Realized P&L
-$1.32K
Unrealized P&L
+$46
Hit rate
65.5%
Resolved
164
Trades
350
lifetime
Volume
$11.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$33
Open exposure
$777
26 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-14 03:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 71 days
Categories
Other
79% 70% -$1,167
Politics
11% 76% -$30
Sports
6% 56% -$145
Tech
3% 82% +$24
Crypto
1% 75% -$3
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-14).
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -220 -$208 98¢ $-216 -$8 07-01 02:51
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? No -150 -$147 97¢ $-146 +$1 06-27 19:35
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No -110 -$106 99¢ $-109 -$3 06-27 19:35
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No -100 -$94 96¢ $-96 -$3 07-01 02:52
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No +50 $46 98¢ $49 +$3 07-06 22:38
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +30 $26 94¢ $28 +$2 05-12 23:34
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No -18 -$17 99¢ $-18 -$1 06-27 19:37
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +10 $10 99¢ $10 +$0 05-13 04:26
Anduril IPO before 2027? No +10 $9 98¢ $10 +$1 05-16 03:07
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +10 $9 96¢ $10 +$0 05-13 04:27
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +10 $9 96¢ $10 +$1 05-16 02:38
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No +10 $9 95¢ $9 +$0 05-09 08:16
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +10 $8 94¢ $9 +$1 05-13 04:21
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes -10 -$8 94¢ $-9 -$2 06-27 19:36
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? No -10 -$9 93¢ $-9 $0 06-27 19:50
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? No +10 $8 88¢ $9 +$1 05-09 02:30
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +10 $8 88¢ $9 +$0 05-13 04:26
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +10 $9 67¢ $7 -$3 05-08 16:27
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +10 $5 55¢ $6 +$1 05-13 04:31
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -20 -$4 19¢ $-4 +$0 06-27 19:39
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +5 $3 46¢ $2 -$1 06-25 02:55
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No -100 -$66 2¢ $-2 +$64 05-12 23:00
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -50 -$2 1¢ $-0 +$2 07-07 23:20
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +10 $7 4¢ $0 -$7 05-08 16:32
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? No +10 $6 2¢ $0 -$6 05-09 02:59
Deel IPO before 2027? Yes -19 -$1 0¢ $-0 +$1 06-27 19:38