K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.89K
Hit rate
10.8%
Resolved
1,888
Trades
56,507
lifetime
Volume
$3.32M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$59
Open exposure
$8.91K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-16
last 10-30 16:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 182 days
Categories
Other
54% 6% -$15,781
Politics
38% 9% -$14,037
Tech
3% 8% -$453
Sports
2% 8% -$60
Crypto
2% 6% -$114
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 5627 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No +836 $821 93¢ $779 -$41 10-30 10:27
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +880 $795 88¢ $776 -$19 10-30 02:21
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +710 $647 88¢ $624 -$23 10-30 03:53
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026 No +623 $609 100¢ $622 +$12 10-19 18:39
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No +643 $605 92¢ $588 -$16 10-29 17:31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +596 $671 89¢ $529 -$142 10-30 15:05
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? No +610 $574 77¢ $470 -$104 10-29 14:21
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? No +516 $507 90¢ $467 -$40 10-30 15:10
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +660 $517 70¢ $465 -$52 10-30 10:07
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? No +391 $407 96¢ $374 -$33 10-30 16:35
Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election? No +404 $353 80¢ $325 -$28 10-30 10:20
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes +1,070 $1,004 27¢ $290 -$715 09-30 20:09
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? No +660 $238 34¢ $228 -$10 10-30 12:33
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? No +393 $297 57¢ $224 -$73 10-24 21:11
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +210 $213 95¢ $199 -$14 10-28 10:06
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes +660 $241 30¢ $195 -$46 10-29 19:28
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 No -195 -$132 97¢ $-190 -$58 06-26 12:00
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +200 $232 93¢ $186 -$46 10-29 15:05
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes +265 $223 70¢ $185 -$38 10-11 07:49
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +208 $194 88¢ $182 -$11 10-29 14:57
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No -156 -$123 95¢ $-148 -$25 10-29 21:47
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No +308 $159 45¢ $139 -$20 10-29 23:00
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +159 $143 82¢ $131 -$12 07-16 23:36
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? Yes +565 $187 23¢ $130 -$58 10-28 08:58
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No +152 $136 74¢ $113 -$23 10-06 14:02
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +1,320 $125 6¢ $82 -$42 10-29 17:31
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes +220 $79 34¢ $74 -$5 10-30 08:59
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? No +213 $200 34¢ $72 -$128 10-29 20:37
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat? No +144 $79 45¢ $65 -$14 10-29 15:58
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +798 $116 7¢ $55 -$61 10-30 07:28