Complete-Novel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$327

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.5%

Resolved

138

Trades

65,500

lifetime

Volume

$171.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 08-05 02:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Politics

56% 50% +$398

Other

43% 41% $-71

Tech

0% 0% $-0

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 460 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	628	$2.9K	36,985	36,458	+527	open	—	03-30 02:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	710	$2.3K	33,689	33,287	+402	open	—	04-27 01:11
netanyahu out by march 31 854	492	$2.0K	32,112	31,987	+125	open	—	03-30 10:47
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	322	$1.9K	24,018	22,803	+1,214	open	—	05-29 21:30
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	551	$1.9K	19,504	20,136	-632	Yes	+$38	04-28 04:57
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	181	$1.7K	12,279	12,847	-568	open	—	05-30 02:11
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	586	$1.7K	34,246	34,262	-15	open	—	05-29 18:15
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	490	$1.7K	30,565	29,979	+586	open	—	04-27 19:53
will the us invade iran by march 31	176	$1.7K	10,411	10,909	-498	open	—	03-30 00:02
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	356	$1.6K	12,924	12,524	+400	open	—	04-27 05:53
Iran leadership change by April 30?	201	$1.6K	13,286	13,409	-123	open	—	04-28 06:17
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	424	$1.5K	15,865	14,371	+1,495	open	—	04-28 03:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	388	$1.5K	23,948	24,783	-835	open	—	04-27 12:30
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	162	$1.4K	11,683	11,995	-312	open	—	03-29 19:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	303	$1.4K	12,349	12,512	-163	open	—	03-04 18:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	197	$1.4K	8,459	8,005	+454	Yes	+$432	05-09 04:32
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	395	$1.4K	12,764	11,713	+1,052	open	—	04-28 03:38
GTA VI released before June 2026?	1,057	$1.3K	37,190	36,667	+523	open	—	05-28 21:59
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	351	$1.3K	17,108	17,088	+21	open	—	03-04 18:31
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	553	$1.3K	28,912	28,860	+52	open	—	03-29 23:16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	153	$1.2K	7,510	7,330	+179	open	—	04-30 12:20
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	522	$1.1K	31,095	30,465	+630	open	—	04-28 10:32
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	469	$1.1K	13,998	13,724	+274	open	—	04-27 15:22
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	219	$1.1K	12,540	12,810	-270	open	—	05-29 14:57
Netanyahu out by April 30?	339	$1.0K	21,897	21,386	+510	open	—	04-27 06:34
Iran leadership change by May 31?	165	$1.0K	11,143	11,145	-2	open	—	05-29 09:23
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	216	$1.0K	13,882	13,874	+8	open	—	05-29 19:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	252	$994	13,385	12,910	+475	open	—	05-13 23:45
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	400	$990	20,019	20,449	-430	open	—	04-27 00:56
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	141	$989	9,718	9,416	+302	open	—	03-30 23:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 02:02:23	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	231	78¢	$180	0x7ec108…
08-05 02:01:30	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x75e653…
06-17 22:10:50	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	No	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0xbe14d6…
06-17 14:59:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x38f587…
06-16 18:07:41	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xcee7a7…
06-16 10:05:21	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	8¢	$15	0x62ace1…
06-14 22:03:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xcd5756…
06-12 19:37:28	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	98	9¢	$9	0xd98287…
06-12 14:37:13	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	49	6¢	$3	0xf7eda4…
06-10 06:31:30	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	SELL	74	2¢	$1	0x44a271…
06-09 06:58:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$3	0xf7e11e…
06-06 01:59:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0xc37fcb…
06-05 16:31:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0x2d9f4b…
06-05 16:26:24	Will Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x8280ff…
06-05 16:13:49	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0x3dc6bc…
06-05 16:09:01	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x54a1a8…
06-05 15:55:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$5	0x8c5226…
06-05 15:54:49	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	SELL	144	4¢	$5	0xa3beef…
06-05 15:53:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xddab41…
06-05 15:18:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x5976df…
06-05 15:17:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xeb1fa3…
06-05 15:16:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x305590…
06-05 14:58:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x9d12e2…
06-05 14:57:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	10¢	$2	0x66ebf7…
06-05 14:28:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0xc49ba4…
06-05 14:10:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x2858a4…
06-05 13:55:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0xb0f490…
06-05 13:54:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0xd8e0cc…
