Twin-Cupola — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.92K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,135

lifetime

Volume

$8.59M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$4.02K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-06 19:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

77% 100% +$3,917

Other

19% — —

Sports

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 80 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	87	$2.51M	2,513,716	0	+2,513,716	Yes	+$2,571	05-09 19:30
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	276	$1.91M	982,855	972,263	+10,592	open	—	03-04 18:52
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	384	$578.2K	288,453	304,002	-15,549	open	—	02-03 20:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	81	$350.7K	185,000	168,242	+16,758	open	—	04-08 22:38
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	51	$326.0K	144,051	183,000	-38,948	open	—	04-08 20:11
netanyahu out by march 31 854	100	$292.0K	150,031	150,257	-227	open	—	04-01 04:44
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	45	$198.2K	166,325	41,000	+125,325	open	—	01-27 16:03
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	37	$159.3K	80,000	80,000	+0	open	—	07-22 02:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	62	$151.9K	83,714	83,727	-13	open	—	05-23 09:13
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	148	$151.6K	121,059	67,559	+53,500	open	—	07-07 20:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	5	$132.5K	132,677	0	+132,677	Yes	+$146	05-09 19:44
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	7	$119.5K	121,636	0	+121,636	open	—	04-30 21:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$118.8K	120,000	0	+120,000	Yes	+$1,200	05-09 12:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	73	$118.6K	120,509	5,000	+115,509	open	—	03-03 23:05
Trump out as President by April 30?	14	$99.4K	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	04-27 22:39
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	4	$99.0K	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	01-30 23:03
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	11	$98.2K	98,936	0	+98,936	open	—	06-02 19:41
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	113	$90.9K	89,852	18,441	+71,411	open	—	07-30 00:00
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	24	$89.4K	89,579	0	+89,579	open	—	02-03 22:42
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$87.6K	90,723	0	+90,723	open	—	06-17 17:29
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	140	$86.6K	96,197	91,586	+4,611	open	—	08-06 19:41
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	17	$79.9K	80,000	0	+80,000	open	—	03-13 13:11
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	5	$79.8K	80,000	1,000	+79,000	open	—	01-02 12:32
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	1	$70.1K	70,308	0	+70,308	open	—	04-16 20:19
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	10	$52.9K	26,851	26,851	+0	open	—	07-29 22:30
iran closes its airspace by june 8	2	$49.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	06-07 22:57
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	26	$48.9K	24,631	24,631	+0	open	—	03-04 16:21
will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	50	$45.1K	28,840	17,349	+11,490	open	—	08-01 00:13
will lady gaga perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	60	$43.7K	24,307	24,307	+0	open	—	02-09 01:45
gpt 5pt3 released by february 14 2026	12	$38.3K	38,007	3,305	+34,702	open	—	02-05 18:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-06 19:41:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2,138	73¢	$1,561	0x909887…
08-06 18:37:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2,473	75¢	$1,855	0xa1903a…
08-05 20:34:47	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	6,626	15¢	$994	0xcf830d…
08-05 20:27:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	11,292	14¢	$1,581	0xb6bf32…
08-05 18:14:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	97	17¢	$16	0x708dbb…
08-05 18:14:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x1033e6…
08-05 18:14:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	207	17¢	$35	0xec437c…
08-05 18:13:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,000	18¢	$180	0x379c77…
08-05 17:58:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	98	17¢	$17	0x7d6c18…
08-05 17:58:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	870	17¢	$148	0xec87ac…
08-05 17:43:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	4,950	16¢	$792	0x550e94…
08-05 03:44:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	730	21¢	$153	0x1b56dc…
08-05 03:11:50	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,190	21¢	$250	0x282419…
08-05 02:01:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	400	23¢	$92	0x1183c5…
08-05 02:01:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	6,933	22¢	$1,532	0x5b999b…
08-05 02:01:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	5,570	24¢	$1,359	0xf71261…
08-04 23:49:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0x0f1c70…
08-04 22:49:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x406d88…
08-04 22:49:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xe282ec…
08-04 22:46:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	310	30¢	$93	0x745d6c…
08-04 22:46:05	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	280	29¢	$81	0xdd2607…
08-04 22:45:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	202	29¢	$59	0xfc922b…
08-04 22:44:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,798	29¢	$521	0x29922a…
08-04 22:44:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	417	32¢	$133	0xb8ce09…
08-04 21:22:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	995	27¢	$269	0x39374c…
08-04 21:21:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x822c44…
08-04 16:33:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	7,911	19¢	$1,528	0x90840c…
08-04 15:26:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	15,020	26¢	$3,855	0xe7124d…
08-04 15:02:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	11,269	26¢	$2,930	0x93eaf9…
08-04 15:01:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	7,317	26¢	$1,916	0x2fd98b…
