Realized P&L (90d)
+$90.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.42K
Hit rate
96.7%
Resolved (90d)
54
Trades (90d)
5,989
78,067 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$3.25M
$21.7M lifetime
Avg / trade
$278
Open exposure
$457.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-01 04:27
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 181 days
Categories
Politics
53%
69%
-$43,349
Other
43%
69%
+$41,135
Sports
2%
65%
+$13,598
Crypto
2%
67%
+$2,494
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk
• peak 217 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | -97,499 | -$82,939 | 96¢ | $-93940 | -$11,002 | 09-23 15:48 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | -56,775 | -$49,801 | 94¢ | $-53652 | -$3,852 | 08-26 11:38 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | +49,066 | $39,340 | 96¢ | $46.9K | +$7,519 | 10-29 17:48 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | No | +46,309 | $45,227 | 99¢ | $46.0K | +$781 | 10-08 09:29 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | -53,119 | -$58,545 | 82¢ | $-43823 | +$14,722 | 10-30 15:25 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | -22,979 | -$23,847 | 97¢ | $-22232 | +$1,615 | 07-30 05:20 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | -28,859 | -$15,605 | 72¢ | $-20634 | -$5,029 | 10-29 17:50 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | -14,478 | -$12,912 | 97¢ | $-14008 | -$1,096 | 05-18 19:36 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | -16,189 | -$12,498 | 85¢ | $-13825 | -$1,327 | 09-21 02:32 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | -14,063 | -$11,787 | 94¢ | $-13289 | -$1,502 | 09-03 22:40 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | -12,741 | -$9,880 | 84¢ | $-10709 | -$830 | 10-26 16:00 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other | No | +10,001 | $9,953 | 100¢ | $10.0K | +$33 | 10-07 15:33 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | -11,357 | -$9,023 | 86¢ | $-9710 | -$687 | 08-01 06:32 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | -39,181 | -$9,570 | 24¢ | $-9208 | +$363 | 10-29 17:50 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | -6,649 | -$4,749 | 97¢ | $-6446 | -$1,698 | 06-06 00:57 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | -5,825 | -$4,951 | 94¢ | $-5476 | -$524 | 05-09 10:50 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | +6,673 | $2,746 | 70¢ | $4.7K | +$1,958 | 10-30 16:21 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | Yes | +5,000 | $4,550 | 91¢ | $4.5K | $0 | 10-26 01:37 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | No | +16,407 | $3,137 | 22¢ | $3.5K | +$390 | 10-31 21:18 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,228 | $1,342 | 98¢ | $3.2K | +$1,830 | 09-15 06:55 | |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | No | +4,037 | $3,792 | 74¢ | $3.0K | -$784 | 10-19 20:27 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | -3,000 | -$2,680 | 97¢ | $-2911 | -$231 | 05-08 23:15 | |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | +9,618 | $2,205 | 26¢ | $2.5K | +$248 | 10-31 21:47 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | -5,881 | -$1,875 | 38¢ | $-2253 | -$377 | 09-29 18:58 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | +8,000 | $2,130 | 26¢ | $2.1K | -$10 | 10-31 21:55 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | +3,000 | $1,770 | 68¢ | $2.1K | +$285 | 10-26 22:32 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | -17,755 | -$2,891 | 12¢ | $-2042 | +$849 | 10-25 21:51 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | -2,000 | -$2,609 | 94¢ | $-1890 | +$719 | 10-26 03:23 | |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | No | +2,063 | $1,369 | 72¢ | $1.5K | +$106 | 11-01 04:27 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | -1,502 | -$1,423 | 98¢ | $-1471 | -$48 | 05-17 22:08 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 1,606 | $1.24M | 730,614 | 783,733 | -53,119 | open | — | 10-30 15:25 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 795 | $1.21M | 666,839 | 567,954 | +98,885 | No | +$14,059 | 04-01 04:35 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 1,374 | $1.12M | 671,250 | 464,566 | +206,685 | No | +$3,970 | 03-04 16:27 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | 2,722 | $864.4K | 468,326 | 416,254 | +52,072 | No | +$5,690 | 04-23 11:06 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | 22,704 | $813.1K | 369,666 | 463,592 | -93,927 | No | +$2,335 | 06-26 01:07 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 703 | $645.5K | 348,357 | 328,232 | +20,125 | No | +$6,226 | 04-23 08:08 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 1,533 | $603.4K | 366,742 | 307,061 | +59,681 | No | +$3,101 | 03-27 09:40 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 483 | $548.7K | 621,083 | 229,462 | +391,622 | Yes | -$12,758 | 04-08 13:52 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 448 | $547.3K | 302,703 | 251,402 | +51,301 | No | +$1,601 | 04-20 03:14 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | 2,638 | $544.8K | 199,610 | 361,164 | -161,553 | No | -$5,715 | 06-24 09:40 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 500 | $507.3K | 325,611 | 229,205 | +96,406 | Yes | +$19,419 | 09-21 09:39 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 53 | $498.9K | 395,003 | 105,000 | +290,003 | No | +$657 | 01-03 18:31 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 765 | $485.4K | 331,810 | 197,656 | +134,154 | No | +$10,561 | 05-31 18:12 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 314 | $395.5K | 110,622 | 294,772 | -184,150 | Yes | +$2,524 | 01-28 08:01 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | 760 | $376.0K | 227,540 | 158,565 | +68,974 | No | +$3,627 | 06-29 10:11 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 398 | $375.6K | 194,757 | 194,757 | +0 | No | +$3,243 | 09-03 04:44 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 1,002 | $338.1K | 150,170 | 275,777 | -125,607 | Yes | +$10,757 | 03-04 16:48 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 1,200 | $306.9K | 143,342 | 172,295 | -28,953 | No | -$1,042 | 06-24 01:30 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 55 | $306.7K | 252,700 | 56,000 | +196,700 | No | +$1,679 | 06-03 23:52 |
| will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929 | 455 | $294.8K | 238,337 | 83,290 | +155,047 | No | +$20,384 | 04-01 00:19 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 562 | $261.6K | 175,163 | 125,341 | +49,823 | open | — | 10-29 17:48 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | 242 | $252.6K | 126,925 | 126,925 | +0 | No | +$244 | 08-30 07:59 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | 557 | $246.1K | 129,933 | 119,933 | +10,000 | No | +$387 | 09-21 19:46 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 176 | $199.6K | 113,189 | 88,189 | +25,000 | No | +$520 | 09-15 18:53 |
| will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255 | 171 | $161.5K | 90,118 | 74,498 | +15,620 | No | +$702 | 03-25 01:23 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | 161 | $158.5K | 82,071 | 78,187 | +3,884 | No | +$225 | 09-29 08:45 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 346 | $156.7K | 215,591 | 89,552 | +126,039 | Yes | +$58,802 | 09-16 17:31 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | 947 | $149.5K | 68,501 | 84,933 | -16,432 | No | -$401 | 06-04 06:39 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 189 | $147.9K | 56,332 | 113,107 | -56,775 | open | — | 08-26 11:38 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 224 | $142.9K | 89,146 | 87,609 | +1,538 | No | +$24 | 01-27 01:10 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||