Grounded-Bath — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$42

Unrealized P&L

-$103

Hit rate

46.0%

Resolved

Trades

356

lifetime

Volume

$22.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

$2.20K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 10-19 08:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

62% 33% +$215

Other

36% 55% -$120

Tech

2% 50% -$33

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% 0% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+1,541	$1,480	97¢	$1.5K	+$19	09-08 12:38
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+295	$173	68¢	$201	+$27	10-19 08:05
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+190	$159	61¢	$116	-$43	08-25 07:09
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$94	98¢	$98	+$4	08-25 08:28
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+221	$49	39¢	$86	+$37	08-25 07:09
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	+259	$114	32¢	$83	-$31	10-19 08:06
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	+600	$182	11¢	$66	-$116	10-10 11:51
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?	No	+55	$55	100¢	$55	+$0	07-08 00:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$4.8K	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	08-12 01:36
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$3.4K	3,590	3,179	+411	open	—	08-25 07:09
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	97	$2.2K	10,379	13,003	-2,624	Yes	+$278	05-10 06:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	19	$1.8K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	-$20	05-10 03:15
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	1	$1.5K	1,541	0	+1,541	open	—	09-08 12:38
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	5	$1.3K	1,599	1,045	+554	open	—	10-19 08:06
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	46	$1.2K	12,848	12,429	+419	Yes	+$27	05-10 06:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$968	1,100	0	+1,100	Yes	+$132	10-19 08:07
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	11	$831	1,857	1,257	+600	open	—	10-10 11:51
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	17	$732	1,360	1,360	+0	No	-$97	07-08 09:37
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$716	2,200	2,200	+0	No	-$12	05-10 06:48
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	36	$681	23,827	23,827	+0	Yes	-$63	05-23 02:56
will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	15	$625	910	910	+0	Yes	-$6	07-08 08:16
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$465	233	233	+0	No	$0	04-10 02:31
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	36	$192	1,437	1,437	+0	No	-$40	07-08 00:38
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	30	$187	1,643	1,643	+0	No	+$7	07-07 15:51
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	3	$181	2,647	2,647	+0	Yes	-$15	05-10 01:53
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$132	1,100	0	+1,100	No	-$132	10-19 08:07
Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026?	1	$99	100	0	+100	No	+$1	06-16 09:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$94	100	0	+100	open	—	08-25 08:28
si hit 150 high jan 2026	2	$74	75	0	+75	No	+$1	01-27 16:40
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$64	5,862	5,862	+0	No	-$6	03-29 07:18
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$60	60	0	+60	No	+$0	09-08 12:58
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?	1	$58	264	0	+264	open	—	08-25 08:27
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?	1	$55	55	0	+55	open	—	07-08 00:43
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026?	1	$47	54	0	+54	open	—	08-12 01:40
Syrian troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?	3	$45	357	357	+0	open	—	10-09 16:56
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?	1	$39	40	0	+40	No	+$1	08-12 01:37
gc hit 6000 high jan 2026	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	01-27 16:15
Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$22	40	0	+40	open	—	08-12 01:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 08:07:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,100	12¢	$132	0xa34620…
10-19 08:07:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,100	88¢	$968	0x1921fd…
10-19 08:06:45	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0xece48e…
10-19 08:06:35	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	440	40¢	$175	0x8145b0…
10-19 08:05:24	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	505	59¢	$299	0x1cc72e…
10-10 11:51:18	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	600	27¢	$162	0xfbcc49…
10-10 08:51:15	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	799	41¢	$328	0x21ee70…
10-10 08:51:04	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	800	59¢	$473	0x6d0a98…
10-09 17:18:22	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	54	27¢	$15	0x2ba83e…
10-09 16:56:38	Syrian troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	357	6¢	$22	0x73570e…
10-09 13:38:03	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	902	26¢	$235	0x85253c…
10-09 12:55:18	us iran ceasefire continues through the midterms	No	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xd1584e…
10-09 12:38:48	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x707bb9…
10-09 11:11:49	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x4e6788…
10-09 08:56:58	us iran ceasefire continues through the midterms	No	SELL	301	25¢	$75	0xe000f9…
10-09 04:57:42	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	600	27¢	$162	0x6e23ce…
10-09 03:57:35	Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 31?	Yes	SELL	56	2¢	$1	0x21bd86…
10-09 03:57:17	Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15?	Yes	SELL	26	2¢	$1	0x9efdb3…
10-09 03:56:30	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0xf28f29…
10-09 03:32:41	Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15?	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0xfadfbb…
10-09 03:20:44	us iran ceasefire continues through the midterms	No	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0xce117c…
10-09 03:19:21	us iran ceasefire continues through the midterms	No	BUY	400	28¢	$112	0x5c969c…
10-09 03:17:29	will iran release a trump voicemail about the strait of hormuz by october 15	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x4eb1d3…
10-09 03:17:02	will iran release a trump voicemail about the strait of hormuz by october 15	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xe307dd…
10-09 03:16:53	will iran release a trump voicemail about the strait of hormuz by october 15	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x6aa224…
