Twin-Cupola — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.92K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.39K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,603

lifetime

Volume

$7.97M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$4.97K

Open exposure

$16.2K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-07 00:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

76% 100% +$3,917

Other

20% — —

Sports

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes		+16,337	$14,770	99¢	$16.2K	+$1,387	06-28 00:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	87	$2.51M	2,513,716	0	+2,513,716	Yes	+$2,571	05-09 19:30
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	276	$1.91M	982,855	972,263	+10,592	open	—	03-04 18:52
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	384	$578.2K	288,453	304,002	-15,549	open	—	02-03 20:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	81	$350.7K	185,000	168,242	+16,758	open	—	04-08 22:38
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	51	$326.0K	144,051	183,000	-38,948	open	—	04-08 20:11
netanyahu out by march 31 854	100	$292.0K	150,031	150,257	-227	open	—	04-01 04:44
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	45	$198.2K	166,325	41,000	+125,325	open	—	01-27 16:03
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	62	$151.9K	83,714	83,727	-13	open	—	05-23 09:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	5	$132.5K	132,677	0	+132,677	Yes	+$146	05-09 19:44
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	7	$119.5K	121,636	0	+121,636	open	—	04-30 21:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$118.8K	120,000	0	+120,000	Yes	+$1,200	05-09 12:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	73	$118.6K	120,509	5,000	+115,509	open	—	03-03 23:05
Trump out as President by April 30?	14	$99.4K	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	04-27 22:39
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	4	$99.0K	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	01-30 23:03
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	11	$98.2K	98,936	0	+98,936	open	—	06-02 19:41
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	118	$98.2K	67,559	67,559	+0	open	—	07-07 04:00
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	24	$89.4K	89,579	0	+89,579	open	—	02-03 22:42
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$87.6K	90,723	0	+90,723	open	—	06-17 17:29
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	17	$79.9K	80,000	0	+80,000	open	—	03-13 13:11
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	5	$79.8K	80,000	1,000	+79,000	open	—	01-02 12:32
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	1	$70.1K	70,308	0	+70,308	open	—	04-16 20:19
iran closes its airspace by june 8	2	$49.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	06-07 22:57
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	26	$48.9K	24,631	24,631	+0	open	—	03-04 16:21
will lady gaga perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	60	$43.7K	24,307	24,307	+0	open	—	02-09 01:45
gpt 5pt3 released by february 14 2026	12	$38.3K	38,007	3,305	+34,702	open	—	02-05 18:12
will the us strike somalia next 656	6	$29.9K	30,000	0	+30,000	open	—	01-24 19:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	15	$26.1K	13,570	13,570	+0	open	—	07-06 22:59
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	25	$22.6K	12,939	12,928	+11	open	—	05-23 01:50
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$19.0K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	01-18 03:23
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	18	$17.7K	17,966	1,629	+16,337	open	—	06-28 00:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 04:14:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534 577	Yes	BUY	300	94¢	$281	0x44be55…
07-07 04:14:50	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193 839	Yes	BUY	10,241	94¢	$9,678	0x66ae3f…
07-07 04:00:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1,879	79¢	$1,484	0xed9cf6…
07-07 03:55:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	16	82¢	$13	0xd30e76…
07-07 03:55:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xa384c4…
07-07 03:54:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	14	82¢	$11	0x54922a…
07-07 03:54:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	12	82¢	$10	0x7a9cae…
07-07 03:53:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	617	82¢	$506	0xb8c602…
07-07 03:53:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	14	82¢	$12	0x61b868…
07-07 03:53:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	38	82¢	$31	0xde31ce…
07-07 03:52:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	16	82¢	$13	0x49db4e…
07-07 03:51:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	25	82¢	$20	0x0495f0…
07-07 03:51:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	16	82¢	$13	0xf75497…
07-07 03:50:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0x1a8ca7…
07-07 03:50:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	451	82¢	$370	0xd7ce37…
07-07 03:50:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	61	82¢	$50	0x1b5f73…
07-07 03:50:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	98	82¢	$80	0xeb2536…
07-07 03:49:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	6,637	82¢	$5,443	0x56ae09…
07-07 02:58:40	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	1,833	95¢	$1,734	0xce1f0d…
07-07 02:34:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	10,000	78¢	$7,800	0xfa4c5f…
07-07 01:37:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	229	60¢	$137	0x2db463…
07-07 01:37:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0xf2500d…
07-07 01:37:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	450	60¢	$270	0xd81e26…
07-07 01:37:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	13	60¢	$8	0x159743…
07-07 01:37:25	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	4,000	60¢	$2,400	0xc704f4…
07-07 01:37:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	333	60¢	$200	0x32a311…
07-07 01:36:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	512	60¢	$307	0x223877…
07-07 01:34:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	635	62¢	$394	0xde01b6…
