Obedient-Mini — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

44.7%

Resolved

Trades

307

lifetime

Volume

$10.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-19

last 07-18 06:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

58% 50% $-3

Other

23% 0% $-2

Crypto

12% — —

Tech

4% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	Yes		+110	$7	4¢	$4	$-3	07-07 03:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	22	$1.6K	2,020	2,020	+0	open	—	05-14 11:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	16	$865	949	949	+0	open	—	05-07 15:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	14	$783	400	400	+0	open	—	04-07 06:46
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$587	300	300	+0	open	—	04-07 03:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$533	300	300	+0	open	—	04-07 04:16
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	2	$426	230	230	+0	open	—	04-21 08:08
Will Solana reach $160 in April?	2	$397	200	200	+0	open	—	04-13 09:22
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	4	$394	400	400	+0	open	—	04-24 11:19
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	2	$394	200	200	+0	open	—	04-13 13:57
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$358	200	200	+0	open	—	04-07 04:52
elon musk of tweets march 12 march 14 90 114	12	$232	230	301	-70	open	—	03-13 22:11
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$208	200	200	+0	open	—	05-07 13:06
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April?	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-07 08:59
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	4	$196	200	200	+0	Yes	$-3	04-24 11:19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$195	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-05 12:20
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?	2	$194	100	100	+0	open	—	05-14 14:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	4	$193	100	100	+0	open	—	05-14 13:58
will the all india anna dravida munnetra kazhagam admk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	2	$175	100	100	+0	open	—	04-24 12:36
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$160	83	83	+0	open	—	04-13 05:18
donald trump of truth social posts march 20 march 27 100 119	2	$151	95	95	+0	open	—	03-27 16:11
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	2	$141	100	100	+0	open	—	05-25 11:46
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	6	$129	200	200	+0	open	—	03-28 22:54
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$121	129	129	+0	open	—	07-11 23:57
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	13	$113	150	107	+43	open	—	03-13 20:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$104	100	100	+0	open	—	05-07 13:26
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	2	$103	100	100	+0	open	—	05-25 11:38
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	11	$93	1,020	1,020	+0	open	—	05-25 10:30
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 80 99	3	$92	200	200	+0	open	—	03-19 21:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$70	155	155	+0	open	—	05-07 16:05
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 100 119	2	$69	109	109	+0	open	—	03-28 14:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 06:39:49	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 20 2026 20260717132724267	Yes	SELL	9	79¢	$7	0xd7e9e1…
07-18 06:38:49	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717132724265	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x3b0b19…
07-18 06:38:27	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717132724265	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xc011fc…
07-18 06:38:03	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 20 2026 20260717132724267	Yes	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x76099b…
07-18 06:38:01	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 20 2026 20260717132724267	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x947084…
07-18 06:38:01	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 20 2026 20260717132724267	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x158ec5…
07-18 06:33:25	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 18 20260717052446991	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x01ad2c…
07-18 06:32:57	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 18 20260717052446991	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x14b352…
07-18 06:31:57	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 18 20260717052446991	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xf7ac36…
07-18 06:29:01	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x396913…
07-18 06:28:33	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 18 20260717052446991	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x7e73b2…
07-18 06:14:09	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xa87b23…
07-18 06:09:43	philadelphia air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717132206210	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xf8051f…
07-18 06:03:33	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xbc4657…
07-18 06:02:12	chicago air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717130414629	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x7ee4e2…
07-18 05:56:33	chicago air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717130414629	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x76087a…
07-18 05:55:03	philadelphia air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717132206210	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x28bd54…
07-18 05:49:00	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xd48cb5…
07-18 05:36:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xb76cff…
07-18 05:35:06	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x96331c…
07-14 04:32:07	will otto lopez record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249842	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xfb6a56…
07-14 04:25:25	will otto lopez record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249842	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x767da4…
07-11 23:57:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	129	46¢	$59	0xa263dc…
07-09 12:50:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	129	48¢	$62	0xa3a76d…
07-08 13:08:02	will erling haaland score 8 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	93	59¢	$55	0xfd60f1…
07-07 04:14:52	will the announcers say cleat during the switzerland vs colombia fifa world cup match 20260706213736123	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x1aaadb…
07-07 04:14:44	will the announcers say captain 5 times during the switzerland vs colombia fifa world cup match 20260707021728763	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0xa4a17f…
07-07 04:14:20	will the announcers say foul 10 times during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260706213505713	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x526e67…
07-07 04:13:46	will the announcers say foul 10 times during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260706213505713	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x23eb0d…
07-07 04:03:35	will graham platner drop out by july 7	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xb5416d…
07-07 04:01:53	will graham platner drop out by july 7	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xca1e13…
07-07 03:59:46	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	90	7¢	$7	0x7898cf…
