Discrete-Species — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$113

Unrealized P&L

+$376

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

867

lifetime

Volume

$46.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$54

Open exposure

$33.0K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 07-03 19:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

91% — —

Politics

9% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-113

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 491 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		+31,838	$30,052	96¢	$30.5K	+$433	07-08 11:27
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No		-2,653	$-2,470	95¢	$-2527	$-57	06-03 21:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	765	$33.6K	35,637	0	+35,637	open	—	07-08 11:27
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	25	$2.9K	0	2,920	-2,920	open	—	06-01 02:49
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	7	$2.5K	0	2,653	-2,653	open	—	06-03 21:46
will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	19	$2.0K	1,446	1,207	+239	open	—	07-03 08:36
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	4	$1.7K	1,688	0	+1,688	open	—	02-28 07:21
will openais valuation hit low 600b by december 31 187 246	10	$1.2K	1,168	250	+918	open	—	07-03 19:44
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$1.1K	580	580	+0	open	—	02-28 06:52
will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	12	$719	4,142	2,560	+1,582	open	—	07-03 11:18
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$668	498	498	+0	open	—	01-27 14:58
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$541	588	0	+588	open	—	02-28 06:53
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	2	$138	200	200	+0	open	—	03-30 04:26
lol g2 blg 2026 03 22	2	$125	263	0	+263	open	—	03-22 12:50
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	2	$120	141	20	+121	open	—	01-17 16:14
Rockets vs. Lakers	1	$81	130	0	+130	open	—	04-29 14:37
chi ygb hen 2026 04 18 ygb	1	$75	184	0	+184	open	—	04-17 13:29
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	1	$69	111	0	+111	open	—	01-15 11:14
76ers vs. Celtics	2	$36	121	0	+121	open	—	05-02 12:37
76ers vs. Knicks	1	$30	100	0	+100	Knicks	$-30	05-04 14:48
Raptors vs. Cavaliers	1	$29	100	0	+100	open	—	05-03 14:30
76ers vs. Knicks	2	$29	107	0	+107	Knicks	$-29	05-06 14:58
Magic vs. Pistons	1	$26	100	0	+100	open	—	05-03 14:29
Thunder vs. Lakers	1	$24	100	0	+100	Thunder	$-24	05-09 15:05
Lakers vs. Thunder	1	$17	120	0	+120	Thunder	$-17	05-05 12:21
Lakers vs. Thunder	1	$13	100	0	+100	Thunder	$-13	05-07 14:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 11:27:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	600	96¢	$577	0x39ea4b…
07-03 19:44:29	will openais valuation hit low 600b by december 31 187 246	No	SELL	55	85¢	$47	0xb1df65…
07-03 19:11:34	will openais valuation hit low 600b by december 31 187 246	No	SELL	53	85¢	$45	0xe1e22a…
07-03 11:18:32	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	No	SELL	507	9¢	$46	0x42a9d3…
07-03 08:36:40	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x9a8746…
07-03 08:36:20	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x54d8cf…
07-03 03:45:29	will openais valuation hit low 600b by december 31 187 246	No	SELL	13	85¢	$11	0xcefd57…
07-03 03:45:11	will openais valuation hit low 600b by december 31 187 246	No	SELL	24	85¢	$20	0x3c2024…
07-03 03:45:05	will openais valuation hit low 600b by december 31 187 246	No	SELL	14	85¢	$12	0x755012…
07-03 03:45:01	will openais valuation hit low 600b by december 31 187 246	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0x8ce725…
07-03 03:44:59	will openais valuation hit low 600b by december 31 187 246	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x791ba2…
07-03 03:44:56	will openais valuation hit low 600b by december 31 187 246	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x41b3fb…
07-02 01:42:56	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	No	SELL	990	9¢	$89	0x4b6eae…
07-01 15:41:53	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	No	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xbb54c5…
07-01 11:56:17	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	No	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xd334cc…
07-01 10:56:26	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	107	80¢	$86	0x3a6d5a…
07-01 07:38:28	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	36	80¢	$29	0x364ade…
07-01 07:37:10	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	32	80¢	$25	0xf4b244…
06-28 11:49:05	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0x1a745d…
06-28 11:46:56	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	42	79¢	$33	0x48590c…
06-28 11:41:20	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	42	79¢	$33	0xa60d2f…
06-28 11:38:26	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	42	79¢	$33	0x6e556e…
06-28 11:36:34	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	42	79¢	$33	0x1611dd…
06-28 11:34:16	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	42	79¢	$33	0x4aac47…
06-28 11:29:02	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	42	79¢	$33	0x980e52…
06-28 11:25:31	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	42	79¢	$33	0x3d50e6…
06-28 11:17:25	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x674a60…
06-28 09:44:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	2,823	94¢	$2,665	0xf97639…
