Realized P&L
-$17.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.28K
Hit rate
77.7%
Resolved
22
Trades
57,639
lifetime
Volume
$15.3M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$265
Open exposure
$370.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 12:09
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
50%
33%
$-14,625
Other
47%
92%
$-3,081
Crypto
2%
—
—
Sports
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 12778 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | -104,763 | $-103,904 | 100¢ | $-104659 | $-754 | 06-26 01:07 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | +43,902 | $42,928 | 100¢ | $43.9K | +$930 | 06-29 10:11 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | -43,770 | $-42,334 | 86¢ | $-37861 | +$4,473 | 06-30 12:09 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | -38,974 | $-33,911 | 88¢ | $-34103 | $-191 | 06-24 14:56 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | -32,194 | $-31,584 | 100¢ | $-32161 | $-577 | 06-04 06:39 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | +29,668 | $29,047 | 100¢ | $29.5K | +$472 | 06-30 03:18 | |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | +29,174 | $28,794 | 100¢ | $29.1K | +$351 | 06-11 14:47 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | -16,970 | $-16,436 | 100¢ | $-16953 | $-518 | 06-24 01:30 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | -14,294 | $-12,823 | 90¢ | $-12936 | $-113 | 06-15 13:32 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | -6,500 | $-6,252 | 100¢ | $-6487 | $-235 | 06-18 17:06 | |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | No | +7,089 | $6,054 | 89¢ | $6.3K | +$284 | 06-19 17:08 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | -2,999 | $-2,160 | 73¢ | $-2189 | $-29 | 06-06 22:47 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | +2,000 | $1,990 | 100¢ | $2.0K | +$8 | 06-25 19:21 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | +2,000 | $1,934 | 100¢ | $2.0K | +$58 | 06-19 14:18 | |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | -1,934 | $-2,285 | 100¢ | $-1932 | +$352 | 06-24 09:40 | |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | +1,495 | $1,322 | 100¢ | $1.5K | +$170 | 06-15 19:35 | |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | +1,295 | $1,212 | 100¢ | $1.3K | +$79 | 05-29 20:55 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | -995 | $-1,561 | 100¢ | $-994 | +$567 | 06-29 22:49 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | +1,000 | $655 | 84¢ | $835 | +$180 | 06-05 10:13 | |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | -849 | $-789 | 88¢ | $-747 | +$42 | 06-21 14:55 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | -1,000 | $-710 | 74¢ | $-735 | $-25 | 06-04 07:57 | |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | No | +940 | $628 | 72¢ | $672 | +$44 | 06-28 22:20 | |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | No | +500 | $450 | 92¢ | $458 | +$8 | 06-09 18:55 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | -382 | $-327 | 88¢ | $-338 | $-11 | 06-11 00:36 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | +471 | $220 | 57¢ | $271 | +$51 | 06-26 04:17 | |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | Yes | +2,000 | $190 | 8¢ | $170 | $-20 | 06-11 12:10 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | -13,182 | $-2,477 | 0¢ | $-53 | +$2,424 | 05-31 19:08 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | Yes | -5,288 | $-59 | 0¢ | $-13 | +$45 | 06-19 01:00 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | -2,592 | $5,791 | 0¢ | $-13 | $-5,804 | 06-24 20:00 | |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | Yes | -2,217 | $-22 | 0¢ | $-2 | +$20 | 05-29 03:32 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 795 | $1.21M | 666,839 | 567,954 | +98,885 | open | — | 04-01 04:35 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 1,374 | $1.12M | 671,250 | 464,566 | +206,685 | open | — | 03-04 16:27 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | 2,722 | $864.4K | 468,326 | 416,254 | +52,072 | open | — | 04-23 11:06 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 703 | $645.5K | 348,357 | 328,232 | +20,125 | open | — | 04-23 08:08 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 1,533 | $603.4K | 366,742 | 307,061 | +59,681 | open | — | 03-27 09:40 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 483 | $548.7K | 621,083 | 229,462 | +391,622 | open | — | 04-08 13:52 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 448 | $547.3K | 302,703 | 251,402 | +51,301 | open | — | 04-20 03:14 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 53 | $498.9K | 395,003 | 105,000 | +290,003 | open | — | 01-03 18:31 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | 21,778 | $497.9K | 181,021 | 324,225 | -143,204 | open | — | 06-26 01:07 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 749 | $472.1K | 329,256 | 186,829 | +142,427 | open | — | 05-31 18:12 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 314 | $395.5K | 110,622 | 294,772 | -184,150 | open | — | 01-28 08:01 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | 704 | $342.6K | 198,705 | 150,519 | +48,187 | open | — | 06-29 10:11 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 1,002 | $338.1K | 150,170 | 275,777 | -125,607 | open | — | 03-04 16:48 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 54 | $302.7K | 252,700 | 52,000 | +200,700 | open | — | 06-03 23:52 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | 1,714 | $302.2K | 151,128 | 156,998 | -5,871 | open | — | 06-24 09:40 |
| will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929 | 455 | $294.8K | 238,337 | 83,290 | +155,047 | open | — | 04-01 00:19 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 408 | $288.5K | 141,897 | 202,562 | -60,665 | open | — | 06-30 12:09 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 795 | $199.0K | 92,832 | 109,802 | -16,970 | open | — | 06-24 01:30 |
| will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255 | 171 | $161.5K | 90,118 | 74,498 | +15,620 | open | — | 03-25 01:23 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 224 | $142.9K | 89,146 | 87,609 | +1,538 | open | — | 01-27 01:10 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 219 | $133.3K | 65,726 | 71,500 | -5,773 | open | — | 05-19 07:00 |
| will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026 | 119 | $129.9K | 76,817 | 57,033 | +19,784 | open | — | 01-30 21:57 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 151 | $113.8K | 35,817 | 80,985 | -45,167 | open | — | 01-30 18:49 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 288 | $110.6K | 98,768 | 83,321 | +15,447 | open | — | 04-08 00:01 |
| fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting | 77 | $110.2K | 260,000 | 244,433 | +15,567 | open | — | 01-27 10:35 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 151 | $108.8K | 62,207 | 76,851 | -14,643 | open | — | 03-19 17:15 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | 380 | $107.3K | 242,842 | 236,487 | +6,355 | open | — | 04-06 14:02 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | 114 | $100.4K | 52,425 | 49,029 | +3,396 | open | — | 06-11 14:47 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 76 | $94.7K | 67,834 | 37,481 | +30,353 | open | — | 03-13 12:55 |
| will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282 | 152 | $92.6K | 57,155 | 38,822 | +18,333 | open | — | 03-23 16:45 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||