Jumpy-Blank — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$83

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

302

lifetime

Volume

$39.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$130

Open exposure

$635

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-21 16:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

55% 100% +$83

Other

44% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+300	$243	81¢	$243	+$0	07-04 07:22
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	+165	$150	92¢	$153	+$2	07-16 18:41
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	-135	$-118	92¢	$-125	$-7	07-21 16:33
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?	No	+106	$91	99¢	$105	+$14	07-04 09:07
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	No	+11	$10	96¢	$10	+$0	07-04 14:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	32	$11.8K	10,042	2,023	+8,019	open	—	03-20 03:00
trump out as president by march 31	13	$3.7K	2,105	1,630	+475	open	—	03-18 01:02
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	6	$1.8K	1,888	0	+1,888	open	—	01-17 15:51
will the liberal democratic party win the most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	5	$1.7K	1,817	0	+1,817	open	—	01-29 02:30
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	19	$1.7K	1,875	0	+1,875	open	—	01-22 03:24
will trump meet with xi jinping in january 2026	6	$1.7K	843	843	+0	open	—	01-16 13:53
Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	2	$1.1K	572	572	+0	open	—	04-05 15:43
will cindy hyde smith be the republican nominee for senate from mississippi	12	$1.1K	1,079	0	+1,079	open	—	03-06 20:00
will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be less than 1pt0	5	$792	778	36	+741	open	—	02-15 10:25
Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election?	13	$718	1,003	16	+987	open	—	03-03 00:05
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	5	$682	300	435	-135	open	—	07-21 16:33
Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	5	$675	702	0	+702	Yes	+$27	04-08 14:00
will trump visit china by march 31	10	$660	370	370	+0	open	—	03-16 01:03
will gina hinojosa win the 2026 texas governor democratic primary election	8	$621	655	0	+655	open	—	02-21 00:08
Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?	8	$611	637	0	+637	open	—	04-06 14:15
will greg abbott win the 2026 texas governor republican primary election	5	$543	574	0	+574	open	—	02-17 17:00
Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?	2	$498	525	0	+525	open	—	04-06 14:16
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$486	502	0	+502	open	—	01-23 15:04
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$471	238	238	+0	open	—	04-17 12:26
Will Mike Rounds be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Dakota?	1	$452	483	0	+483	open	—	04-02 13:32
US strike on Cuba by January 31?	2	$394	400	0	+400	open	—	01-23 15:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$392	400	0	+400	open	—	04-02 16:15
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	7	$351	380	0	+380	Yes	+$29	04-18 06:39
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?	4	$348	370	0	+370	open	—	03-12 15:47
Will Pete Ricketts be the Republican nominee for Senate in Nebraska?	3	$328	340	0	+340	Yes	+$12	04-01 17:39
will michael whatley be the republican nominee for senate in north carolina	4	$321	334	0	+334	open	—	02-21 00:06
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	3	$285	300	0	+300	open	—	03-01 14:30
will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	14	$266	978	16	+962	open	—	03-03 00:05
Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?	1	$253	272	0	+272	open	—	01-07 07:47
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$243	300	0	+300	open	—	07-04 07:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 16:33:31	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	90	92¢	$83	0xf8a39f…
07-21 15:49:39	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x828e4a…
07-21 14:36:55	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	22	92¢	$20	0xce3cfe…
07-21 11:39:04	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	318	92¢	$292	0x6d7cb3…
07-16 18:41:29	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	88	91¢	$80	0x4b62af…
07-15 19:31:41	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xaaaf16…
07-14 19:26:40	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x121763…
07-08 16:40:34	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x745fd6…
07-08 14:03:58	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xebe21c…
07-07 16:43:44	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x72d7e7…
07-04 17:18:41	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x6ef057…
07-04 17:18:13	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	300	94¢	$282	0x0d7c04…
07-04 14:17:20	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x67c93a…
07-04 09:07:52	Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?	No	BUY	25	86¢	$21	0xd27afb…
07-04 09:07:40	Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x1471bd…
07-04 09:07:07	Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?	No	BUY	72	86¢	$62	0x1671d4…
07-04 07:22:34	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	81¢	$243	0x48ff20…
07-03 02:42:43	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x04c2e0…
07-02 03:07:26	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	65	91¢	$59	0x18d9d7…
07-01 16:27:58	will england reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134511	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x734d73…
06-06 16:49:57	Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	No	BUY	155	100¢	$154	0xa7afcc…
06-06 16:46:52	Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	No	BUY	146	99¢	$145	0x9b8297…
04-18 06:39:48	Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xc22b94…
04-18 05:31:58	Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0c62a1…
04-18 05:31:12	Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0x315a20…
04-18 05:29:54	Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x825e54…
04-17 12:26:18	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	238	100¢	$236	0x758c71…
04-17 05:06:00	will the bharatiya janata party bjp win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x74b280…
04-17 05:05:56	will the bharatiya janata party bjp win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0e6a64…
04-17 05:05:54	will the bharatiya janata party bjp win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0xb7edc4…
