Vibrant-Minority-Lace — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9.30K

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

13.0%

Resolved

1,260

Trades

8,023

lifetime

Volume

$209.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 10-27 14:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 156 days

Categories

Other

70% 15% -$6,799

Politics

20% 4% -$1,556

Sports

6% 8% -$665

Tech

3% 4% -$105

Crypto

1% 8% -$158

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 157 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+50	$6	4¢	$2	-$4	09-29 18:43
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	+3	$0	48¢	$1	+$1	09-20 14:09
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+4	$1	12¢	$0	-$1	09-17 11:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	7	$757	1,098	0	+1,098	KT Rolster	-$606	05-17 07:11
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	3	$695	1,139	0	+1,139	Gentle Mates	-$695	05-11 04:50
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	4	$657	1,398	0	+1,398	MOUZ	-$657	05-12 03:46
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	4	$631	1,697	0	+1,697	9z	+$635	05-11 10:50
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	1	$600	789	0	+789	T1	+$189	05-25 04:50
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	5	$488	970	0	+970	Knicks	+$12	05-23 14:26
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	3	$473	1,226	0	+1,226	Nongshim Red Force	-$303	05-18 05:15
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	10	$452	400	400	+0	open	—	08-07 07:24
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	8	$438	872	0	+872	Hanwha Life Esports	+$1	05-25 11:31
will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495	20	$435	500	500	+0	open	—	10-23 18:00
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	10	$398	400	400	+0	open	—	10-26 13:58
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	10	$396	400	400	+0	Yes	-$26	07-25 08:09
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	4	$390	1,257	0	+1,257	Hanwha Life Esports	-$390	05-15 07:51
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	9	$378	308	308	+0	open	—	08-08 13:26
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	5	$376	482	0	+482	Team Falcons	+$97	05-14 12:36
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	9	$375	400	400	+0	open	—	10-24 10:53
Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?	10	$372	380	380	+0	open	—	08-01 10:58
will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 65 or higher 20260723190836288	7	$350	300	300	+0	open	—	08-12 10:46
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	6	$344	300	300	+0	Yes	-$18	07-24 16:59
will g2 make finals at msi 2026 20260622172025730	10	$343	200	200	+0	No	-$3	07-02 01:39
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?	5	$339	200	200	+0	open	—	07-31 01:58
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	7	$338	200	200	+0	No	-$6	07-20 20:18
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30?	13	$338	300	300	+0	Yes	-$22	08-18 06:47
Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	13	$332	360	360	+0	open	—	10-07 11:43
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	12	$331	637	0	+637	PARIVISION	-$206	05-21 12:12
will relay launch a token by december 31 2026	4	$329	200	200	+0	open	—	07-03 15:26
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	3	$324	435	0	+435	Ninjas in Pyjamas	+$106	05-16 09:14
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?	8	$323	677	0	+677	No	-$323	05-13 02:58
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	6	$319	300	299	+1	No	-$19	08-11 06:01
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flare?	4	$318	200	200	+0	No	-$10	10-04 05:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 15:18:32	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-01 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x0b02c7…
10-27 15:18:18	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-01 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x4228da…
10-27 15:01:44	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-08 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	80	11¢	$9	0xaa5c34…
10-27 14:52:54	Will the Yokohama DeNA BayStars win the 2026 Japan Series?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0xa17644…
10-27 14:52:29	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x8589fe…
10-27 14:52:20	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-02 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0x4c662b…
10-27 14:52:17	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$1	0xe06ea2…
10-27 14:52:05	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	No	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0xb03b94…
10-27 14:52:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	24	9¢	$2	0xfbff90…
10-27 14:51:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xbd0b56…
10-27 14:51:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	BUY	39	16¢	$6	0x43f669…
10-27 14:51:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x18c7bb…
10-27 14:51:44	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-08 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xbcdd6b…
10-27 14:51:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	24	9¢	$2	0x05d454…
10-27 14:51:30	Will "Agapito" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0x3681ba…
10-27 14:51:21	Will Olivia Colman be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x28e532…
10-27 14:50:11	Brie Larson as Captain Marvel?	Yes	SELL	52	49¢	$25	0xe1cb2e…
10-27 14:50:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-07 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	50	64¢	$32	0x020c70…
10-27 14:49:56	Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?	No	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x967f07…
10-27 14:49:36	Will "All of a Sudden" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	97	54¢	$53	0x01041b…
10-27 14:49:30	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 29?	No	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0xe15142…
10-27 14:40:21	Will the Big Ten conference win the 2026-27 College Football Playoff National Championship?	Yes	BUY	31	24¢	$7	0x5847ca…
10-27 14:40:21	Will the Big Ten conference win the 2026-27 College Football Playoff National Championship?	Yes	BUY	29	24¢	$7	0x219368…
10-27 14:40:20	Will the Big Ten conference win the 2026-27 College Football Playoff National Championship?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x27d090…
10-27 14:40:20	Will the Big Ten conference win the 2026-27 College Football Playoff National Championship?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x01c453…
10-27 14:30:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-16 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0xbefe6e…
10-27 14:30:15	Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xa9cc30…
10-27 14:29:15	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0x5186d1…
10-27 13:53:14	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x883dd0…
10-27 13:50:32	Will "All of a Sudden" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	97	57¢	$55	0x45a0c8…
10-27 13:49:36	Will Dune: Part Three win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x242778…
10-27 13:44:21	Will Derrick Henry finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns?	Yes	SELL	18	28¢	$5	0x86e1ff…
10-27 13:26:57	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-04 House election by 45% or more?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x212357…
10-27 13:26:56	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-04 House election by 45% or more?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x17465d…
10-27 12:52:51	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x88fab7…
