Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$319

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

26.3%

Resolved

154

Trades

810

lifetime

Volume

$11.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-08-05

last 08-12 14:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

64% 31% -$222

Politics

24% 12% -$70

Crypto

5% — —

Tech

5% 17% -$26

Sports

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 204 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	8	$189	150	150	+0	open	—	08-10 18:14
Will Jane Poole-Wilson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	6	$188	150	150	+0	No	-$5	08-12 14:30
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	5	$170	100	100	+0	open	—	08-11 13:17
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Louisiana Senate election by 10%-15%?	3	$168	100	100	+0	open	—	08-12 02:57
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?	5	$167	100	100	+0	open	—	08-09 21:40
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	8	$164	170	170	+0	No	-$13	08-11 13:38
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	4	$162	100	100	+0	open	—	08-11 13:37
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?	6	$155	128	128	+0	open	—	08-12 14:37
gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	6	$131	70	70	+0	No	$0	08-11 14:22
will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	7	$116	150	150	+0	Yes	-$2	08-12 14:29
will clavicular visit japan in 2026 20260714153003050	5	$107	100	100	+0	open	—	08-10 14:01
will openai launch a new consumer hardware product by october 31 2026	4	$103	100	100	+0	open	—	08-07 11:43
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?	4	$102	100	100	+0	open	—	08-11 13:45
israel withdraws from lebanon by september 30 2026	6	$101	145	145	+0	No	$0	08-10 21:34
Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?	6	$101	100	100	+0	Yes	-$3	08-12 14:24
Will the Republican Party win the PA-11 House seat?	4	$100	100	100	+0	open	—	08-07 19:31
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?	4	$99	100	100	+0	open	—	08-12 14:39
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	4	$98	100	100	+0	open	—	08-12 14:36
will base launch a token by september 30 2026	2	$97	50	50	+0	No	+$0	08-08 16:56
Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?	4	$97	100	100	+0	open	—	08-11 13:52
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$97	50	50	+0	open	—	08-10 14:44
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?	7	$96	130	80	+50	No	-$5	08-08 19:35
nba will anthony davis be traded by next season	2	$95	50	50	+0	No	+$0	08-07 12:42
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	2	$95	50	50	+0	No	$0	08-08 02:01
Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027?	4	$95	50	50	+0	open	—	08-07 00:58
Will Wes Streeting be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	3	$95	50	50	+0	open	—	08-08 14:50
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?	2	$94	50	50	+0	No	-$2	08-11 13:16
will iran target a arab country on august 10 2026 20260801004719127	5	$93	50	50	+0	No	+$1	08-10 08:22
will israel election happen as scheduled 20260720204824362	2	$93	50	50	+0	open	—	08-07 23:32
Jonathan Majors as Kang?	2	$93	50	50	+0	open	—	08-07 15:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 14:41:16	Will NRPUP win the second-most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?	No	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x67f99b…
08-12 14:41:10	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0xb38afe…
08-12 14:41:00	will tsla reach 375 by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0xd5cdab…
08-12 14:40:55	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x5ca9f5…
08-12 14:40:52	will the brink of war score at least 80 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260810195038381	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x052b64…
08-12 14:40:48	Will the Republican Party win the CA-43 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x248432…
08-12 14:40:40	Will Youn Yuh-jung – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0xe2e94a…
08-12 14:40:36	Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xf220a5…
08-12 14:40:31	Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$1	0x88ce6d…
08-12 14:40:27	Will Dusan Vlahovic stay at Juventus?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x07fe45…
08-12 14:40:12	Will Danae Figueroa win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x968482…
08-12 14:40:01	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in August?	Yes	SELL	27	2¢	$1	0x55b905…
08-12 14:39:57	Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xc43b27…
08-12 14:39:52	Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x7da456…
08-12 14:39:48	Will Jonathan Reynolds be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0x312ae0…
08-12 14:39:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x7e58c8…
08-12 14:39:37	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 21 2026 20260722225036945	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xf92366…
08-12 14:39:33	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x127967…
08-12 14:39:28	will iran target a arab country on august 14 2026 20260801004719131	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xc2bf0c…
08-12 14:39:24	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-11 House seat?	No	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0x1d71ee…
08-12 14:39:18	Will Steph Curry's next team be Golden State Warriors?	No	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xee8894…
08-12 14:39:15	Will the Republican Party win the PA-09 House seat?	No	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xc55c4b…
08-12 14:39:10	Will the Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat?	No	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x1fbe9f…
08-12 14:39:04	Will the Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat?	No	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xbc7faa…
08-12 14:38:58	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-05 House seat?	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xc05b97…
08-12 14:37:49	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x5111b9…
08-12 14:37:45	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0xc64867…
08-12 14:37:37	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	16	15¢	$2	0x88e754…
08-12 14:37:30	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 17 2026 20260722225036941	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x0d62b0…
08-12 14:37:19	Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x2f9202…
08-12 14:37:13	reckless ben in jail by december 31 20260714181944088	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x9a9c81…
08-12 14:37:06	Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x206e40…
08-12 14:36:58	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x11fd15…
08-12 14:36:52	Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0xa929c5…
08-12 14:36:45	Will Bale Dalton be the FL-07 Democratic nominee?	No	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x8fa659…
08-12 14:36:37	will canvas valuation hit high 75b by december 31	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x0fdbeb…
