Realized P&L
+$1.35K
Unrealized P&L
+$234
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved
5
Trades
2,705
lifetime
Volume
$673.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$249
Open exposure
$43.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 22:29
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
49%
100%
+$1,213
Politics
32%
100%
+$127
Crypto
10%
100%
+$10
Tech
8%
—
—
Sports
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk
• peak 55 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? | No | +11,606 | $11,544 | 100¢ | $11.6K | +$50 | 06-04 17:25 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +7,600 | $7,145 | 95¢ | $7.2K | +$41 | 06-06 09:25 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | +4,355 | $3,826 | 88¢ | $3.8K | +$6 | 06-06 22:29 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | +3,050 | $2,983 | 98¢ | $3.0K | +$20 | 06-08 08:47 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | +3,000 | $2,953 | 99¢ | $3.0K | +$24 | 06-02 10:00 | |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | +2,621 | $2,596 | 99¢ | $2.6K | +$2 | 06-09 18:57 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | +1,996 | $1,974 | 100¢ | $2.0K | +$17 | 06-06 09:38 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +1,594 | $1,581 | 100¢ | $1.6K | +$10 | 06-03 09:53 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | +1,500 | $1,483 | 99¢ | $1.5K | $-0 | 06-09 13:47 | |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | +1,100 | $929 | 90¢ | $990 | +$61 | 06-01 08:50 | |
| Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | No | +1,000 | $961 | 97¢ | $971 | +$10 | 06-03 22:18 | |
| Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? | No | +922 | $912 | 99¢ | $915 | +$3 | 06-08 09:42 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | +883 | $825 | 95¢ | $835 | +$10 | 05-30 04:03 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -497 | $-483 | 98¢ | $-487 | $-4 | 06-01 18:44 | |
| Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | +400 | $386 | 98¢ | $393 | +$6 | 06-01 16:04 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | +400 | $391 | 98¢ | $390 | $-1 | 06-09 12:42 | |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | No | -375 | $-362 | 99¢ | $-371 | $-9 | 06-01 12:29 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? | No | +349 | $343 | 99¢ | $347 | +$4 | 06-01 19:11 | |
| Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? | No | +220 | $205 | 99¢ | $217 | +$12 | 06-01 13:32 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027? | No | +255 | $209 | 85¢ | $217 | +$8 | 06-01 18:44 | |
| McDonald's CEO out by June 30? | No | +207 | $204 | 98¢ | $203 | $-1 | 06-08 14:37 | |
| Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +414 | $214 | 47¢ | $195 | $-20 | 06-10 02:38 | |
| Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? | No | +200 | $180 | 94¢ | $187 | +$7 | 06-05 21:44 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | +400 | $192 | 46¢ | $182 | $-10 | 06-07 22:00 | |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | Yes | +300 | $141 | 48¢ | $142 | +$2 | 06-07 10:17 | |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? | No | +512 | $92 | 18¢ | $95 | +$3 | 06-07 09:31 | |
| Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250? | No | +138 | $47 | 42¢ | $58 | +$11 | 06-05 18:03 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | +400 | $72 | 10¢ | $38 | $-34 | 06-03 11:27 | |
| Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 50? | Yes | +40 | $30 | 78¢ | $31 | +$1 | 06-05 16:34 | |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | No | -100 | $-14 | 10¢ | $-10 | +$4 | 05-28 21:03 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will gta 6 cost 100 | 170 | $87.9K | 88,967 | 0 | +88,967 | open | — | 02-22 22:32 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | 54 | $33.6K | 33,632 | 307 | +33,325 | open | — | 05-20 20:44 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 35 | $31.8K | 33,000 | 0 | +33,000 | open | — | 03-04 11:00 |
| will israel nuke iran by january 31 | 13 | $26.9K | 27,000 | 0 | +27,000 | open | — | 01-31 21:49 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 104 | $25.5K | 25,469 | 3,700 | +21,769 | open | — | 04-22 10:32 |
| si hit 150 high jan 2026 | 30 | $22.6K | 22,966 | 0 | +22,966 | open | — | 01-24 21:36 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 29 | $21.3K | 20,000 | 2,000 | +18,000 | No | +$620 | 04-23 02:42 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? | 18 | $18.9K | 19,142 | 0 | +19,142 | open | — | 05-15 11:07 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 6 | $16.7K | 17,559 | 0 | +17,559 | open | — | 01-17 21:58 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 2 | $15.0K | 15,000 | 0 | +15,000 | open | — | 03-04 16:31 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | 16 | $13.0K | 13,071 | 0 | +13,071 | open | — | 04-16 05:12 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 7 | $12.4K | 7,989 | 4,993 | +2,996 | open | — | 03-19 09:44 |
| Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? | 18 | $11.5K | 11,606 | 0 | +11,606 | open | — | 06-04 17:25 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 15 | $9.9K | 5,000 | 5,000 | +0 | open | — | 03-18 14:12 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 43 | $9.4K | 10,000 | 0 | +10,000 | Yes | +$593 | 03-10 14:32 |
| will trump visit china by march 31 | 23 | $9.3K | 9,477 | 0 | +9,477 | open | — | 03-21 10:54 |
| bad bunny video becomes most viewed sb halftime on youtube in 1st month | 29 | $9.3K | 9,409 | 0 | +9,409 | open | — | 03-08 12:00 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | 25 | $7.7K | 7,771 | 0 | +7,771 | open | — | 04-22 14:32 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 8 | $7.1K | 7,600 | 0 | +7,600 | open | — | 06-06 09:25 |
| Will January be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 11 | $7.1K | 7,197 | 0 | +7,197 | open | — | 03-27 12:36 |
| will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026 | 2 | $7.0K | 7,018 | 0 | +7,018 | open | — | 03-27 10:40 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 3 | $6.3K | 6,400 | 0 | +6,400 | open | — | 01-31 21:08 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 8? | 16 | $6.0K | 6,078 | 0 | +6,078 | No | +$63 | 05-04 09:17 |
| will ethereum reach 3600 in january 2026 | 4 | $6.0K | 6,024 | 0 | +6,024 | open | — | 01-31 17:23 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 4 | $5.9K | 6,000 | 0 | +6,000 | open | — | 03-18 10:17 |
| will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282 | 3 | $5.2K | 5,286 | 0 | +5,286 | open | — | 03-28 10:31 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? | 33 | $5.2K | 2,600 | 2,600 | +0 | open | — | 04-23 15:21 |
| us strikes iran by february 3 2026 | 3 | $5.2K | 3,463 | 1,731 | +1,731 | open | — | 02-03 20:38 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 3 | $5.0K | 5,038 | 0 | +5,038 | open | — | 04-23 09:38 |
| will ethereum reach 3000 in february 2026 | 12 | $4.8K | 5,000 | 0 | +5,000 | open | — | 02-19 16:52 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 208 | $1.70M | 28,377 | 06-10 01:34 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 207 | $370.6K | 2,505 | 06-08 23:32 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 194 | $28.3K | 6,232 | 06-09 23:22 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | 182 | $41.5M | 54,307 | 06-10 03:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | 182 | $22.0K | 12,551 | 06-08 20:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2 | 171 | $208.9K | 20,360 | 04-05 15:10 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | 170 | $59.5K | 5,296 | 06-09 13:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xca8f…d963 | 167 | $95.1K | 40,785 | 04-23 16:20 |