07-07 03:53:59	will the announcers say cleat during the switzerland vs colombia fifa world cup match 20260706213736123	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x2bfdc2…
07-07 03:53:47	will the announcers say captain 5 times during the switzerland vs colombia fifa world cup match 20260707021728763	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xffc01a…
06-23 11:21:53	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 31 20260622183223872	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x0b4df6…
06-23 11:20:29	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 31 20260622183223872	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x69fa71…
06-23 11:15:55	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	19	32¢	$6	0x0ff434…
06-23 11:14:56	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x940b5f…
06-23 11:14:56	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x791766…
06-23 11:14:53	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xbfbe9d…
06-23 11:14:53	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x4ca682…
06-23 11:14:52	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x347a97…
06-23 11:14:50	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xfdebc5…
06-23 11:14:49	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xbc2d5e…
06-23 11:14:49	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x7aa7bf…
06-23 11:14:47	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xa95acd…
06-23 11:14:46	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x1bea93…
06-23 11:14:44	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xd6cd49…
06-23 11:14:43	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xd5109a…
06-23 11:14:43	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xd01b8e…
06-23 11:11:29	will mu dip to 1110 by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x93434d…
06-23 11:10:59	will mu dip to 1110 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x7a8770…
06-23 11:10:22	will mu dip to 1110 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x38840e…
06-23 11:07:43	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	15	56¢	$8	0x7c7adb…
06-23 11:07:14	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x36d7b5…
06-23 11:06:52	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	BUY	15	57¢	$9	0x691992…
06-23 11:06:43	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x5762c8…
06-23 11:06:43	will the announcers say nutmeg meg during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729520	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x4d6107…
06-23 11:02:28	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x833b5e…
06-23 11:01:56	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x272b63…
06-23 10:59:46	will the announcers say nutmeg meg during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729520	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xb4fbb1…
06-18 05:56:47	will the announcers say history during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751361	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x1a1ff6…
06-18 05:56:37	will the announcers say record during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456427	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x21f718…
06-18 05:55:59	will the announcers say record during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456427	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xd3c16e…
06-18 05:55:58	will the announcers say messi during the canada vs qatar fifa world cup match 20260616212316353	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x39ef77…
06-18 05:55:47	will the announcers say history during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751361	No	BUY	19	25¢	$5	0x430870…
06-18 05:55:38	will the announcers say champion during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456422	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xe007c2…
06-18 05:55:16	will the announcers say history during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751361	No	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x2c18f9…
06-18 05:55:07	will the announcers say messi during the canada vs qatar fifa world cup match 20260616212316353	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x597533…
06-18 05:52:07	will the announcers say history during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751361	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xf7f699…
06-18 05:51:56	will the announcers say champion during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456422	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xf9a52e…
06-18 05:51:47	will the announcers say history during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751361	No	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x00e0b3…
06-18 05:51:16	will the announcers say history during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751361	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x4e7227…
06-18 05:49:58	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456410	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xf400a2…
06-18 05:49:25	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456410	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x4b794a…
06-18 05:38:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	SELL	263	1¢	$2	0xebf0de…
06-11 10:23:04	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	No	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xffdb0a…
06-11 10:21:43	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xd32b56…
06-11 10:21:31	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	No	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0xfc9ce1…
06-11 10:21:31	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	No	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0x838155…
06-11 10:18:58	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0xe26038…
06-11 10:17:37	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xef6991…
06-11 10:04:03	will hood reach 95 in june 2026	No	SELL	14	41¢	$6	0x560e5f…
06-11 10:02:30	will hood reach 95 in june 2026	No	BUY	14	41¢	$6	0x2a09e9…
06-06 22:22:09	will drake have 3 albums in the billboard 200 top 10 20260602162056895	Yes	BUY	700	1¢	$7	0x69b9ed…
06-06 19:40:57	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	14	89¢	$12	0x94fad1…
06-06 19:40:12	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	852	1¢	$5	0x92155d…
06-06 19:39:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	333	6¢	$20	0x69efa1…
06-03 16:41:10	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	667	1¢	$5	0x3320db…
06-03 16:08:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	263	2¢	$5	0x6cfbde…
06-03 16:04:51	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	667	1¢	$6	0x74abf6…
06-02 09:45:38	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0xb5d230…
06-02 09:40:37	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June?	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0x8cc2be…
06-02 09:39:38	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x8c2c73…
06-02 09:11:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x2bd875…
05-30 11:57:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	11¢	$22	0xe8060d…
05-29 17:48:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa1bf57…
05-29 15:19:42	Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?	No	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0xc1ad66…
05-29 15:16:02	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0xe39a66…
05-29 14:27:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xf3eeb7…