04-08 14:00:11	Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	Yes	BUY	169	97¢	$165	0xd20a3c…
04-07 15:26:47	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	238	98¢	$234	0xb4481e…
04-07 03:44:57	will t lm be the next president of vietnam	No	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xda363a…
04-06 14:16:21	Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?	Yes	BUY	52	98¢	$51	0xa3a6f0…
04-06 14:15:21	Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	104	99¢	$103	0x940551…
04-05 15:45:03	Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x698d32…
04-05 15:43:57	Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	572	100¢	$570	0xece32c…
04-05 15:27:43	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0xba2d05…
04-02 16:29:47	Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	227	97¢	$220	0x1e98f3…
04-02 16:23:31	Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xe66737…
04-02 16:15:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x75e69c…
04-02 16:13:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xbaab7a…
04-02 13:32:31	Will Mike Rounds be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Dakota?	Yes	BUY	483	94¢	$452	0xa4862c…
04-02 13:27:37	Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	146	96¢	$141	0xf8694e…
04-02 13:24:57	Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	150	96¢	$144	0xbd0433…
04-02 01:19:41	Will Stacy Garrity win the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x4d7f70…
04-01 17:53:45	Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?	Yes	BUY	473	95¢	$447	0x50745f…
04-01 17:50:33	Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xdcb3c2…
04-01 17:49:27	Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x62941b…
04-01 17:48:07	Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	572	94¢	$538	0xde8ede…
04-01 17:42:09	Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	Yes	BUY	136	96¢	$131	0xceb6df…
04-01 17:41:07	Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	80	95¢	$76	0x32bf8d…
04-01 17:40:21	Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	46	94¢	$43	0xb13593…
04-01 17:39:11	Will Pete Ricketts be the Republican nominee for Senate in Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	111	97¢	$108	0x174961…
04-01 17:37:03	Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	49	97¢	$47	0xb72c37…
04-01 17:36:25	Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x72bd94…
04-01 17:36:19	Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xc7f632…
04-01 17:35:13	Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x36203d…
04-01 17:18:45	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	14	68¢	$9	0x232914…
04-01 17:16:47	will the bharatiya janata party bjp win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x1568ca…
04-01 17:07:11	Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	Yes	BUY	219	96¢	$210	0x771fee…
03-25 15:20:43	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x84293a…
03-23 11:14:35	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	SELL	148	34¢	$50	0xfd9c66…
03-21 14:28:53	Will Pete Ricketts be the Republican nominee for Senate in Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	108	96¢	$104	0x4d1283…
03-21 14:16:35	will trump meet with xi jinping in march 2026 241	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x17de73…
03-20 03:17:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	148	67¢	$99	0x6f4517…
03-20 03:00:51	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x4dc40b…
03-19 01:59:05	Will Pete Ricketts be the Republican nominee for Senate in Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	121	96¢	$116	0x2379eb…
03-19 01:56:33	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	118	94¢	$111	0x3e16f5…
03-19 00:17:59	Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	Yes	BUY	76	95¢	$72	0xb2c9b9…
03-18 06:24:19	Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	Yes	BUY	101	96¢	$97	0xdbe016…
03-18 06:19:45	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xba6293…
03-18 01:02:29	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	630	99¢	$624	0x56f81c…
03-17 10:45:35	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0x19b5f6…
03-17 10:34:25	Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xcfadb2…
03-17 07:04:19	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	134	99¢	$133	0x5d8d22…
03-16 06:29:05	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	397	98¢	$389	0xefe9c0…
03-16 06:14:17	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	158	98¢	$155	0x7e462b…
03-16 06:14:11	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	208	98¢	$204	0x44922b…
03-16 06:13:41	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	128	98¢	$126	0x7f834d…
03-16 06:13:37	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	188	98¢	$185	0x212b69…
03-16 06:12:43	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	74	99¢	$73	0x64bbfc…
03-16 06:12:11	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x9f737b…
03-16 06:10:45	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	254	98¢	$250	0x6f65ca…
03-16 06:08:17	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1,007	98¢	$987	0x3bde78…
03-16 01:25:23	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	233	98¢	$229	0x32d0aa…
03-16 01:12:37	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	271	98¢	$266	0x73d0b3…
03-16 01:07:47	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	118	98¢	$116	0x8c3305…
03-16 01:07:47	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	294	98¢	$289	0x836bec…
03-16 01:07:01	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	110	98¢	$108	0xc63db7…
03-16 01:05:07	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$993	0x4180d4…
03-16 01:03:37	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	39	38¢	$15	0xbf071c…
03-16 01:02:41	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	81	98¢	$80	0x300f66…
03-16 00:58:05	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x96b9b4…
03-16 00:57:55	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x888ac5…
03-16 00:56:03	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0x956801…
03-15 07:16:27	f1 chinese grand prix winner russell 2026 03 15	Yes	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0xaa88c7…
03-15 07:09:09	f1 chinese grand prix winner russell 2026 03 15	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xa2e53f…
03-13 14:52:41	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1,150	99¢	$1,141	0x24d899…
03-12 15:52:41	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	400	99¢	$397	0xc4f09c…