08-04 14:55:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	4,009	28¢	$1,123	0xefc00c…
08-04 14:51:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	4,115	30¢	$1,235	0x7082fa…
08-04 00:04:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,157	52¢	$602	0x7108a7…
08-03 22:58:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	441	45¢	$198	0x0647e4…
08-03 18:34:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,013	42¢	$425	0x811741…
08-03 18:32:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	556	42¢	$233	0x6298d8…
08-03 18:03:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,000	40¢	$800	0x9c110f…
08-02 21:29:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,000	50¢	$1,000	0x5ec186…
08-02 16:45:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,434	49¢	$703	0x7f409f…
08-02 14:39:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	782	51¢	$399	0x0a3db4…
08-02 02:36:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,000	50¢	$500	0xa246a6…
08-02 02:32:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5,712	56¢	$3,191	0x3e4980…
08-02 02:32:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	580	54¢	$313	0x41117d…
08-01 23:17:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	4,283	85¢	$3,641	0xb05c71…
08-01 23:11:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	559	85¢	$475	0xda3d0e…
08-01 22:57:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	441	85¢	$375	0x49b1c7…
08-01 22:18:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,555	88¢	$2,249	0xc78f1f…
08-01 22:18:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	495	87¢	$430	0x7f1908…
08-01 22:04:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,000	80¢	$1,600	0x56ad65…
08-01 19:15:09	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	SELL	13,424	100¢	$13,410	0x2fcf58…
08-01 15:58:09	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	3,000	79¢	$2,361	0x5bc461…
08-01 15:48:47	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	1,350	81¢	$1,088	0x44a163…
08-01 15:39:53	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	3,949	82¢	$3,225	0x795985…
08-01 15:39:47	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	210	81¢	$170	0xcd5889…
08-01 15:22:59	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	1,072	81¢	$871	0x435c96…
08-01 15:17:26	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	247	75¢	$184	0x7f0d42…
08-01 15:16:27	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	SELL	42	72¢	$30	0x19d3ef…
08-01 15:11:45	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	3,000	75¢	$2,241	0x5533b4…
08-01 15:09:48	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	638	77¢	$491	0x1d113c…
08-01 06:26:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	12,886	90¢	$11,597	0xac7287…
08-01 06:25:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	5,000	18¢	$900	0x3c88fd…
08-01 01:20:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	SELL	2,625	7¢	$186	0x071096…
08-01 01:05:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x0643b8…
08-01 01:03:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,370	90¢	$2,133	0x583a2a…
08-01 00:47:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0xde4d0e…
08-01 00:13:06	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	1,176	99¢	$1,169	0xc4b1ef…
07-31 22:54:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	4,004	28¢	$1,106	0x74a9b0…
07-31 22:54:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	760	25¢	$188	0x749ce2…
07-31 22:48:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	1,855	25¢	$464	0x5ea052…
07-31 22:18:11	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	28	99¢	$27	0xedfc30…
07-31 22:08:47	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x640eea…
07-31 22:08:45	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe99d54…
07-31 22:05:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0xbffac4…
07-31 21:51:11	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xacab4e…
07-31 21:50:39	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x9e8ecc…
07-31 21:50:33	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xaa2660…
07-31 21:50:33	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x53f93d…
07-31 21:50:32	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x387042…
07-31 21:50:30	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	9,790	99¢	$9,721	0x555f27…
07-31 21:43:03	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	60	99¢	$60	0xf39754…
07-31 21:37:29	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	2,145	99¢	$2,130	0x5f0b0d…
07-31 21:34:02	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	584	99¢	$580	0x12c14c…
07-31 20:57:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	3,000	92¢	$2,760	0xfee0b2…
07-31 19:36:18	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	61	1¢	$0	0x2d6bb4…
07-31 19:36:17	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	187	0¢	$1	0xc86a5b…
07-31 19:35:59	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xc7de2b…
07-31 19:35:45	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xd3f5d1…
07-31 19:35:44	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$10	0x5f3778…
07-31 19:35:42	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xb5eb59…
07-31 19:35:42	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	9,614	1¢	$48	0x9c2747…
07-31 19:21:56	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x51a540…
07-31 19:19:59	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	1,232	60¢	$738	0x5d7111…
07-31 19:19:41	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	887	59¢	$525	0x947d1e…
07-31 19:17:18	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	205	61¢	$125	0x0cdf66…
07-31 19:16:33	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xd2b9e9…
07-31 19:16:30	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	555	60¢	$335	0xa575e9…
07-31 19:16:20	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	199	60¢	$119	0xa5d8d4…
07-31 19:12:42	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	1,000	60¢	$596	0x36bc9a…
07-31 19:10:29	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xe930f0…
07-31 19:00:56	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	135	62¢	$83	0x0e1f71…