Considerate-Amusement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$933

Unrealized P&L

-$244

Hit rate

66.6%

Resolved

461

Trades

2,406

lifetime

Volume

$374.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$156

Open exposure

$340

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-05 03:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Politics

50% 76% +$2,300

Other

46% 56% -$540

Sports

4% 70% -$808

Pop-Culture

0% 25% -$18

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	-221	-$182	70¢	$-154	+$29	07-19 05:20
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	-50	-$42	92¢	$-46	-$4	09-18 05:47
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	+100	$80	42¢	$42	-$38	04-28 14:31
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No	+32	$7	98¢	$31	+$24	09-04 17:12
Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?	No	+44	$38	66¢	$29	-$9	09-14 07:22
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	-25	-$15	88¢	$-22	-$7	09-06 17:59
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?	Yes	+133	$261	6¢	$9	-$253	05-08 23:34
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	-61	-$20	11¢	$-6	+$14	09-06 17:59
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	56¢	$0	+$0	07-13 18:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	35	$32.4K	17,931	17,790	+141	No	+$1,826	01-26 20:31
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	130	$25.3K	16,552	15,144	+1,407	No	+$283	02-09 22:01
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	53	$17.5K	26,780	23,957	+2,822	No	-$874	01-30 23:20
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	50	$10.4K	11,084	11,210	-126	Yes	+$1	02-07 22:25
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	2	$10.0K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	-$5	01-02 21:41
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	49	$9.9K	11,263	11,663	-400	Yes	-$186	02-12 14:59
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	55	$9.8K	5,526	6,412	-886	No	-$375	02-07 22:29
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	41	$9.7K	5,759	5,742	+17	No	+$55	02-06 23:50
will chase infiniti be nominated for best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	15	$7.8K	3,811	4,060	-250	No	+$58	01-22 13:37
will the us next strike iran on january 26 2026 et 241	11	$7.8K	5,372	6,348	-976	No	-$9	01-28 00:05
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	28	$7.7K	3,377	4,757	-1,380	Yes	+$364	02-01 10:04
will the us next strike iran on january 25 2026 et 395	3	$7.2K	4,269	3,413	+856	No	+$51	01-26 09:56
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	34	$6.9K	8,183	4,808	+3,375	Yes	+$1,627	02-08 01:05
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	8	$5.0K	3,062	2,000	+1,062	No	+$24	02-01 11:30
will the us next strike iran on january 27 2026 et 332	7	$4.6K	2,317	2,317	+0	No	+$11	01-28 00:22
will israel nuke iran by january 31	2	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$4	01-29 12:48
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	16	$3.3K	2,150	2,150	+0	No	+$28	02-04 18:39
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	10	$3.2K	1,611	1,611	+0	No	+$38	02-10 19:22
will the us next strike iran on january 28 2026 et 699	13	$2.9K	2,582	2,582	+0	No	+$10	01-29 00:18
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?	16	$2.8K	2,691	488	+2,203	No	+$320	03-11 20:00
will novocaine be nominated for best picture at the 98th academy awards	3	$2.5K	2,521	18	+2,503	No	+$5	01-22 14:07
Madrid Open: Talia Gibson vs Emiliana Arango	17	$2.5K	2,547	2,547	+0	Emiliana Arango	+$25	04-22 08:40
Will the Republican Party win the TN-01 House seat?	3	$2.3K	1,216	1,216	+0	open	—	06-02 16:40
Will the Republican Party win the MI-09 House seat?	2	$2.2K	1,221	1,221	+0	open	—	07-03 18:19
Will the Republican Party win the GA-08 House seat?	2	$2.2K	1,221	1,221	+0	open	—	05-31 15:05
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	6	$2.2K	1,338	1,338	+0	open	—	06-03 21:15
mls atl ner 2026 04 22 atl	2	$2.2K	2,449	2,449	+0	No	-$18	04-22 09:42
2026 us senate election republican odds over 80 by march 31	7	$2.1K	1,109	1,200	-91	No	+$35	03-21 15:22
will jodie comer be nominated for best actress at the 98th academy awards	5	$2.0K	2,032	17	+2,015	No	+$4	01-22 14:10
odds of khamenei out by february over 50 in january 172	9	$2.0K	1,048	1,048	+0	No	+$18	01-29 16:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 03:17:10	Greek snap election scheduled in 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	12¢	$16	0x427afe…
10-04 09:13:32	Will Daniele Monroe-Moreno win the 2026 North Las Vegas mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x1f7948…
09-25 05:42:12	Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	No	SELL	234	96¢	$226	0x1adfc1…
