Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$140

Hit rate

12.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,763

lifetime

Volume

$658.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$238

Open exposure

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 10-25 12:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

89% 23% -$8,808

Politics

11% 7% -$2,090

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?	No	+2	$7	100¢	$2	-$4	07-11 14:37
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	+2	$3	79¢	$2	-$1	09-30 16:40
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	Yes	-58	$1	2¢	$-1	-$2	06-09 16:08
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	No	+0	$15	98¢	$0	-$15	07-01 13:06
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+0	$111	96¢	$0	-$111	06-24 12:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	+0	$7	34¢	$0	-$7	10-22 19:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed rate hike in 2026?	176	$53.5K	65,180	65,180	+0	Yes	-$1,222	09-14 20:39
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	82	$47.5K	55,496	55,496	+0	open	—	10-22 13:22
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	119	$45.5K	63,695	63,695	+0	open	—	10-22 07:10
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	147	$37.4K	38,053	38,053	+0	Yes	-$917	09-11 12:13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	125	$35.1K	40,537	40,537	+0	Yes	-$477	09-11 12:17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	54	$26.3K	19,779	19,778	+1	Yes	+$124	07-28 10:01
will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt252pt50 in march	163	$24.4K	23,583	26,209	-2,626	Yes	-$2,152	04-10 11:25
cbb ill hou 2026 03 26	7	$23.8K	20,794	20,775	+18	Illinois Fighting Illini	-$161	03-26 19:08
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	81	$23.6K	23,968	23,968	+0	Yes	-$324	09-13 20:55
cbb tenn iowast 2026 03 27	59	$23.2K	18,746	18,746	+0	Tennessee Volunteers	-$91	03-27 19:33
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	63	$20.4K	38,182	38,182	+0	open	—	09-04 11:32
another fed rate hike in 2026	66	$19.8K	13,029	13,029	+0	open	—	10-24 07:02
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	89	$14.3K	16,143	16,143	+0	Yes	-$589	08-06 14:03
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	61	$14.2K	7,485	7,485	+0	open	—	08-15 03:19
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	71	$13.3K	14,256	14,256	+0	Yes	-$610	08-03 09:11
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	84	$12.2K	14,661	14,661	+0	open	—	10-23 03:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	29	$11.3K	27,195	27,194	+0	Yes	-$230	06-08 04:48
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	48	$11.3K	10,920	10,920	+0	No	-$171	07-29 16:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	4	$11.0K	8,251	8,251	+0	Yes	+$248	06-11 14:54
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	9	$10.7K	5,477	5,477	+0	No	-$1	06-17 01:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	10	$9.5K	9,444	9,444	+0	No	-$253	06-26 21:03
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	30	$9.5K	6,195	6,195	+0	Yes	-$249	04-19 08:15
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	76	$9.2K	9,357	9,357	+0	No	-$393	08-03 16:58
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	19	$8.9K	13,579	13,579	-0	Yes	-$48	06-11 16:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	11	$8.1K	11,960	11,960	+0	Yes	-$132	06-08 11:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	43	$8.1K	9,016	9,016	+0	No	-$34	09-10 13:14
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	55	$6.9K	8,461	8,461	+0	open	—	10-02 12:21
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	35	$6.7K	9,231	9,231	+0	No	+$404	07-29 15:55
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	53	$6.0K	6,876	6,876	+0	No	-$452	07-28 03:41
will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt502pt75 in march	77	$5.8K	5,814	7,250	-1,436	No	-$277	04-10 11:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 12:05:54	No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	Hike 25 bps	BUY	92	1¢	$1	0xfd0754…
10-24 07:02:47	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	423	74¢	$313	0x4fefab…
10-24 06:17:51	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	755	74¢	$559	0xe25b3f…
10-24 03:45:14	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	795	74¢	$588	0xff1b32…
10-24 03:45:14	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	239	74¢	$177	0xa1717a…
10-24 02:12:18	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xc01d8e…
10-24 02:12:06	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	74¢	$111	0x902637…
10-24 02:12:05	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	479	74¢	$355	0xbf1494…
10-24 02:12:05	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,304	74¢	$965	0x559517…
10-24 02:12:05	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	74¢	$73	0x4dd30a…
10-24 02:12:05	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x103b39…
10-23 03:11:47	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	29	76¢	$22	0x60c2af…
10-22 23:20:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	477	28¢	$133	0xb32946…
10-22 23:19:36	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	163	73¢	$119	0x6f0b45…
10-22 22:50:24	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	73¢	$8	0x454e8b…
10-22 22:50:24	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	73¢	$7	0x16aaf7…
10-22 22:50:14	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0xaf552b…
10-22 22:50:14	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	73¢	$8	0x73d3c7…
10-22 22:47:12	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	73¢	$5	0xc6c126…
10-22 22:46:51	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	73¢	$15	0xa7dfe5…
10-22 22:46:50	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0x669739…
10-22 22:46:45	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x363e49…
10-22 21:08:50	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	378	74¢	$280	0xb01ce7…
10-22 20:02:29	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	172	76¢	$131	0x07122d…
10-22 19:29:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	318	28¢	$89	0x9dde1a…
10-22 19:13:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0xff9e78…
10-22 19:07:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	16	33¢	$5	0x6f00a1…
10-22 18:53:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,138	68¢	$2,134	0x2bcf99…
