Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$891

Hit rate

99.8%

Resolved

Trades

874

lifetime

Volume

$870.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$996

Open exposure

$38.8K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 11-04 06:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

73% 98% +$10,180

Politics

19% 100% +$3,011

Sports

3% 100% +$58

Tech

3% 100% +$29

Crypto

1% 100% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+28,887	$27,640	98¢	$28.4K	+$770	10-11 15:51
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+3,333	$3,230	99¢	$3.3K	+$85	10-14 13:05
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	+3,333	$3,243	98¢	$3.3K	+$20	10-11 18:24
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+2,222	$2,109	98¢	$2.2K	+$59	10-11 08:56
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+1,111	$1,078	99¢	$1.1K	+$21	11-04 06:08
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	+576	$541	88¢	$507	-$34	10-24 13:18
Will the Bank of Korea cut by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	No	+40	$38	100¢	$40	+$2	10-21 15:10
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	+0	$31	97¢	$0	-$31	09-17 10:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	62	$74.0K	37,603	37,603	+0	No	+$1,015	04-22 11:04
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	96	$73.9K	50,097	25,615	+24,482	No	+$562	08-24 16:27
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	5	$68.9K	34,678	34,678	+0	No	+$179	07-15 14:46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	8	$53.1K	55,429	0	+55,429	Yes	+$2,304	06-15 13:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$42.6K	42,808	0	+42,808	Yes	+$257	04-22 11:05
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	3	$33.9K	36,475	0	+36,475	Yes	+$2,577	03-06 04:28
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	1	$29.0K	29,074	0	+29,074	Yes	+$58	02-09 06:04
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	6	$28.8K	29,016	0	+29,016	Yes	+$174	02-06 19:39
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	1	$28.8K	28,797	0	+28,797	Yes	+$29	01-29 01:51
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	8	$28.6K	14,336	14,336	+0	Yes	+$14	11-04 04:27
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$28.5K	28,768	0	+28,768	Yes	+$259	01-27 12:01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	134	$27.6K	28,887	0	+28,887	open	—	10-11 15:51
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1	$25.6K	25,625	0	+25,625	Yes	+$26	02-02 02:35
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	92	$22.9K	12,222	12,222	+0	open	—	09-17 10:18
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$20.2K	21,111	0	+21,111	No	+$950	07-16 16:11
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	11	$19.5K	20,840	0	+20,840	No	+$1,337	09-21 14:59
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	28	$17.8K	18,117	0	+18,117	No	+$302	08-16 09:20
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	8	$13.2K	13,332	0	+13,332	No	+$173	08-13 19:16
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	5	$13.1K	13,341	0	+13,341	Yes	+$234	07-30 15:20
will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	17	$11.6K	5,841	5,840	+0	No	+$34	07-14 17:03
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	32	$11.2K	11,739	0	+11,739	Yes	+$522	07-17 16:17
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	40	$11.2K	11,257	0	+11,257	No	+$89	06-25 19:01
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	5	$11.1K	11,214	0	+11,214	No	+$145	06-23 12:40
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	8	$11.1K	11,111	0	+11,111	No	+$44	08-01 05:39
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	4	$10.9K	11,111	0	+11,111	No	+$178	10-09 20:15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$10.0K	5,073	5,073	+0	No	+$81	04-22 07:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	32	$9.6K	9,753	0	+9,753	Yes	+$137	02-02 10:25
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	4	$9.5K	9,889	0	+9,889	No	+$434	10-31 06:51
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	12	$8.9K	8,888	0	+8,888	No	+$36	06-20 15:31
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	5	$8.8K	8,888	0	+8,888	No	+$44	06-26 15:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 06:08:13	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	635	97¢	$616	0xb2d2fe…
11-04 06:08:03	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	38	97¢	$36	0x3550a1…
11-04 06:08:03	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	83	97¢	$81	0x062e03…
11-04 06:01:46	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0xa90586…
11-04 06:01:39	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	167	97¢	$162	0x041747…
11-04 06:01:36	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0xd11de6…
11-04 06:01:34	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xb80357…
11-04 06:01:22	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	86	97¢	$84	0x262c2a…
11-04 04:27:48	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	14,336	100¢	$14,307	0x2fb6e6…
11-04 04:06:54	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	4,000	100¢	$3,988	0x0740dc…
11-04 04:06:52	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	3,226	100¢	$3,216	0x7d6cbb…
11-04 04:06:51	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	541	100¢	$540	0xf46c3d…
11-04 04:06:10	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	159	100¢	$158	0x26b127…
11-04 04:05:10	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	2,708	100¢	$2,699	0x4f6ac9…
10-31 06:51:09	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	1,383	98¢	$1,351	0x0e1c69…
10-31 06:50:58	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	1,839	98¢	$1,797	0x46059c…
10-31 05:30:37	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,111	99¢	$1,103	0x745176…
10-28 14:26:05	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	59	99¢	$58	0x38d6ec…
10-28 14:08:58	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,980	0xbc7a17…
10-28 14:03:04	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	133	99¢	$131	0x50c22c…
10-28 14:02:02	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	163	99¢	$162	0xe1625d…
10-28 13:54:23	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	247	98¢	$243	0x94d629…