10-09 03:15:05	syrian troops enter yemen by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	57	6¢	$3	0x3fdda6…
10-09 03:14:33	syrian troops enter yemen by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	300	7¢	$20	0x08a467…
10-09 03:13:51	will iran release a trump voicemail about the strait of hormuz by october 31	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x39278e…
10-09 03:12:23	will iran release a trump voicemail about the strait of hormuz by october 31	Yes	BUY	26	3¢	$1	0xd70dc8…
10-09 03:11:41	will iran release a trump voicemail about the strait of hormuz by october 15	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x331a03…
09-08 12:58:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x3aaeaf…
09-08 12:38:55	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	1,541	96¢	$1,480	0xbee22d…
08-25 08:28:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x2b966c…
08-25 08:27:15	Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	264	22¢	$58	0x6e7160…
08-25 07:09:19	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,600	53¢	$842	0x5dd589…
08-25 07:09:13	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1,579	47¢	$747	0x3a2a6a…
08-12 01:41:40	Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0x4d08ce…
08-12 01:40:30	Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	54	87¢	$47	0x23bb7d…
08-12 01:37:16	Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x767cbf…
08-12 01:36:33	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,790	56¢	$1,001	0xa4344c…
08-12 01:36:25	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	1,800	44¢	$796	0xed6261…
08-12 01:36:04	Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2,400	99¢	$2,386	0x1ea12f…
07-08 09:37:35	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	647	18¢	$114	0xf3f39c…
07-08 08:17:08	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	112	30¢	$33	0xf38ab2…
07-08 08:17:04	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x083491…
07-08 08:17:01	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	187	30¢	$56	0x48106c…
07-08 08:16:59	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	93	34¢	$32	0x114c44…
07-08 08:16:58	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	197	34¢	$67	0x7ceca9…
07-08 08:16:41	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0xda2679…
07-08 07:36:04	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0xacb27b…
07-08 07:33:17	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	300	34¢	$102	0x7013ef…
07-08 07:24:32	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	350	28¢	$98	0xd5e75e…
07-08 07:11:07	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	37	29¢	$11	0x0e1f4a…
07-08 07:11:02	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	113	29¢	$33	0xc16b32…
07-08 07:10:56	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	29	29¢	$8	0x957494…
07-08 07:10:53	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	139	29¢	$40	0xeb126e…
07-08 07:10:46	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	31	29¢	$9	0xc00074…
07-08 06:50:49	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x40b0f6…
07-08 06:16:46	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	355	28¢	$99	0x05024a…
07-08 05:17:04	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	160	31¢	$50	0xb2d6dc…
07-08 05:08:34	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	496	34¢	$169	0x3b8ee3…
07-08 04:54:43	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0xe5d4e7…
07-08 04:27:08	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	86	34¢	$29	0x7dbe6a…
07-08 02:40:10	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	28	34¢	$10	0x9f5146…
07-08 02:19:13	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x4a6111…
07-08 01:25:47	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	69	34¢	$23	0xafbe0e…
07-08 01:20:11	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xac7b97…
07-08 00:59:08	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xffb9d8…
07-08 00:58:46	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x81f1c5…
07-08 00:58:43	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x55505d…
07-08 00:44:32	Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	2,400	99¢	$2,383	0x174af8…
07-08 00:43:32	Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xef7be6…
07-08 00:41:37	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0xc3a6a5…
07-08 00:38:31	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	156	2¢	$3	0x536ca1…
07-08 00:38:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	468	2¢	$9	0xf4e564…
07-08 00:11:16	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	41	3¢	$1	0x479493…
07-07 23:48:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	110	3¢	$3	0x5a3df6…
07-07 23:45:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x4d4510…
07-07 23:41:37	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	82	4¢	$3	0x1047a3…
07-07 23:40:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0xe737ae…
07-07 23:40:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0xe2b2f6…
07-07 23:40:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0xd12c3c…
07-07 23:40:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0xb67e80…
07-07 23:40:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	18	3¢	$1	0x6e8684…
07-07 23:40:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0x2f5fc4…
07-07 23:40:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	16	3¢	$0	0x2e29b8…
07-07 23:40:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x05dcc6…
07-07 17:31:01	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	176	6¢	$11	0x4a32b2…
07-07 17:29:56	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	32	6¢	$2	0x59fdad…
07-07 17:29:40	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x26b2c2…
07-07 17:23:08	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	210	7¢	$15	0x4e1e91…
07-07 16:07:08	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x8c6d9d…
07-07 16:06:35	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0x63de9a…
07-07 16:04:22	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x6ae0a0…
07-07 15:53:29	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	167	9¢	$15	0x5a2890…
07-07 15:51:50	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	117	6¢	$7	0x59dfdf…
07-07 15:51:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	35	8¢	$3	0xe5d19a…
07-07 15:51:38	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	68	8¢	$5	0xcb0f06…
07-07 15:51:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x0959d1…
07-07 15:51:22	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	83	6¢	$5	0x03efba…