08-12 14:36:28	Will Democrats win exactly 46 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x7a0d98…
08-12 14:36:21	Will Daniel Vilela win the Governor of Goiás election?	No	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x46d2e9…
08-12 14:36:13	Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x363367…
08-12 14:35:37	Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0x85cd78…
08-12 14:35:31	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-17 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x15a1d7…
08-12 14:35:21	Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?	No	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x7629dd…
08-12 14:35:15	Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$3	0x913bcf…
08-12 14:35:04	Will the Democratic Party win the TN-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x4d527f…
08-12 14:34:58	wti closes above 81 on august 12 2026	No	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0xd9acf6…
08-12 14:34:52	will tim walz announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241619	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$3	0xc834a8…
08-12 14:34:45	Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$3	0xe9d257…
08-12 14:34:39	Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x714d88…
08-12 14:34:31	Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x79674f…
08-12 14:34:24	Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x577f14…
08-12 14:34:18	will kai or speed die to a witch 20260808122756578	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xaab9e1…
08-12 14:34:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x4abdef…
08-12 14:34:03	will the highest score achieved on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 80 or higher 20260723190142927	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x1af406…
08-12 14:33:55	will nininho vaz maia attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000540828	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x6a35b1…
08-12 14:33:03	fcc revokes a major network broadcast license by december 31 2026 20260717235625543	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x62132d…
08-12 14:32:54	Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x81170e…
08-12 14:32:46	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026 20260810145737301	No	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0xd9d00e…
08-12 14:32:40	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x2f7de9…
08-12 14:32:31	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?	No	SELL	50	9¢	$5	0x11e541…
08-12 14:32:24	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	No	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x3cebf6…
08-12 14:32:16	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1480 by december 31 2026 20260804194832577	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xaecc20…
08-12 14:32:10	Will Gavin Newsom win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x6b278a…
08-12 14:32:04	Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the #2 song for 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	12¢	$6	0x662ddf…
08-12 14:31:36	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	No	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0xf630e7…
08-12 14:31:27	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 TOUR Championship?	Yes	SELL	30	20¢	$6	0xacb44c…
08-12 14:30:36	will databricks valuation hit high 190b by december 31	No	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x7dec57…
08-12 14:30:28	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 55 or higher 20260723190836286	No	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0xe9d284…
08-12 14:30:21	Will Jane Poole-Wilson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xe89c9c…
08-12 14:29:42	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	No	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xfd4632…
08-12 14:29:34	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0xdf9d3d…
08-12 14:29:27	will clavicular wear a yarmulke in 2026 20260710172344899	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0x608e17…
08-12 14:29:18	Will Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x7d9932…
08-12 14:29:09	Will Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa?	No	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0xdb71a7…
08-12 14:28:55	Will the Democratic Party win the OH-15 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x34795f…
08-12 14:28:48	Will Team Vitality Win VCT EMEA Stage 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0xcf7faa…
08-12 14:28:37	Will Ulises Mejía Haro win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?	No	SELL	50	52¢	$26	0xea18b9…
08-12 14:27:57	will kai or speed be eliminated by lava 20260811134127692	Yes	SELL	50	43¢	$21	0x41a751…
08-12 14:27:46	Will A'ja Wilson have the highest three point percentage in the WNBA 2026 regular season?	No	SELL	50	33¢	$17	0x129835…
08-12 14:27:36	Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	50	68¢	$34	0x844c89…
08-12 14:27:27	Will Werner Graf be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	No	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0xd47548…
08-12 14:26:40	will the highest score achieved by a google gemini model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 50 or higher 20260723192605546	Yes	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0xacafc4…
08-12 14:25:10	will kai or speed be eliminated by suffocation 20260807142948642	No	SELL	50	81¢	$41	0xa9ef7e…
08-12 14:24:58	Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x80acad…
08-12 14:24:49	Will Alexis Vega (Toluca) record the most assists in the 2027 Liga MX Clausura?	No	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x0fd9c7…
08-12 14:24:39	Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?	No	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x918e64…
08-12 14:24:16	Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?	Yes	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0x35d8d5…
08-12 14:24:07	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x6a378a…
08-12 14:23:58	Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xf4c894…
08-12 14:23:45	Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?	No	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x1e438c…
08-12 14:23:07	Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	50	81¢	$41	0x66b284…
08-12 14:03:43	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x6969c7…
08-12 14:03:12	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x98c5cd…
08-12 14:01:42	wti closes above 82 on august 12 2026	No	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x63b1c7…
08-12 13:48:31	Will Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x389b20…
08-12 13:18:18	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	43	12¢	$5	0x0d05f8…
08-12 13:14:19	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x3178a7…
08-12 13:04:39	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x70542e…
08-12 12:59:58	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xb033f2…
08-12 12:50:19	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	43	9¢	$4	0x7d1d11…
08-12 12:41:51	Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	Yes	SELL	42	13¢	$5	0xc5ed28…