Realized P&L
+$327
Unrealized P&L
-$25
Hit rate
67.5%
Resolved
138
Trades
65,491
lifetime
Volume
$170.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$280
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-14
last 06-10 06:31
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Politics
56% 50% +$398
Other
43% 41% $-71
Tech
0% 0% $-0
Pop-Culture
0%
Crypto
0%
Sports
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 1282 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes -459 $-43 11¢ $-48 $-6 06-04 08:56
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes -470 $-32 $-29 +$3 06-05 03:17
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Yes +200 $9 12¢ $24 +$15 06-04 21:50
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes -312 $-20 $-22 $-2 06-04 11:14
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes +200 $17 10¢ $20 +$3 06-05 09:24
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes +457 $8 $20 +$11 06-05 08:41
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes +200 $14 $17 +$3 06-03 09:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes +201 $20 $13 $-7 06-05 15:18
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes +200 $18 $11 $-7 06-02 14:13
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes +1,018 $26 $10 $-16 06-05 09:44
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes +430 $15 $8 $-7 06-05 03:25
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes +203 $6 $7 +$1 06-03 16:09
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes -200 $-3 $-7 $-4 06-04 00:08
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes +200 $11 $7 $-4 06-04 01:02
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes +326 $5 $5 $-1 06-10 06:31
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Yes +131 $8 $5 $-3 06-02 15:28
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Yes -388 $-7 $-4 +$2 06-05 03:33
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No -34 $-3 11¢ $-4 $-0 05-28 00:03
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes -195 $-2 $-3 $-1 06-02 09:13
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes -200 $-3 $-3 +$1 06-02 21:51
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes -48 $-0 $-2 $-2 06-02 17:55
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes +313 $4 $2 $-2 06-04 03:53
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes +46 $3 $2 $-2 06-04 02:52
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Yes -19 $-1 $-1 $-1 06-02 09:31
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes +200 $2 $1 $-0 05-29 18:27
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes +118 $1 $1 +$0 06-05 11:59
Will Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes -100 $-2 $-1 +$0 06-05 16:26
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes -157 $-3 $-1 +$2 06-04 09:15
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes +27 $2 $1 $-1 06-05 13:12
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Yes -100 $-1 $-1 +$0 06-04 13:43