Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
+$40
Hit rate
Resolved
0
Trades
1,056
lifetime
Volume
$32.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$31
Open exposure
$855
10 positions
First seen
2026-01-14
last 06-30 16:18
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Politics
39%
Other
33%
Tech
27%
Crypto
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
52 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +698 $656 100¢ $696 +$40 06-30 20:00
Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +50 $46 100¢ $50 +$3 06-17 04:07
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? No +32 $27 97¢ $31 +$4 06-22 10:33
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +20 $15 99¢ $20 +$5 06-24 01:59
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +20 $16 99¢ $20 +$3 06-24 10:07
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No -13 $-13 100¢ $-13 $-0 06-21 17:53
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +20 $14 62¢ $12 $-1 06-16 08:52
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +12 $12 97¢ $12 $-0 06-30 16:08
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Yes +32 $16 $1 $-15 06-21 20:34
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes -7 $-1 $-0 +$0 06-24 12:45