Realized P&L (30d)
-$12.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.61K
Hit rate
90.3%
Resolved (30d)
59
Trades (30d)
1,377
17,062 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$283.6K
$2.70M lifetime
Avg / trade
$158
Open exposure
$60.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-03 05:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 197 days
Categories
Other
58% 93% +$1,307
Politics
23% 75% +$5,468
Sports
18% 75% +$51,659
Crypto
1% 77% +$2,936
Tech
0% 100% +$28
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 334 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +19,615 $14,720 82¢ $16.2K +$1,463 11-02 22:54
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +11,612 $10,497 97¢ $11.2K +$743 10-13 03:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +11,053 $5,768 90¢ $9.9K +$4,125 10-19 12:07
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +15,737 $8,891 34¢ $5.4K -$3,462 11-02 17:30
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? Yes +6,000 $4,457 63¢ $3.8K -$677 10-26 16:01
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No -3,500 -$1,896 82¢ $-2887 -$991 09-24 02:48
New pandemic in 2026? No +1,811 $1,585 98¢ $1.8K +$191 06-14 03:56
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +1,204 $1,141 96¢ $1.2K +$21 11-01 06:49
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +1,675 $1,308 64¢ $1.1K -$228 10-27 18:48
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +1,060 $966 97¢ $1.0K +$65 06-24 15:51
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +1,000 $940 98¢ $981 +$41 06-07 17:59
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +917 $555 96¢ $884 +$329 10-13 07:35
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No -872 -$1,062 89¢ $-776 +$286 10-10 11:11
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes +13,200 $459 6¢ $726 +$267 11-02 20:29
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No +680 $615 97¢ $659 +$44 07-04 05:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +5,600 $646 11¢ $588 -$58 10-31 13:00
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? Yes +4,000 $560 6¢ $240 -$320 09-27 12:11
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes +5,675 $511 2¢ $139 -$372 08-18 07:43
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No +120 $111 97¢ $117 +$6 07-06 06:06
Trump out as President before 2027? No +105 $100 96¢ $101 +$1 10-29 17:16
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No +100 $87 96¢ $96 +$9 07-29 18:17
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -100 -$93 96¢ $-96 -$3 08-21 05:04
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +123 $40 44¢ $54 +$14 10-28 14:18
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +43 $33 88¢ $38 +$5 09-22 10:56
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +25 $23 97¢ $24 +$2 07-23 22:33
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Yes +200 $82 12¢ $24 -$58 09-29 18:01
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No +15 -$180 99¢ $14 +$194 08-17 22:54
will russia invade a nato country by december 31 2026 No +10 $9 97¢ $10 +$0 08-08 00:16
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes +55 $39 15¢ $8 -$31 07-26 15:17
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No +5 $4 96¢ $5 +$0 07-25 01:40