Idealistic-Valance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$794

Unrealized P&L

+$1.07K

Hit rate

61.5%

Resolved

869

Trades

4,232

lifetime

Volume

$54.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$2.57K

30 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 10-16 18:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 122 days

Categories

Other

57% 47% +$308

Politics

29% 60% +$1,026

Tech

11% 46% -$475

Sports

2% 58% +$35

Crypto

1% 53% -$101

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 110 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	+984	$151	80¢	$787	+$636	08-01 22:14
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+594	$88	96¢	$573	+$485	10-02 07:20
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	+257	$81	98¢	$251	+$171	09-30 21:44
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	+187	$67	83¢	$155	+$88	08-11 15:12
Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	+126	$91	88¢	$110	+$20	08-09 19:15
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$81	76¢	$76	-$5	07-24 05:54
will russia announce a new forced mobilization by december 31 2026	Yes	+608	$231	12¢	$70	-$161	08-25 10:09
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	No	+74	$58	86¢	$64	+$5	07-26 11:13
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	+71	$24	82¢	$58	+$35	07-06 05:46
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	No	+73	$33	77¢	$56	+$23	08-24 07:25
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	+54	$29	98¢	$53	+$24	10-02 11:37
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+43	$16	95¢	$41	+$25	09-05 18:13
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	+43	$11	90¢	$39	+$28	07-19 10:34
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	+41	$36	90¢	$37	+$1	06-30 14:08
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	+59	$31	58¢	$34	+$4	10-12 18:08
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+137	$68	22¢	$30	-$38	09-10 19:18
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	No	+21	$11	98¢	$20	+$10	09-30 21:05
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	+53	$42	35¢	$19	-$23	08-14 10:39
will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500	Yes	+64	$31	24¢	$15	-$16	08-15 06:10
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	+15	$13	94¢	$14	+$1	08-01 15:21
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+32	$13	36¢	$12	-$1	07-26 13:41
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+31	$2	34¢	$11	+$8	08-14 00:11
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	+175	$33	4¢	$8	-$26	09-17 19:12
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+65	$10	11¢	$7	-$3	06-05 11:04
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+1,518	$8	0¢	$6	-$2	10-05 02:24
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	+327	$212	2¢	$6	-$206	10-14 18:27
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	+6	$5	82¢	$5	+$0	08-04 12:32
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+13	$10	37¢	$5	-$6	06-07 13:12
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+26	$5	11¢	$3	-$2	09-19 13:21
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+185	$3	2¢	$3	-$1	08-12 07:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	313	$2.2K	2,113	1,694	+420	Yes	+$452	06-17 16:21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	58	$1.7K	2,423	584	+1,840	No	-$6	06-30 12:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	36	$1.7K	1,232	1,232	+0	open	—	07-23 05:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	11	$1.4K	949	767	+183	Yes	+$50	07-08 06:43
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	15	$1.3K	770	671	+99	Yes	+$43	06-20 14:47
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	24	$1.2K	1,353	1,147	+206	No	+$332	07-06 03:56
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	3	$1.2K	1,469	1,469	+0	open	—	09-05 06:07
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	56	$1.2K	771	771	-0	open	—	08-14 15:58
us x china tariff agreement by december 31	22	$1.1K	601	601	-0	Yes	-$7	07-25 09:19
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	6	$929	609	609	+0	open	—	08-14 15:58
will zywoo reach 36 hltv mvp awards by december 31 2026	9	$818	613	413	+200	open	—	09-15 14:49
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	81	$784	989	748	+241	Yes	-$81	06-17 18:34
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	3	$770	465	423	+43	open	—	07-19 10:34
will trump speak to xi jinping in june	6	$675	629	115	+514	No	+$47	06-24 14:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	18	$566	522	138	+384	No	+$13	06-29 11:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	41	$560	302	271	+30	No	+$1	06-06 00:38
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	14	$541	405	249	+156	Yes	+$112	07-27 14:09
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	24	$539	342	342	+0	open	—	07-13 13:53
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	4	$529	316	316	+0	open	—	07-13 13:53
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	11	$527	504	103	+401	Yes	+$79	06-24 01:46
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	7	$517	489	194	+295	No	+$96	06-30 16:57
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	4	$453	263	263	+0	No	-$5	08-04 12:33
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?	4	$407	617	0	+617	Yes	-$407	07-24 12:13
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	9	$397	208	198	+10	No	+$2	06-26 15:47
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	28	$391	459	179	+280	No	-$191	07-13 13:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	22	$381	295	233	+63	Yes	+$15	06-20 14:03
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	5	$378	204	204	+0	open	—	10-14 13:39
Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	2	$359	292	206	+86	open	—	10-12 09:33
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	10	$335	330	25	+306	Yes	-$15	07-12 17:40
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	11	$334	307	307	+0	open	—	08-04 09:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 18:11:51	Will Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Cloud revenue be above $61.5B?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xeea229…
10-16 17:19:02	Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 China revenue mix <22%?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x6c6a4c…
10-16 17:05:04	will openrouter process less than 625t tokens oct 26 to nov 22 2026	No	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0xf1ad37…
10-16 08:57:07	will micron q1 dram revenue be above 46b	No	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0x9f13c4…
10-15 20:38:39	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 1% to 2.5%?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0x3f2bbe…
10-15 18:24:02	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	71¢	$5	0xc7c646…
10-15 18:24:02	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x1d9311…
10-15 18:21:20	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	64¢	$2	0x39505d…
10-15 16:42:32	Will GE Aerospace (GE) Q3 adjusted revenue be above $12.8B?	Yes	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xa96f17…
10-15 14:59:01	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	16¢	$0	0x289d94…
10-15 14:56:08	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	16¢	$0	0xaaeb53…
10-15 14:55:58	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xc107bd…
10-15 10:52:22	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x02dbc5…
10-15 10:39:35	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0x0ab62f…
10-15 02:15:26	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x95aecd…
10-15 01:29:20	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0xf6f3a8…
