Realized P&L
-$17.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$229
Hit rate
77.7%
Resolved
22
Trades
59,272
lifetime
Volume
$16.0M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$269
Open exposure
$153.9K
17 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 06:27
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
50% 33% $-14,625
Other
47% 92% $-3,081
Crypto
2%
Sports
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 12778 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +130,780 $99,019 74¢ $97.4K $-1,588 07-21 06:27
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -35,204 $-30,596 88¢ $-30804 $-208 07-15 06:18
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -7,396 $-6,766 90¢ $-6619 +$147 07-20 19:20
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +7,089 $6,054 89¢ $6.3K +$248 06-19 17:08
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +6,000 $4,020 92¢ $5.5K +$1,470 07-08 17:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -2,999 $-2,160 84¢ $-2504 $-344 06-06 22:47
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No -1,000 $-710 78¢ $-785 $-75 06-04 07:57
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No -849 $-789 90¢ $-768 +$21 06-21 14:55
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +1,000 $655 76¢ $765 +$110 06-05 10:13
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No +940 $628 69¢ $649 +$21 06-28 22:20
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? No +500 $450 93¢ $465 +$15 06-09 18:55
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +500 $360 70¢ $352 $-7 07-17 16:02
US recession by end of 2026? No -382 $-327 88¢ $-336 $-9 06-11 00:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +471 $220 64¢ $304 +$84 06-26 04:17
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes -4,958 $-198 $-223 $-25 07-07 04:50
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes +2,000 $190 $99 $-91 06-11 12:10
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Yes -21 $-3 $-1 +$2 05-29 20:07