Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215adb…f6254c
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$1.21K
Unrealized P&L
+$4.19K
Hit rate
75.1%
Resolved
41
Trades
31,932
lifetime
Volume
$1.19M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$37
Open exposure
$22.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 11:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 16 days
Categories
Politics
59% 50% +$998
Other
33% 53% +$208
Tech
8% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Sports
0% — —
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 725 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +7,189 $4,597 88¢ $6.4K +$1,766 07-19 09:04
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,173 $1,601 64¢ $2.0K +$414 07-06 13:37
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No +2,004 $1,720 92¢ $1.8K +$114 07-05 00:52
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -4,154 $-2,140 38¢ $-1579 +$561 07-05 19:31
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +1,362 $1,112 93¢ $1.3K +$154 07-19 09:04
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +3,352 $1,852 36¢ $1.2K $-628 07-06 13:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes -1,959 $-1,798 55¢ $-1067 +$731 06-12 09:36
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +972 $450 85¢ $826 +$376 07-08 16:45
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No +832 $545 63¢ $524 $-21 07-06 13:13
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +837 $237 60¢ $506 +$269 07-08 02:41
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes +4,224 $469 12¢ $486 +$16 07-19 09:57
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +1,136 $636 40¢ $449 $-187 07-10 10:05
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -3,104 $-259 12¢ $-385 $-126 07-06 16:01
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +560 $435 68¢ $381 $-54 07-12 11:26
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -546 $-238 68¢ $-369 $-131 06-15 20:35
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +571 $280 62¢ $354 +$75 06-24 06:41
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes +919 $259 37¢ $340 +$81 07-06 15:04
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -1,781 $-718 18¢ $-321 +$397 07-05 11:10
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No -996 $-146 32¢ $-319 $-173 07-12 04:32
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No -349 $-300 88¢ $-305 $-5 07-02 17:42
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes -299 $-284 97¢ $-289 $-5 07-03 23:05
Kash Patel out by December 31? No +469 $169 60¢ $281 +$112 07-11 17:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -268 $-325 99¢ $-264 +$61 06-18 16:50
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes -192 $-133 100¢ $-192 $-59 06-19 01:11
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes -957 $-121 20¢ $-191 $-70 07-05 08:48
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +200 $-221 92¢ $183 +$404 07-02 12:35
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +201 $-27 80¢ $160 +$188 07-18 00:23
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No -157 $-143 91¢ $-142 +$0 06-07 21:12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -148 $-60 82¢ $-121 $-61 06-19 17:31
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -110 $-88 88¢ $-96 $-8 06-08 16:37