10-15 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	14	10¢	$1	0xec9eb7…
10-15 00:08:08	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	14	10¢	$1	0x4c47e1…
10-15 00:08:07	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0xe1776a…
10-15 00:08:07	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0x8f43a8…
10-15 00:08:05	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x42906d…
10-14 18:27:27	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0x248986…
10-14 18:26:54	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x7cba6c…
10-14 18:23:46	next mistral small 4pt1 released by december 31 2026	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x9e365e…
10-14 17:45:27	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	11	69¢	$8	0xbde2c4…
10-14 17:25:09	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$2	0x65dfed…
10-14 17:24:03	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 16?	No	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x9ca4c4…
10-14 17:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 15?	No	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x7d8a26…
10-14 16:59:27	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 16?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xab96a2…
10-14 13:44:26	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	SELL	44	94¢	$41	0xe0b13b…
10-14 13:41:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0xf25a82…
10-14 13:41:11	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xb10438…
10-14 13:40:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 14?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xcd83e8…
10-14 13:40:47	Will Meituan be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x058815…
10-14 13:40:36	Will Thinky have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x7d48f3…
10-14 13:40:29	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0x45db6b…
10-14 13:39:27	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	96	96¢	$93	0xdb87f7…
10-14 11:00:07	will claude fable output price be 40 or below in 2026	No	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x491043…
10-14 10:06:02	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on October 15?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x4f67e8…
10-13 13:04:04	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	6¢	$4	0xb19953…
10-13 04:19:12	Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0xc54481…
10-12 20:29:18	Will Meta have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	2¢	$1	0x254ebc…
10-12 18:28:14	Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x47c651…
10-12 18:08:42	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	42	70¢	$30	0x2fcc65…
10-12 18:08:42	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	BUY	59	52¢	$31	0x281e48…
10-12 18:07:06	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0x756558…
10-12 18:05:14	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xed3e83…
10-12 17:59:29	Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0xcaafd6…
10-12 17:57:33	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x329966…
10-12 17:51:39	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	43¢	$11	0x1bc449…
10-12 17:22:39	Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x5f15f6…
10-12 14:19:56	Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x50b5b3…
10-12 13:03:18	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0xeb9543…
10-12 12:47:59	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	SELL	77	15¢	$11	0x8e25de…
10-12 11:58:11	Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0xf75d74…
10-12 11:54:26	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x1b0539…
10-12 11:41:06	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0x396004…
10-12 11:33:47	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	SELL	0	14¢	$0	0x94677c…
10-12 11:33:47	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0x90653e…
10-12 10:33:33	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0x463673…
10-12 10:22:57	Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xccb14d…
10-12 10:22:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0xadf666…
10-12 10:15:54	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	BUY	13	58¢	$7	0xd391e3…
10-12 09:33:26	Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	No	SELL	206	85¢	$175	0x6a17df…
10-12 09:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 14?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x4d726c…
10-11 18:16:24	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on October 13?	No	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x524c5c…
10-10 17:31:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on October 11?	No	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x1c0129…
10-09 23:29:43	Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x3a82e4…
10-09 19:42:34	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	43¢	$6	0xe798fa…
10-09 19:09:38	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	43¢	$0	0x81d299…
10-09 19:03:34	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	43¢	$0	0x892f82…
10-09 18:43:14	Will OpenRouter process between 625T and 675T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Yes	BUY	12	28¢	$3	0xf492f2…
10-09 15:15:55	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0xdc282e…
10-09 11:47:39	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	64¢	$24	0x8ed347…
10-09 11:44:06	Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	75¢	$31	0x0893a6…
10-09 10:52:33	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xffc089…
10-09 08:33:25	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	16¢	$0	0x1abcd4…
10-09 06:47:57	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xe3a390…
10-09 06:47:25	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x5dc50b…
10-09 05:16:56	Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	No	BUY	292	63¢	$184	0xb51aab…
10-09 04:52:24	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	49¢	$79	0x530516…
10-08 23:55:50	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0x9eb280…
10-08 23:05:14	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	49¢	$18	0xeed40b…
10-08 22:12:08	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x69548a…
10-08 22:11:27	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	8	7¢	$1	0xf4e42e…
10-08 22:11:21	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xe03218…
10-08 22:10:42	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	7	7¢	$1	0x7f4580…
10-08 21:56:09	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x8e9364…
10-08 21:47:03	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xcb6d7e…
10-08 21:21:59	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	13	27¢	$4	0xfdfee2…
10-08 21:02:39	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	No	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xe2cd49…
10-08 20:25:32	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	No	BUY	16	54¢	$8	0x3a52b8…
10-08 19:47:53	Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 5% to 19.99%?	Yes	BUY	55	26¢	$14	0xaf0eda…
10-08 19:04:35	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	Yes	BUY	136	54¢	$73	0x778a66…
10-08 19:02:17	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x30c2bd…
10-08 18:55:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 10?	No	BUY	4	58¢	$3	0xb36548…
10-08 18:55:26	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 10?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x8ce757…
10-08 17:40:38	Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	168	60¢	$101	0x678d7b…
10-08 17:05:23	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 10?	No	BUY	6	60¢	$3	0x497874…
10-08 16:51:00	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 10?	No	BUY	11	60¢	$7	0x034d07…