07-07 01:33:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	5,880	60¢	$3,530	0x7738bf…
07-07 01:33:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	23,300	61¢	$14,306	0x030e79…
07-07 01:33:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	2,610	63¢	$1,644	0xa3b69a…
07-07 01:16:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,000	63¢	$630	0xeb6d99…
07-07 01:11:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,000	65¢	$1,300	0x9e572f…
07-07 01:09:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1,954	66¢	$1,290	0xfb1060…
07-07 01:07:25	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1,080	67¢	$724	0x6f8d36…
07-07 01:07:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	7	67¢	$5	0xa197a5…
07-07 01:07:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	40	67¢	$27	0x4e9dd1…
07-07 01:07:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	3,872	67¢	$2,595	0x985eb9…
07-07 01:06:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	11	67¢	$7	0x24df2c…
07-07 01:06:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	2,019	67¢	$1,353	0x89a701…
07-07 01:06:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x958bf4…
07-07 00:50:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x5a25bb…
07-07 00:37:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,379	51¢	$703	0x93136e…
07-07 00:37:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	863	50¢	$431	0xf192f4…
07-07 00:37:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xdb7266…
07-07 00:37:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,125	50¢	$563	0x80b572…
07-07 00:37:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4bbd2f…
07-07 00:37:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,594	50¢	$797	0xa69a37…
07-07 00:12:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x03086f…
07-06 23:56:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	300	75¢	$225	0x576d61…
07-06 23:56:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,000	75¢	$750	0xae3250…
07-06 23:53:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x4ae02f…
07-06 23:47:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,000	81¢	$810	0xa3e7ef…
07-06 23:42:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x011270…
07-06 23:41:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	5,590	81¢	$4,528	0xb41230…
07-06 23:33:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	186	85¢	$158	0x6ed183…
07-06 23:31:44	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260629202434612	Yes	BUY	205	66¢	$135	0xa0a728…
07-06 23:31:32	iran successfully targets shipping by july 31 20260629202434613	Yes	BUY	156	65¢	$101	0x5ba42f…
07-06 23:30:01	iran successfully targets shipping by july 31 20260629202434613	Yes	BUY	406	63¢	$256	0x9180d3…
07-06 23:24:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,246	86¢	$1,071	0x80804b…
07-06 23:13:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xca4c3b…
07-06 23:08:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	7,596	87¢	$6,608	0xdb80e0…
07-06 23:05:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	5,000	85¢	$4,250	0x172379…
07-06 23:02:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	965	84¢	$811	0x4efb34…
07-06 23:00:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3,000	85¢	$2,550	0x0f0499…
07-06 22:59:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	13,570	100¢	$13,556	0x538d36…
07-06 22:55:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	123	85¢	$105	0xcc91a8…
07-06 22:55:43	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	333	85¢	$283	0x01937c…
07-06 22:55:40	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xf358b0…
07-06 22:55:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0x2ab49f…
07-06 22:55:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x144269…
07-06 22:55:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0xe99b94…
07-06 22:55:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	167	85¢	$142	0xb6e6bb…
07-06 22:55:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	225	85¢	$191	0xa1b7ba…
07-06 22:54:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,000	86¢	$1,720	0x823ea9…
07-06 22:50:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3,000	86¢	$2,580	0x44212e…
07-06 22:38:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x3bd519…
07-06 22:37:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0xbbc680…
07-06 22:37:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	16	85¢	$13	0x718ffd…
07-06 22:37:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,304	85¢	$1,108	0x0678d4…
07-06 22:37:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	39	85¢	$33	0x197e65…
07-06 22:37:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0xffc2cc…
07-06 22:37:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xdda031…
07-06 22:37:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	68	85¢	$58	0xcf6f43…
07-06 22:37:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	39	85¢	$33	0xcd4dcc…
07-06 22:37:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	39	85¢	$33	0xc6688a…
07-06 22:37:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	111	85¢	$94	0x3b7cb7…
07-06 22:37:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	78	85¢	$66	0x2aac15…
07-06 22:37:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	56	85¢	$47	0x1aa048…
07-06 22:37:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	78	85¢	$66	0x01474c…
07-06 22:37:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	144	85¢	$122	0x64cb51…
07-06 22:37:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xc8172c…
07-06 22:37:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	222	86¢	$191	0x65e0a1…
07-06 22:37:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	207	86¢	$178	0x9f5a9d…
07-06 22:37:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x20769d…
07-06 22:25:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,000	68¢	$680	0x5c9814…
07-06 22:20:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,000	62¢	$620	0xac2261…
07-06 22:20:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	358	68¢	$244	0x6ce4aa…
07-06 22:20:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	642	68¢	$436	0xdeb16c…
07-06 22:19:43	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	770	73¢	$562	0x942ce4…