10-22 18:13:51	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	399	75¢	$299	0xca0878…
10-22 18:13:51	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x380ad1…
10-22 18:13:50	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	28	75¢	$21	0x3fc7e4…
10-22 18:10:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	176	29¢	$51	0x91f46f…
10-22 18:09:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	127	28¢	$36	0x6cc6dc…
10-22 18:09:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	17	32¢	$5	0x053726…
10-22 17:33:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	29¢	$2	0xc7702b…
10-22 17:23:54	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	BUY	633	76¢	$481	0xba70f9…
10-22 16:55:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	30¢	$17	0xe20f90…
10-22 16:55:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	52	30¢	$15	0xd32af1…
10-22 16:55:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	132	30¢	$39	0x6af435…
10-22 16:55:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x61b739…
10-22 16:55:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x3162a9…
10-22 16:55:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	220	30¢	$66	0x27fbc3…
10-22 16:55:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	87	30¢	$26	0x2690ec…
10-22 16:55:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	103	30¢	$31	0x103c17…
10-22 16:55:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	202	30¢	$61	0x0561a4…
10-22 16:55:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	174	30¢	$52	0x9d4e8c…
10-22 16:47:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	409	69¢	$282	0x79d4b9…
10-22 16:47:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	368	69¢	$254	0xb5062b…
10-22 16:47:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	508	69¢	$350	0x891bf9…
10-22 16:47:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	401	69¢	$277	0x80d336…
10-22 16:47:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	401	69¢	$277	0x740edb…
10-22 16:47:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	471	69¢	$325	0x6a1c74…
10-22 16:47:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	149	69¢	$103	0x26819b…
10-22 16:47:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$0	0x164156…
10-22 16:47:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	368	69¢	$254	0x070d09…
10-22 16:44:29	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,004	77¢	$773	0xa32943…
10-22 15:59:53	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0xf6b8aa…
10-22 15:59:53	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	80	77¢	$62	0xbc4928…
10-22 15:59:53	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	293	77¢	$225	0x6a6bbe…
10-22 15:59:53	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	125	77¢	$96	0x3c3653…
10-22 15:59:53	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	876	77¢	$674	0x18a6a6…
10-22 15:59:36	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	77¢	$41	0x58ac37…
10-22 15:50:18	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1,328	76¢	$1,009	0x9da1d3…
10-22 15:50:18	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	388	75¢	$291	0x324661…
10-22 15:50:17	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xdd76e3…
10-22 15:50:17	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	584	75¢	$438	0xbe5f2b…
10-22 15:44:57	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	77¢	$13	0xa7e2c7…
10-22 15:44:26	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,403	77¢	$1,080	0xaaa6ba…
10-22 15:13:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	33	74¢	$25	0xad0be0…
10-22 15:12:54	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	445	75¢	$334	0xdeb222…
10-22 15:12:54	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	385	75¢	$289	0xda82c8…
10-22 15:12:54	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	543	75¢	$407	0x33a1c5…
10-22 15:12:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	94	72¢	$68	0x09ed4c…
10-22 15:12:33	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x8acecc…
10-22 15:12:33	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	77¢	$64	0x1cc3a7…
10-22 13:22:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,975	91¢	$2,707	0x2d5e9f…
10-22 12:53:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,975	90¢	$2,678	0x1effb3…
10-22 07:10:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	698	12¢	$84	0x4a134c…
10-21 17:54:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	698	12¢	$84	0xd31f3c…
10-20 19:45:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	163	58¢	$94	0x82db33…
10-20 11:48:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x43e70a…
10-20 11:48:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0xb7a050…
10-20 11:38:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	187	57¢	$107	0xa7db4b…
10-16 20:23:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	46	35¢	$16	0x52e59e…
10-16 20:23:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	31	35¢	$11	0x4bc040…
10-16 20:23:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	171	35¢	$60	0x8e4ba2…
10-16 12:56:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x2cf4d3…
10-16 11:36:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	252	38¢	$96	0x7b514b…
10-16 10:01:45	another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	SELL	1,039	78¢	$810	0x4f799b…
10-16 08:56:27	another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	SELL	81	78¢	$64	0x904827…
10-16 08:56:27	another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	SELL	320	78¢	$249	0x38912f…
10-16 07:09:52	No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	Hike 25 bps	SELL	194	11¢	$21	0xb2aad9…
10-16 05:56:18	another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0x5359de…
10-16 05:53:06	another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	SELL	1,191	78¢	$929	0x842927…
10-16 05:46:31	No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	Hike 25 bps	BUY	97	22¢	$21	0x9154b9…
10-16 05:41:36	another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	BUY	2,306	78¢	$1,799	0xbbbee2…
10-16 05:32:40	another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xf67d85…
10-16 05:32:40	another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	BUY	308	81¢	$249	0x6f4460…
10-15 07:59:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,259	25¢	$565	0x62fe7e…
10-15 07:43:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,322	25¢	$1,330	0x331d10…