06-28 09:44:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	94¢	$4,715	0x4e49a4…
06-28 09:44:14	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	No	SELL	191	11¢	$21	0x17fead…
06-28 09:43:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x356cc5…
06-28 09:43:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5f8274…
06-28 09:43:26	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0e6f3f…
06-28 09:39:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x52e826…
06-28 09:35:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xdc6cbd…
06-28 09:35:08	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	57	94¢	$54	0x381188…
06-28 09:34:10	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0xbaa6ef…
06-28 09:32:56	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xf103d0…
06-28 09:31:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x52c326…
06-28 09:31:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xf0122a…
06-28 09:31:35	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	76	94¢	$72	0x9773be…
06-28 09:30:08	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xe38945…
06-28 09:30:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	45	94¢	$43	0x1c3e02…
06-28 09:27:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	57	94¢	$54	0x69d585…
06-28 09:25:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x3cf1db…
06-28 09:22:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xb28ca0…
06-28 09:22:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x3c7af3…
06-28 09:16:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa863e7…
06-28 09:14:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0c641e…
06-28 09:09:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc53420…
06-28 09:08:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0xa102c5…
06-28 09:07:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	59	94¢	$56	0x15ec44…
06-28 09:06:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x673fe1…
06-28 09:03:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x390ade…
06-28 09:00:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x5bc4eb…
06-28 08:57:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x7a504e…
06-28 08:57:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0x651bb9…
06-28 08:54:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xd5c90d…
06-28 08:53:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x73e1f4…
06-28 08:50:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x4aa071…
06-28 08:45:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa3ee3c…
06-28 08:45:17	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x10b82c…
06-28 08:45:10	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc2f922…
06-28 08:42:56	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x500cde…
06-28 08:40:59	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x713fd9…
06-28 08:40:29	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8090d7…
06-28 08:39:08	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8e531c…
06-28 08:36:05	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x58158d…
06-28 08:35:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x509806…
06-28 08:33:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa32477…
06-28 08:33:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0xf8a3f9…
06-28 08:31:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0x8a6ec9…
06-28 08:29:05	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x806385…
06-28 08:26:05	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xabc1b4…
06-28 08:24:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd9dc30…
06-28 08:24:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0x31029a…
06-28 08:23:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x4da327…
06-28 08:21:59	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x9550da…
06-28 08:19:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8619da…
06-28 08:17:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x2915f3…
06-28 08:17:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x55b617…
06-28 08:16:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xe3bfbf…
06-28 08:16:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbc2413…
06-28 08:14:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x2cda9f…
06-28 08:13:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd3fa1b…
06-28 08:10:50	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x13cdf7…
06-28 08:08:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x96d060…
06-28 08:08:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x9081d9…
06-28 08:07:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xb7940d…
06-28 08:05:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x33ec8f…
06-28 08:05:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x6f4d9d…
06-28 08:03:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5200cd…
06-28 08:01:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x980942…
06-28 07:58:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xa71c2a…
06-28 07:58:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x78232a…
06-28 07:53:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc9a3db…
06-28 07:53:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x9cf7cc…
06-28 07:47:44	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x498f38…
06-28 07:46:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x676b16…
06-28 07:45:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x9c8728…