Realized P&L
+$327
Unrealized P&L
-$19
Hit rate
67.5%
Resolved
138
Trades
65,498
lifetime
Volume
$170.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$152
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-14
last 06-17 22:10
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Politics
56% 50% +$398
Other
43% 41% $-71
Tech
0% 0% $-0
Pop-Culture
0%
Crypto
0%
Sports
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
66 active days in 12wk • peak 1282 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes -470 $-32 $-27 +$5 06-05 03:17
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +200 $20 14¢ $27 +$7 06-14 22:03
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Yes +200 $9 10¢ $21 +$12 06-04 21:50
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes -312 $-20 $-17 +$4 06-04 11:14
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes +200 $14 $16 +$2 06-03 09:48
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes +200 $18 $8 $-10 06-02 14:13
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes +203 $6 $7 +$0 06-03 16:09
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Yes +131 $8 $6 $-2 06-02 15:28
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes +200 $11 $6 $-5 06-04 01:02
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No -34 $-3 10¢ $-3 +$0 05-28 00:03
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes -48 $-0 $-3 $-3 06-02 17:55
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes -200 $-3 $-2 +$2 06-02 21:51
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Yes -388 $-7 $-2 +$5 06-05 03:33
Will Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes -100 $-2 $-1 +$0 06-05 16:26
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes -469 $-43 $-1 +$42 06-17 14:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes +1,018 $26 $1 $-25 06-05 09:44
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes +430 $15 $1 $-14 06-05 03:25
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes +457 $8 $1 $-8 06-05 08:41
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes +326 $5 $0 $-5 06-10 06:31
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes +313 $4 $0 $-4 06-04 03:53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes +201 $20 $0 $-20 06-05 15:18
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes -195 $-2 $-0 +$2 06-02 09:13
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes +118 $1 $0 $-1 06-05 11:59
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes +200 $2 $0 $-2 05-29 18:27
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes -157 $-3 $-0 +$3 06-04 09:15
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes +62 $-0 $0 +$0 06-05 06:05
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes +46 $3 $0 $-3 06-04 02:52
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Yes -19 $-1 $-0 +$1 06-02 09:31
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Yes -100 $-1 $-0 +$1 06-04 13:43
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes +27 $2 $0 $-2 06-05 13:12