Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
+$108
Hit rate
Resolved
0
Trades
2,142
lifetime
Volume
$74.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$35
Open exposure
$4.03K
17 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 07:58
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Other
71%
Politics
15%
Tech
14%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No +2,024 $1,815 100¢ $2.0K +$203 06-26 00:49
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? No -506 $-501 99¢ $-502 $-0 06-17 19:52
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No -500 $-498 100¢ $-499 $-1 06-18 11:57
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No +360 $334 99¢ $356 +$22 06-27 22:08
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No +233 $215 94¢ $219 +$3 06-02 18:51
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? No +132 $118 95¢ $126 +$8 06-13 21:54
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No +113 $96 94¢ $106 +$10 06-21 00:44
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? No -97 $-96 100¢ $-97 $-1 06-05 00:16
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes +134 $41 38¢ $50 +$10 06-19 12:31
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? No +40 $32 82¢ $33 +$1 05-30 03:51
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes -54 $-37 30¢ $-17 +$20 06-09 12:41
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No -2 $-3 100¢ $-2 +$1 06-23 16:23
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes +422 $59 $1 $-59 06-26 06:29
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +195 $98 $1 $-97 06-09 17:21
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +142 $10 $0 $-10 06-08 07:49
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes +30 $0 $0 +$0 06-15 13:53
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +10 $1 $0 $-1 05-29 03:14