Cylindrical-Ale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8.87K

Unrealized P&L

-$3.42K

Hit rate

79.6%

Resolved

201

Trades

5,380

lifetime

Volume

$149.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

$3.68K

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 21:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

62% 66% +$7,419

Tech

28% 42% +$1,357

Politics

10% 50% +$93

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 62 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+4,721	$2,601	42¢	$2.0K	-$642	10-28 17:07
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	No	+504	$474	99¢	$497	+$23	09-21 19:28
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+980	$15	50¢	$485	+$470	10-28 17:08
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+4,687	$246	6¢	$260	+$14	10-20 18:14
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+669	$354	29¢	$194	-$160	10-01 01:43
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+7,018	$3,228	2¢	$137	-$3,091	10-27 20:27
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+7,962	$154	1¢	$52	-$102	10-01 01:39
will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by december 31 547	No	+45	$27	90¢	$40	+$13	06-18 15:35
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+39	$5	97¢	$38	+$32	10-27 15:50
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+31	$2	67¢	$21	+$19	09-18 17:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	196	$10.2K	8,773	5,195	+3,578	No	+$2,076	06-18 20:38
will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	41	$5.9K	6,359	901	+5,458	Yes	+$1,106	04-17 19:57
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	149	$5.6K	5,352	2,691	+2,662	No	-$1,722	09-11 21:18
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	19	$4.8K	5,082	519	+4,564	No	+$704	01-31 23:22
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	96	$4.7K	3,623	1,534	+2,088	No	+$192	06-26 00:49
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	111	$3.8K	5,770	1,049	+4,721	open	—	10-28 17:07
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	10	$3.7K	3,892	50	+3,842	Yes	+$256	08-07 14:08
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	37	$3.6K	8,553	1,535	+7,018	open	—	10-27 20:27
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	76	$3.4K	3,189	1,062	+2,128	No	+$478	09-17 12:24
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?	68	$3.1K	3,126	2,171	+955	No	+$100	09-11 22:42
will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	56	$3.0K	4,215	95	+4,120	Yes	+$1,267	03-05 18:10
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	47	$2.7K	2,041	1,070	+971	No	+$154	09-24 10:44
will russia enter serhiivka by march 31	30	$2.5K	1,607	1,465	+142	No	+$11	03-30 21:43
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	62	$2.4K	3,705	708	+2,996	Yes	+$1,497	07-19 06:16
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	57	$2.4K	3,250	170	+3,079	open	—	10-28 18:19
will russia capture rodynske by january 31	53	$2.3K	2,127	1,216	+911	No	+$216	01-31 02:23
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	30	$2.3K	2,485	215	+2,270	No	+$392	09-24 06:25
Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?	47	$2.3K	1,793	764	+1,029	Yes	+$90	08-26 07:58
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by january 31 2026 147	27	$2.2K	850	1,635	-785	No	-$40	01-31 17:27
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by march 31 2026 627	63	$2.0K	1,678	658	+1,020	No	+$179	03-29 20:16
will russia enter rizdvianka by february 28	44	$2.0K	1,350	1,002	+348	No	+$173	02-25 13:54
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	28	$1.9K	2,204	298	+1,907	Yes	+$499	08-16 06:10
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?	50	$1.9K	1,645	758	+887	No	+$271	09-11 21:18
will russia capture all of prymorske by january 15 2026	15	$1.9K	0	3,564	-3,564	No	+$13	01-02 21:10
will openai have the best ai model for math on march 31	40	$1.9K	2,761	75	+2,686	Yes	+$939	03-26 03:00
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	139	$1.8K	8,802	1,810	+6,992	No	-$1,009	05-30 15:10
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	35	$1.7K	1,212	1,217	-5	Yes	+$38	02-13 02:55
will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	240	$1.7K	16,499	10,106	+6,394	No	-$800	03-20 00:26
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?	29	$1.5K	806	706	+100	No	+$21	06-17 19:52
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	48	$1.4K	3,592	2,325	+1,267	Yes	+$1,531	04-27 22:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 21:36:14	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x4b7cd0…
10-28 19:28:59	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0xc2a4cc…
10-28 18:29:37	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x5440b3…
10-28 18:29:37	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x0dbddd…
10-28 18:19:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0xe6648d…
10-28 17:23:16	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xcca6a3…
10-28 17:08:07	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0xfadf7e…
10-28 17:07:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x919a28…
10-28 17:07:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xe02221…
10-28 17:07:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	54¢	$17	0xe01de1…
10-28 17:07:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	54¢	$37	0xb46b01…
10-28 15:06:23	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xafd580…
10-28 15:06:23	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0x223bf3…
10-28 08:57:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	82¢	$3	0x044f58…
10-28 05:47:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0xff6a01…
10-28 04:56:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0xdee6f7…
10-28 02:24:05	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x07ac53…
10-27 21:34:33	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xe7d7c5…
10-27 20:27:21	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xce635e…
10-27 20:27:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x7ddcf1…
10-27 19:08:41	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x221e21…