09-24 09:00:50	Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	No	BUY	234	96¢	$225	0xd6939f…
09-18 05:47:01	Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x1ac8df…
09-14 07:22:10	Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?	No	BUY	44	87¢	$38	0xc4e027…
09-06 17:59:49	Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	25	60¢	$15	0xf40110…
09-06 17:59:10	Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	61	33¢	$20	0x926b4e…
09-06 16:44:42	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	SELL	124	91¢	$113	0x506a8b…
09-06 16:44:33	Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$29	0xbeb7c6…
09-04 17:12:16	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No	SELL	12	90¢	$10	0xc9dbf7…
09-04 15:25:00	Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	609	0¢	$1	0x851ee6…
09-04 15:24:52	Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	354	0¢	$1	0x2a7e83…
09-04 15:24:45	Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	609	0¢	$1	0xc12eef…
09-04 15:24:40	Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	609	0¢	$1	0x852070…
09-04 15:24:34	Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	416	0¢	$1	0xdcee85…
09-04 15:24:25	Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	609	1¢	$7	0x071989…
08-17 10:16:15	Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	No	BUY	71	72¢	$51	0x55feea…
08-17 06:32:49	Will the Republican Party win the TN-08 House seat?	Yes	SELL	55	93¢	$51	0x626cdd…
08-09 13:20:25	Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	275	87¢	$239	0xbe8be7…
08-06 18:24:15	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x5443d8…
08-06 09:29:42	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0xf576bc…
08-06 09:28:41	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	SELL	99	84¢	$83	0x607e66…
08-06 09:28:14	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No	SELL	15	53¢	$8	0x659ac0…
08-05 08:52:11	Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	275	89¢	$245	0xe35df1…
07-30 20:45:41	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	230	84¢	$193	0x2d1a46…
07-27 06:58:57	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	SELL	231	81¢	$187	0x22f146…
07-27 03:02:40	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	SELL	159	98¢	$155	0x6a65de…
07-26 20:23:00	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x4faa07…
07-26 20:23:00	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x376628…
07-26 19:24:43	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	SELL	33	98¢	$33	0xefcdac…
07-26 19:19:34	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	SELL	196	98¢	$192	0x3589cc…
07-25 16:08:45	Will the Democratic Party win the OH-06 House seat?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x634819…
07-25 16:07:55	Will the Democratic Party win the TN-08 House seat?	No	SELL	150	94¢	$141	0x83f5aa…
07-21 11:18:43	Will the Democratic Party win the TN-08 House seat?	No	SELL	396	93¢	$368	0x37c678…
07-21 10:50:43	Will the Democratic Party win the TN-08 House seat?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x184e49…
07-21 10:50:34	Will the Democratic Party win the TN-08 House seat?	No	SELL	22	93¢	$20	0xb51054…
07-21 10:50:33	Will the Democratic Party win the TN-08 House seat?	No	SELL	21	93¢	$20	0x1f0d2a…
07-21 10:50:30	Will the Democratic Party win the TN-08 House seat?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x34d14d…
07-19 05:20:34	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	40	82¢	$32	0x558d32…
07-18 13:17:24	Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	BUY	147	0¢	$1	0xe13778…
07-15 06:20:47	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	152	82¢	$125	0x82a123…
07-13 18:20:40	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	73¢	$13	0xd6939a…
07-12 22:11:49	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	71¢	$12	0x569bfd…
07-12 21:43:44	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	231	89¢	$206	0xe7af8c…
07-12 16:24:01	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x10c395…
07-12 16:22:13	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	122	55¢	$67	0xfafe21…
07-10 09:21:01	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	247	90¢	$222	0xb48bb1…
07-08 12:23:10	Will John Fetterman announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	291	89¢	$259	0x3ec53d…
07-03 18:19:52	Will the Republican Party win the MI-09 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1,221	93¢	$1,135	0xc1841f…
07-02 16:29:32	Will the Republican Party win the OH-06 House seat?	No	BUY	355	7¢	$25	0x79754b…
07-02 15:10:32	Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0xc06cdd…
