Realized P&L (90d)
+$95.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.94K
Hit rate
96.9%
Resolved (90d)
54
Trades (90d)
6,011
77,997 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$3.29M
$21.7M lifetime
Avg / trade
$278
Open exposure
$455.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-30 16:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 180 days
Categories
Politics
53% 69% -$37,589
Other
43% 69% +$41,135
Sports
2% 65% +$13,598
Crypto
2% 67% +$2,494
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 217 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027? No -97,499 -$82,939 96¢ $-93843 -$10,904 09-23 15:48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -56,775 -$49,801 94¢ $-53652 -$3,852 08-26 11:38
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +49,066 $39,340 94¢ $46.4K +$7,028 10-29 17:48
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No +46,309 $45,227 99¢ $46.0K +$781 10-08 09:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -53,119 -$58,545 82¢ $-43823 +$14,722 10-30 15:25
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -22,979 -$23,847 96¢ $-22164 +$1,684 07-30 05:20
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes -28,859 -$15,605 72¢ $-20634 -$5,029 10-29 17:50
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -14,478 -$12,912 97¢ $-14008 -$1,096 05-18 19:36
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -16,189 -$12,498 85¢ $-13817 -$1,319 09-21 02:32
US recession by end of 2026? No -14,063 -$11,787 93¢ $-13078 -$1,291 09-03 22:40
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -12,741 -$9,880 82¢ $-10473 -$594 10-26 16:00
2026 Balance of Power: Other No +10,001 $9,953 100¢ $10.0K +$33 10-07 15:33
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -11,357 -$9,023 85¢ $-9653 -$630 08-01 06:32
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes -39,181 -$9,570 22¢ $-8816 +$755 10-29 17:50
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -6,649 -$4,749 96¢ $-6406 -$1,658 06-06 00:57
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -5,825 -$4,951 92¢ $-5388 -$437 05-09 10:50
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +6,673 $2,746 72¢ $4.8K +$2,025 10-30 16:21
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes +5,000 $4,550 90¢ $4.5K -$75 10-26 01:37
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +4,839 $3,345 71¢ $3.4K +$91 10-10 20:51
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +3,228 $1,342 98¢ $3.2K +$1,824 09-15 06:55
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No +4,037 $3,792 74¢ $3.0K -$825 10-19 20:27
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -3,000 -$2,680 97¢ $-2902 -$222 05-08 23:15
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No +3,653 $1,651 70¢ $2.6K +$924 10-22 08:17
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -17,755 -$2,891 14¢ $-2397 +$494 10-25 21:51
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -5,881 -$1,875 39¢ $-2314 -$439 09-29 18:58
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +3,000 $1,770 68¢ $2.1K +$285 10-26 22:32
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No -2,000 -$2,609 94¢ $-1870 +$739 10-26 03:23
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No -1,502 -$1,423 98¢ $-1465 -$42 05-17 22:08
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +2,063 $1,449 70¢ $1.5K +$6 10-30 16:22
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No -1,500 -$1,405 96¢ $-1438 -$33 08-23 13:38