06-05 13:29:28	graham platner drops out before maine senate dem primary	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x31932e…
06-05 13:12:57	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0xf15fae…
06-05 11:59:36	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	105	1¢	$1	0xedb138…
06-05 10:35:21	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	317	5¢	$16	0x504929…
06-05 10:17:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x27bb1b…
06-05 09:46:42	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x379cc7…
06-05 09:44:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	149	1¢	$1	0x46a38b…
06-05 09:33:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0x231089…
06-05 09:24:39	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0xca3e8f…
06-05 09:23:49	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	187	3¢	$6	0x8284f4…
06-05 09:01:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	10¢	$16	0x5635fc…
06-05 09:00:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	10¢	$16	0xec5587…
06-05 08:44:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	51	1¢	$0	0x4979b9…
06-05 08:41:42	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	4¢	$1	0x7905f4…
06-05 08:40:39	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x5a169a…
06-05 08:40:21	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0x7d5abd…
06-05 08:35:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	23	2¢	$0	0xd11942…
06-05 08:30:55	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	80	6¢	$5	0x857506…
06-05 08:30:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0xf3c8a7…
06-05 08:30:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x4d708e…
06-05 08:30:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x5af48e…
06-05 08:30:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	31	2¢	$1	0xd64c54…
06-05 08:30:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x181cd3…
06-05 08:30:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xc67ab2…
06-05 08:30:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0x3096d5…
06-05 08:30:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	24	2¢	$0	0x0e6d76…
06-05 08:28:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x6b1c1d…
06-05 08:21:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	117	2¢	$3	0xb33175…
06-05 08:21:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x20eea2…
06-05 08:20:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x12f674…
06-05 08:19:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x7997ce…
06-05 08:19:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$1	0xb6decc…
06-05 08:19:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0xe264f2…
06-05 08:19:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x15b00e…
06-05 08:19:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x64d674…
06-05 08:09:51	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0x2c993d…
06-05 07:56:12	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x3c0638…
06-05 07:56:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	28	4¢	$1	0x0cbd41…
06-05 07:56:09	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	35	4¢	$1	0xfdbed8…
06-05 07:54:52	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	128	3¢	$4	0x834e16…
06-05 07:44:19	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$19	0xe9d8c4…
06-05 07:28:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	171	2¢	$3	0xb3a1a9…
06-05 07:27:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xeade33…
06-05 07:27:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0xfdbed5…
06-05 07:27:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xe90c78…
06-05 07:10:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0x2755ae…
06-05 07:02:33	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xa653e1…
06-05 06:44:09	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	12	3¢	$0	0x1bb747…
06-05 06:43:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x9caa89…
06-05 06:42:00	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0xc86d74…
06-05 06:41:00	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	58	3¢	$2	0x81906b…
06-05 06:31:34	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	3¢	$1	0x93fe27…
06-05 06:20:51	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0x8d3495…
06-05 06:16:22	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	144	3¢	$4	0xdac171…
06-05 06:15:18	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x27c4d9…
06-05 06:15:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x08540a…
06-05 06:14:42	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x4c3f34…
06-05 06:14:30	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0xf7a9b7…
06-05 06:12:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$5	0xb53b22…
06-05 06:05:48	European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	BUY	62	1¢	$0	0x435979…
06-05 05:49:18	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xedfc63…
06-05 05:46:48	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0xc935e1…
06-05 05:24:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0x5c0255…
06-05 05:13:13	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0x644b62…
06-05 05:07:54	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0x07b65f…
06-05 05:06:27	jd vance out as vp by june 30	Yes	SELL	17	1¢	$0	0x03e3f4…
06-05 05:00:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x37a6f1…
06-05 05:00:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xe77e38…
06-05 04:59:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xef7b84…
06-05 04:58:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$18	0x8c9b82…
06-05 04:58:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0xd61b18…
06-05 04:56:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0xefee2e…