10-27 12:47:38	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Montana Senate election by 18%-21%?	Yes	SELL	29	7¢	$2	0x23bdd7…
10-27 12:47:23	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Montana Senate election by 18%-21%?	Yes	BUY	29	8¢	$2	0x27e7d3…
10-27 11:59:14	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Durango Congress election?	Yes	SELL	60	54¢	$32	0xa0cb8c…
10-27 11:53:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama Senate election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	19	25¢	$5	0xc024f2…
10-27 11:52:50	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama Senate election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x17f642…
10-27 11:52:50	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama Senate election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x148565…
10-27 11:52:41	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama Senate election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xc0f371…
10-27 11:52:11	Will Caio Borralho fight Gregory Rodrigues next?	Yes	SELL	19	12¢	$2	0xd87c27…
10-27 11:51:15	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama Senate election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	13	26¢	$3	0x75b521…
10-27 11:35:30	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Durango Congress election?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x0cf80d…
10-27 11:32:03	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 29?	No	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x9c60dc…
10-27 10:56:50	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-07 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x96fe14…
10-27 10:56:48	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-07 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0xe9bc11…
10-27 10:56:17	Will Democrats win the Iowa and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x5e2a73…
10-27 10:56:05	Will Democrats win the Iowa and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xadd6df…
10-27 10:04:08	Will "The Dreamed Adventure" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0x368365…
10-27 10:02:02	Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x02c3a4…
10-27 10:01:41	Will "The Dreamed Adventure" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x8da164…
10-27 09:57:51	Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks per game in 2026-27?	No	SELL	15	28¢	$4	0x64aa74…
10-27 09:55:38	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	No	SELL	23	28¢	$6	0x943dd0…
10-27 09:55:26	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	No	BUY	23	29¢	$7	0x3336f3…
10-27 09:37:57	Will Republicans win Latino men in the midterms?	No	SELL	60	86¢	$51	0x23f8dc…
10-27 09:37:39	Will Republicans win Latino men in the midterms?	No	BUY	60	86¢	$51	0x37e7de…
10-27 09:21:12	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 RI-01 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	BUY	19	9¢	$2	0x66305a…
10-27 09:21:12	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 RI-01 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x5a60e0…
10-27 09:16:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-05 House election by 55%-60%?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xa821bf…
10-27 08:14:00	Will Yandy Díaz lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in home runs?	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x792995…
10-27 08:13:48	Will Yandy Díaz lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in home runs?	Yes	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xe06942…
10-27 08:05:09	Will Puka Nacua finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receptions?	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x5a60d7…
10-27 07:42:39	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-02 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	26	18¢	$5	0xcdf954…
10-27 07:42:39	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-02 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	24	18¢	$4	0x8fdb47…
10-27 07:42:39	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-02 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x5ee355…
10-27 07:42:39	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-02 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0x46ffe9…
10-27 06:02:50	Will Democrats win older women in the midterms?	No	SELL	6	11¢	$1	0xe7d7a2…
10-27 06:02:41	Will Democrats win older women in the midterms?	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xbb30fd…
10-27 06:02:32	Will Democrats win older women in the midterms?	No	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xe59428…
10-27 06:02:27	Will Democrats win older women in the midterms?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x1cd1ea…
10-27 05:45:51	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.50T and $2.75T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x73ac6f…
10-27 05:08:23	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	SELL	93	16¢	$15	0x60c886…
10-27 04:25:15	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0xd2fe50…
10-27 03:46:48	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Durango Congress election?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x59d777…
10-27 03:36:51	Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x9fab9d…
10-27 03:28:26	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?	No	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x399225…
10-27 02:13:54	Will the longest game of the 2026 MLB Postseason last 11+ innings?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xb221d4…
10-27 01:49:39	Will Jonathan Aranda lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in hits?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xb042e9…
10-27 01:49:39	Will Jonathan Aranda lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in hits?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x561b83…
10-27 01:20:18	Will Keith Riel win the 2026 Peterborough mayoral election?	No	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0xd0f6df…
10-27 00:37:15	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x8bca4e…
10-27 00:37:02	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?	No	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x59cf3b…
10-27 00:26:48	Will Together win 7-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	60	80¢	$48	0x4448d6…
10-27 00:25:02	Will Together win 7-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0x3a857e…
10-27 00:10:17	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WV-02 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	27	22¢	$6	0x75bf8f…
10-27 00:10:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WV-02 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0x5c267d…
10-27 00:10:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WV-02 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x1d6e4b…
10-26 23:48:03	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xf2c9e2…
10-26 23:48:03	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x3bf1b6…
10-26 23:48:03	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0x01f20e…
10-26 23:45:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	SELL	19	16¢	$3	0x61674e…
10-26 23:45:32	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	BUY	19	17¢	$3	0x3f4928…
10-26 23:01:06	Will Collins's 2026 Word of the Year contain "rage"?	Yes	SELL	26	8¢	$2	0x182e12…
10-26 22:52:35	Will Colman Domingo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0xac959d…
10-26 22:52:24	Will Colman Domingo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xdf0087…
10-26 22:52:24	Will Colman Domingo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x99a1b1…
10-26 22:25:50	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?	Yes	SELL	30	20¢	$6	0xc402bc…
10-26 22:25:38	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x8f8f3e…