Realized P&L
-$17.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.28K
Hit rate
77.7%
Resolved
22
Trades
57,639
lifetime
Volume
$15.3M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$265
Open exposure
$370.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 12:09
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
50% 33% $-14,625
Other
47% 92% $-3,081
Crypto
2%
Sports
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 12778 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No -104,763 $-103,904 100¢ $-104659 $-754 06-26 01:07
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No +43,902 $42,928 100¢ $43.9K +$930 06-29 10:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -43,770 $-42,334 86¢ $-37861 +$4,473 06-30 12:09
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -38,974 $-33,911 88¢ $-34103 $-191 06-24 14:56
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -32,194 $-31,584 100¢ $-32161 $-577 06-04 06:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +29,668 $29,047 100¢ $29.5K +$472 06-30 03:18
Trump out as President by June 30? No +29,174 $28,794 100¢ $29.1K +$351 06-11 14:47
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -16,970 $-16,436 100¢ $-16953 $-518 06-24 01:30
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -14,294 $-12,823 90¢ $-12936 $-113 06-15 13:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No -6,500 $-6,252 100¢ $-6487 $-235 06-18 17:06
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +7,089 $6,054 89¢ $6.3K +$284 06-19 17:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -2,999 $-2,160 73¢ $-2189 $-29 06-06 22:47
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No +2,000 $1,990 100¢ $2.0K +$8 06-25 19:21
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +2,000 $1,934 100¢ $2.0K +$58 06-19 14:18
Netanyahu out by June 30? No -1,934 $-2,285 100¢ $-1932 +$352 06-24 09:40
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +1,495 $1,322 100¢ $1.5K +$170 06-15 19:35
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No +1,295 $1,212 100¢ $1.3K +$79 05-29 20:55
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No -995 $-1,561 100¢ $-994 +$567 06-29 22:49
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +1,000 $655 84¢ $835 +$180 06-05 10:13
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No -849 $-789 88¢ $-747 +$42 06-21 14:55
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No -1,000 $-710 74¢ $-735 $-25 06-04 07:57
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No +940 $628 72¢ $672 +$44 06-28 22:20
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? No +500 $450 92¢ $458 +$8 06-09 18:55
US recession by end of 2026? No -382 $-327 88¢ $-338 $-11 06-11 00:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +471 $220 57¢ $271 +$51 06-26 04:17
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes +2,000 $190 $170 $-20 06-11 12:10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes -13,182 $-2,477 $-53 +$2,424 05-31 19:08
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes -5,288 $-59 $-13 +$45 06-19 01:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes -2,592 $5,791 $-13 $-5,804 06-24 20:00
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes -2,217 $-22 $-2 +$20 05-29 03:32