10-27 18:00:35	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0x4c4996…
10-27 17:28:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$8	0xa6c2d4…
10-27 16:23:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x483d5f…
10-27 16:03:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	92¢	$29	0x4e1865…
10-27 15:50:08	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0xc7cd20…
10-27 15:49:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0x6292d5…
10-27 15:49:53	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x9112b5…
10-27 15:49:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x416c69…
10-27 14:59:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	11¢	$4	0x487aa7…
10-27 13:11:26	Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0x5dcdbe…
10-27 12:55:05	Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x6b4ee7…
10-27 12:35:51	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0x592d2a…
10-27 12:19:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0xb8bc44…
10-27 11:03:15	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xbf3008…
10-27 10:50:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xee7752…
10-27 09:53:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x4ff752…
10-27 07:37:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0x60cda1…
10-27 05:45:53	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	BUY	62	91¢	$56	0x02bb40…
10-27 04:56:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xda0b07…
10-27 04:56:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0xb3944b…
10-27 04:51:41	Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	10¢	$11	0x5e7211…
10-27 04:50:47	Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x82cf3f…
10-27 04:49:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,092	77¢	$837	0x8a8aa4…
10-27 04:41:33	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0xf9bc27…
10-27 04:37:59	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf08d3a…
10-27 03:48:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x1c6db9…
10-27 03:42:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xbef141…
10-27 03:42:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	85	9¢	$8	0x6d511e…
10-27 03:21:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x0a080c…
10-27 02:45:09	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0xea33a8…
10-27 02:03:05	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	86¢	$102	0xfa5a97…
10-27 00:42:15	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x064dbf…
10-26 23:56:38	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x9a045e…
10-26 23:18:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0x920a5c…
10-26 22:39:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	11¢	$5	0xbd23db…
10-26 14:56:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	11¢	$6	0x49babf…
10-26 08:15:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x7d010c…
10-26 08:15:53	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x61ebe5…
10-26 06:54:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x3204c8…
10-26 05:18:42	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x7dc3cc…
10-26 05:18:29	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xe91cce…
10-25 20:21:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	11¢	$110	0x89d7f0…
10-25 16:15:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x7f9c47…
10-25 16:06:14	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x63da22…
10-25 16:02:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	51¢	$26	0x6964ea…
10-25 05:19:45	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$4	0x119fe2…
10-25 03:01:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x41cf4d…
10-23 20:49:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	48¢	$48	0x48a762…
10-23 18:15:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	89¢	$17	0xeb9ec7…
10-23 18:15:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x62a225…
10-23 15:56:42	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0x5b56f2…
10-23 15:56:42	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0x52b7d8…
10-23 13:00:45	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe9b213…
10-23 09:54:09	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x13a686…
10-23 09:36:48	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x1a85b7…
10-23 08:50:47	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xe8e21d…
10-23 08:50:47	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	24¢	$0	0x406ff7…
10-23 07:59:09	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x075c39…
10-23 07:34:59	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x5cc687…
10-23 07:34:57	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xd80316…
10-23 07:34:57	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	1¢	$0	0x3b1232…
10-23 07:34:57	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x114263…
10-23 06:37:15	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x30bf0d…
10-23 05:20:02	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xcc4d4c…
10-23 05:13:39	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xbb80fd…
10-23 03:41:35	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x03b7dd…
10-22 23:26:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x4da3ea…
10-22 21:29:30	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0xfbde4e…
10-22 21:29:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0xe5515b…
10-22 21:29:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	46¢	$9	0x3976a3…
10-22 18:15:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	761	82¢	$620	0x5af6d9…
10-22 09:09:08	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$1	0x3e1895…
10-22 09:08:53	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0x5c8778…
10-22 09:08:23	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0xabf4c3…
10-22 03:42:59	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0x69453d…
10-22 02:13:51	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0x29a1f1…
10-21 16:55:12	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x4236c5…
10-21 16:08:38	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x8dd70d…
10-20 18:14:24	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	5¢	$3	0x160838…