10-28 13:53:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October?	No	SELL	3,333	100¢	$3,326	0x196444…
10-25 15:30:47	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	587	98¢	$575	0x7ffd20…
10-24 13:18:56	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0xb31b84…
10-24 12:49:21	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x198f74…
10-24 12:19:54	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$4	0x873687…
10-24 11:56:11	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0x05d9db…
10-24 11:11:32	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0xf0aa0d…
10-24 10:17:51	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x263997…
10-24 10:17:39	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0xd17e6e…
10-23 12:13:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,128	93¢	$1,049	0x07abb5…
10-23 11:11:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x77d101…
10-21 22:35:21	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,068	96¢	$1,030	0x68e5d9…
10-21 16:33:44	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xa6be40…
10-21 16:33:30	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x7ccc1e…
10-21 16:11:29	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	150	91¢	$136	0xe3e516…
10-21 16:10:56	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x2060a3…
10-21 16:10:20	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x70ab13…
10-21 15:56:18	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xf844c0…
10-21 15:55:30	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	629	91¢	$573	0xaec363…
10-21 15:55:30	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x0938b6…
10-21 15:17:38	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 970m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x03baf8…
10-21 15:16:23	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x6c34f3…
10-21 15:10:39	Will the Bank of Korea cut by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x644298…
10-14 13:05:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,333	97¢	$3,230	0xea71ae…
10-12 13:03:50	Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	BUY	163	100¢	$162	0x4e34f1…
10-11 18:24:46	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	1,889	97¢	$1,838	0xe8fdc6…
10-11 17:59:19	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	1,444	97¢	$1,405	0x081de1…
10-11 15:51:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	199	98¢	$194	0x166bbf…
10-11 08:56:51	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	1,702	95¢	$1,615	0x19babf…
10-10 17:41:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x227278…
10-10 17:40:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x8663e2…
10-10 16:15:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6756de…
10-10 15:55:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x4947ed…
10-10 14:33:33	Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	BUY	764	99¢	$756	0x4651a9…
10-10 13:21:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x61a33f…
10-10 13:21:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x318bbe…
10-10 13:21:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xbd417c…
10-10 13:20:57	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x7ed712…
10-10 13:20:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x41012b…
10-10 13:20:42	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x8a7dea…
10-10 13:20:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xc6d73f…
10-10 13:20:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x553a7a…
10-10 13:20:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x5a486f…
10-10 13:19:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x31a2b7…
10-10 13:19:42	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xe51f01…
10-10 13:19:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xdf0fed…
10-10 13:18:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x0886fa…
10-10 13:18:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xc97e80…
10-10 13:17:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x02b575…
10-10 13:17:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x24e11b…
10-10 13:17:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x2ac169…
10-10 13:12:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xcc73a0…
10-10 13:03:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0x4b45d0…
10-10 12:59:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0x6d9ae5…
10-10 12:46:12	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x5ab35a…
10-10 12:46:03	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xaa99b0…
10-10 12:46:01	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	65	91¢	$59	0x5f084f…
10-10 12:46:01	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0x196bae…
10-10 12:45:58	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0xc9cfe4…
10-10 12:08:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x3e752c…
10-10 12:07:42	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xef3209…
10-10 12:07:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x2db159…
10-10 12:07:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x5c4e58…
10-10 12:07:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x8c4fe2…
10-10 12:07:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xccf8bc…
10-10 12:06:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xffc29e…
10-10 12:06:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xd09624…
10-10 12:06:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xa665c6…
10-10 12:03:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xfbe337…
10-10 12:03:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x1cadb4…
10-10 11:45:42	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	52	98¢	$51	0x000fc5…
10-10 09:48:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5ac025…
10-10 08:31:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	58	98¢	$56	0x495017…
10-10 08:17:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x943800…
10-10 08:15:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7154c3…
10-10 08:10:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0xd8eb6c…
10-10 08:10:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0xfc3fa1…
10-10 08:10:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0xe35fc5…