Realized P&L
+$4.22K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.31K
Hit rate
85.6%
Resolved
15
Trades
8,745
lifetime
Volume
$1.12M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$128
Open exposure
$49.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 11:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
45%
80%
$-600
Politics
38%
0%
$-2,508
Sports
16%
67%
+$7,326
Crypto
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk
• peak 238 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | +11,390 | $10,360 | 94¢ | $10.7K | +$364 | 06-12 12:52 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | +13,202 | $9,277 | 64¢ | $8.5K | $-761 | 06-17 20:18 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | +5,995 | $5,579 | 95¢ | $5.7K | +$101 | 06-16 17:30 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | No | +4,758 | $4,509 | 100¢ | $4.8K | +$244 | 06-23 11:40 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | +4,484 | $4,352 | 100¢ | $4.5K | +$125 | 06-12 18:14 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | -4,375 | $-3,756 | 86¢ | $-3784 | $-28 | 06-14 21:31 | |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | -1,665 | $-1,633 | 97¢ | $-1614 | +$19 | 06-16 02:06 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | +1,757 | $1,538 | 90¢ | $1.6K | +$52 | 06-14 03:56 | |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | No | +1,543 | $1,490 | 100¢ | $1.5K | +$47 | 06-29 22:13 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | +1,000 | $27 | 100¢ | $995 | +$968 | 06-23 10:37 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | +1,060 | $966 | 93¢ | $981 | +$15 | 06-24 15:51 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | +1,000 | $940 | 94¢ | $942 | +$2 | 06-07 17:59 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | No | +714 | $688 | 99¢ | $708 | +$20 | 06-30 11:40 | |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | No | +446 | $423 | 100¢ | $445 | +$21 | 06-06 09:30 | |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | +439 | $388 | 100¢ | $438 | +$50 | 06-11 08:07 | |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? | No | +400 | $387 | 100¢ | $400 | +$13 | 06-06 07:09 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | +400 | $377 | 100¢ | $399 | +$22 | 06-16 06:08 | |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | No | +377 | $342 | 92¢ | $345 | +$3 | 06-18 09:07 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | +320 | $308 | 100¢ | $320 | +$12 | 06-11 12:22 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | +100 | $97 | 100¢ | $100 | +$3 | 06-03 16:05 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | No | +100 | $96 | 100¢ | $100 | +$4 | 06-21 06:28 | |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | No | +99 | $92 | 99¢ | $98 | +$6 | 06-16 06:06 | |
| Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? | No | +101 | $97 | 97¢ | $98 | +$1 | 06-16 05:44 | |
| Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? | No | +50 | $49 | 100¢ | $50 | +$1 | 06-19 20:12 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | +50 | $49 | 100¢ | $50 | +$1 | 06-03 05:47 | |
| Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? | No | +50 | $48 | 100¢ | $50 | +$2 | 06-17 20:47 | |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | No | +43 | $40 | 95¢ | $41 | +$1 | 06-26 11:18 | |
| Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | No | +32 | $31 | 100¢ | $32 | +$1 | 06-19 01:42 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | +30 | $29 | 100¢ | $30 | +$1 | 06-17 17:51 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? | No | +30 | $28 | 98¢ | $29 | +$2 | 06-28 20:23 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 109 | $39.6K | 25,507 | 25,547 | -41 | open | — | 02-28 17:38 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 115 | $27.8K | 20,364 | 20,535 | -171 | open | — | 01-31 19:55 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 78 | $25.4K | 15,428 | 17,689 | -2,260 | open | — | 04-25 14:11 |
| us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498 | 81 | $22.7K | 14,138 | 15,754 | -1,616 | open | — | 01-16 15:16 |
| us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946 | 62 | $21.2K | 9,145 | 13,262 | -4,117 | open | — | 01-11 21:00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 62 | $18.6K | 10,814 | 9,814 | +1,000 | open | — | 06-23 10:37 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 48 | $18.5K | 10,912 | 9,493 | +1,419 | open | — | 06-12 10:26 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747 | 30 | $17.3K | 11,112 | 9,937 | +1,175 | open | — | 03-23 11:10 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 61 | $15.8K | 15,381 | 3,000 | +12,381 | open | — | 05-20 06:32 |
| Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven | 32 | $15.7K | 15,010 | 2,167 | +12,844 | open | — | 05-23 22:00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | 88 | $12.8K | 13,034 | 14,064 | -1,030 | open | — | 02-04 20:54 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 32 | $12.5K | 6,974 | 6,000 | +974 | open | — | 03-21 15:11 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | 63 | $12.0K | 9,373 | 8,818 | +555 | open | — | 04-23 18:22 |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | 61 | $11.3K | 8,526 | 9,316 | -790 | open | — | 01-15 20:19 |
| us iran nuclear deal by march 31 | 39 | $11.1K | 6,283 | 6,283 | +0 | open | — | 03-28 16:25 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | 17 | $10.8K | 11,890 | 0 | +11,890 | open | — | 06-12 12:52 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 54 | $10.7K | 14,411 | 1,000 | +13,411 | open | — | 06-17 20:18 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482 | 7 | $9.6K | 5,200 | 5,200 | +0 | open | — | 06-14 07:44 |
| f1 japanese grand prix winner hamilton 2026 03 29 | 47 | $9.0K | 5,314 | 3,941 | +1,373 | open | — | 03-28 18:45 |
| judy shelton fed chair nomination odds 10 by feb 20 | 10 | $8.8K | 9,019 | 0 | +9,019 | open | — | 02-20 19:45 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | 20 | $8.8K | 5,112 | 5,112 | +0 | open | — | 05-21 06:29 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | 72 | $8.8K | 8,015 | 7,708 | +307 | open | — | 04-23 18:48 |
| Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? | 101 | $8.5K | 10,426 | 429 | +9,998 | No | +$2,215 | 05-09 23:12 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 29 | $8.5K | 8,000 | 9,000 | -1,000 | open | — | 02-28 13:00 |
| ufc ale14 die4 2026 01 31 | 60 | $8.2K | 11,790 | 11,857 | -67 | open | — | 02-01 04:55 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | 10 | $8.0K | 1,000 | 7,339 | -6,339 | open | — | 06-16 02:06 |
| will luke littler win the pdc world darts championship | 85 | $8.0K | 10,114 | 5,999 | +4,115 | open | — | 01-03 17:37 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 25 | $7.9K | 8,200 | 0 | +8,200 | open | — | 03-03 17:00 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | 36 | $7.8K | 8,304 | 0 | +8,304 | open | — | 04-19 19:46 |
| will anyone audibly fart during trumps wef 2026 speech | 39 | $7.7K | 5,609 | 2,500 | +3,109 | open | — | 01-21 08:16 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||