07-02 15:03:50	Will Matt Gaetz announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	4	92¢	$3	0xfb9e34…
06-29 17:41:10	Will the Republican Party win the OH-06 House seat?	No	BUY	125	7¢	$9	0xf60ae2…
06-26 08:41:53	Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration by June 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xf24c68…
06-26 07:31:17	Will the Democratic Party win the LA-01 House seat?	No	BUY	71	94¢	$67	0x8bc13d…
06-25 15:39:31	Will the Republican Party win the LA-01 House seat?	No	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x6b8060…
06-25 12:56:02	Will the Republican Party win the OH-06 House seat?	No	BUY	32	7¢	$2	0x4443fc…
06-25 12:55:40	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	SELL	41	95¢	$39	0x062080…
06-25 08:25:49	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No	SELL	46	85¢	$39	0x5e4b08…
06-25 08:25:25	Will the Democratic Party win the LA-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x87f3ec…
06-24 20:05:22	Will the Republican Party win the OH-06 House seat?	No	BUY	36	7¢	$3	0x5db91d…
06-24 08:15:05	Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Yes	SELL	78	69¢	$54	0xb5fa4a…
06-23 06:59:38	Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Yes	BUY	78	87¢	$68	0xfc3bee…
06-22 02:50:14	Will the Democratic Party win the LA-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xc9a77f…
06-18 07:24:04	Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration by June 30?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xc79cd1…
06-18 00:18:31	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x18a471…
06-17 17:27:11	Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	19	86¢	$17	0xd721cb…
06-17 17:27:08	Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	269	86¢	$231	0xf02b78…
06-17 16:26:02	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xfeadff…
06-17 07:29:14	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	86¢	$30	0x0c9105…
06-17 06:27:49	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xd86847…
06-17 06:24:38	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	141	86¢	$121	0xb082ed…
06-12 10:20:03	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	Yes	SELL	17	13¢	$2	0xeb2243…
06-11 21:32:54	Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	340	91¢	$309	0x2e9c77…
06-11 05:17:15	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x104598…
06-06 23:48:22	Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	60	90¢	$54	0x5f31c2…
06-06 15:45:18	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xcde8df…
06-06 15:44:10	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	166	84¢	$140	0x703bd2…
06-06 03:12:48	Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	288	85¢	$245	0xe51eee…
06-05 21:50:24	Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x62a62b…
06-05 02:41:51	Will Matt Gaetz announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	4	89¢	$3	0x5f8e6e…
06-03 21:15:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	661	84¢	$555	0xcbaad2…
06-03 20:47:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	661	84¢	$555	0xef2b81…
06-02 16:40:37	Will the Republican Party win the TN-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1,216	93¢	$1,131	0xc6bbbd…
06-01 22:40:14	Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x53bfc9…
06-01 11:32:48	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	32	84¢	$27	0x28a5ed…
06-01 09:11:59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	120	97¢	$116	0x1357f2…
06-01 08:58:03	Will Tyreek Hill play for the Buffalo Bills next?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x1ab2fb…
06-01 08:28:23	Will Kevin Hern be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?	Yes	SELL	130	98¢	$128	0xc15ac7…
05-31 15:05:16	Will the Republican Party win the GA-08 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1,221	92¢	$1,123	0x44be0b…
05-28 13:11:47	Will José Soriano lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	SELL	132	3¢	$4	0xf6c271…
05-27 14:45:08	Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x382442…
05-27 14:06:56	Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x8e6f79…
05-25 06:06:01	Will John Fetterman announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x479ee1…
05-22 09:08:41	Will the Republican Party win the AL-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	844	92¢	$777	0x9c5799…
05-15 00:24:18	Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	644	93¢	$599	0x366972…
05-12 17:43:33	Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	347	36¢	$125	0x08944f…
05-11 17:04:27	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	SELL	1,200	55¢	$660	0x295a8f…
05-11 16:41:14	Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	NRG	SELL	13	29¢	$4	0xd3378c…