Twin-Cupola — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.92K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,796

lifetime

Volume

$8.33M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$4.64K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-27 11:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

76% 100% +$3,917

Other

19% — —

Sports

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	87	$2.51M	2,513,716	0	+2,513,716	Yes	+$2,571	05-09 19:30
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	276	$1.91M	982,855	972,263	+10,592	open	—	03-04 18:52
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	384	$578.2K	288,453	304,002	-15,549	open	—	02-03 20:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	81	$350.7K	185,000	168,242	+16,758	open	—	04-08 22:38
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	51	$326.0K	144,051	183,000	-38,948	open	—	04-08 20:11
netanyahu out by march 31 854	100	$292.0K	150,031	150,257	-227	open	—	04-01 04:44
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	45	$198.2K	166,325	41,000	+125,325	open	—	01-27 16:03
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	37	$159.3K	80,000	80,000	+0	open	—	07-22 02:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	62	$151.9K	83,714	83,727	-13	open	—	05-23 09:13
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	148	$151.6K	121,059	67,559	+53,500	open	—	07-07 20:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	5	$132.5K	132,677	0	+132,677	Yes	+$146	05-09 19:44
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	7	$119.5K	121,636	0	+121,636	open	—	04-30 21:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$118.8K	120,000	0	+120,000	Yes	+$1,200	05-09 12:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	73	$118.6K	120,509	5,000	+115,509	open	—	03-03 23:05
Trump out as President by April 30?	14	$99.4K	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	04-27 22:39
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	4	$99.0K	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	01-30 23:03
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	11	$98.2K	98,936	0	+98,936	open	—	06-02 19:41
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	24	$89.4K	89,579	0	+89,579	open	—	02-03 22:42
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$87.6K	90,723	0	+90,723	open	—	06-17 17:29
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	17	$79.9K	80,000	0	+80,000	open	—	03-13 13:11
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	5	$79.8K	80,000	1,000	+79,000	open	—	01-02 12:32
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	1	$70.1K	70,308	0	+70,308	open	—	04-16 20:19
iran closes its airspace by june 8	2	$49.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	06-07 22:57
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	26	$48.9K	24,631	24,631	+0	open	—	03-04 16:21
will lady gaga perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	60	$43.7K	24,307	24,307	+0	open	—	02-09 01:45
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	24	$39.5K	39,557	11,014	+28,543	open	—	07-26 21:17
gpt 5pt3 released by february 14 2026	12	$38.3K	38,007	3,305	+34,702	open	—	02-05 18:12
will the us strike somalia next 656	6	$29.9K	30,000	0	+30,000	open	—	01-24 19:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	15	$26.1K	13,570	13,570	+0	open	—	07-06 22:59
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	25	$22.6K	12,939	12,928	+11	open	—	05-23 01:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-27 16:31:06	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	BUY	1,856	97¢	$1,800	0xd7ce32…
07-27 16:31:03	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	400	97¢	$388	0x684038…
07-27 16:13:54	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	2,000	89¢	$1,780	0x7dad62…
07-27 16:08:55	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	1,203	91¢	$1,095	0xbe098d…
07-27 15:36:13	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	55	86¢	$48	0xa09283…
07-27 15:36:12	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	581	86¢	$499	0xfc8328…
07-27 15:36:12	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xbcf173…
07-27 15:36:12	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x2bfca9…
07-27 15:33:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,976	47¢	$929	0x745125…
07-27 15:32:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5,827	46¢	$2,677	0xf3b39c…
07-27 15:32:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	713	45¢	$321	0xe64473…
07-27 15:30:51	moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	Yes	BUY	2,140	100¢	$2,138	0xf0fece…
07-27 14:43:45	moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	Yes	BUY	77	96¢	$74	0xafcb58…
07-27 11:20:46	moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	Yes	BUY	225	91¢	$205	0x8e2ef3…
07-26 21:39:42	moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xfb02e6…
07-26 21:17:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	967	51¢	$490	0x36996e…
07-26 21:17:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	687	49¢	$336	0x64aafe…
07-26 21:06:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	600	49¢	$294	0x393170…
07-26 19:36:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	700	51¢	$360	0xd50bef…
07-26 19:21:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x789113…
07-25 22:42:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	211	69¢	$145	0x13b5a9…
07-25 22:40:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	385	69¢	$265	0x30ad75…
07-25 22:37:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x0e5c74…
07-25 22:34:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	304	69¢	$209	0xa8bca5…
07-25 22:17:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	503	73¢	$366	0x88ecaa…
07-25 22:16:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	976	69¢	$673	0x9b4b1f…
07-25 22:15:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	248	71¢	$176	0xb6b8f5…
07-25 22:15:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	132	71¢	$93	0xf23a74…
07-25 22:14:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	1,000	71¢	$713	0xbd31d9…
07-25 21:45:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	158	75¢	$118	0x113c81…
07-25 21:45:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xa0c600…
07-25 21:45:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x948d57…
07-25 21:40:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xdc9df9…
07-25 21:37:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0xb8e84e…
07-25 21:35:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	33	72¢	$24	0x1867a4…
07-25 21:33:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	10,000	80¢	$8,000	0xa6a01c…
07-25 21:25:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0x87c17e…
07-25 21:19:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	32,394	81¢	$26,239	0x2c695b…
07-25 21:19:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	300	81¢	$243	0x124c83…
07-25 21:16:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	414	81¢	$335	0x4e8886…
07-25 18:07:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	414	81¢	$335	0x0412c1…
07-25 03:19:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	4,462	83¢	$3,703	0xf810fd…
07-25 02:57:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	538	83¢	$447	0xb2861d…
07-25 01:03:00	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by july 31 2026 20260714210903833	Yes	BUY	1,198	90¢	$1,078	0xc6022b…
07-24 16:53:22	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4ef92b…
07-24 09:21:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	71¢	$90	0x0339af…
07-24 09:14:06	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,873	71¢	$3,460	0xb2f721…
07-23 22:07:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5,000	84¢	$4,200	0xfd827a…
07-23 19:18:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	9	84¢	$7	0x774441…
07-23 19:18:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x5c4a67…
07-23 19:18:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	6,174	84¢	$5,186	0x71b420…
07-22 17:46:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	64¢	$1,280	0xa35b5f…
07-22 17:44:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	66¢	$660	0xe96476…
07-22 17:00:19	moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	Yes	BUY	1,380	95¢	$1,309	0x70621f…
07-22 06:43:06	moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	Yes	BUY	61	91¢	$55	0x141907…
07-22 06:42:45	moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	Yes	BUY	202	91¢	$183	0xfd89a9…
07-22 05:42:12	moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x0340ea…
07-22 02:28:25	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	80,000	100¢	$79,840	0xa4fb20…
07-22 00:05:31	moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	Yes	BUY	34	92¢	$31	0x620537…
07-20 16:26:00	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	4,327	99¢	$4,297	0xf3348e…
07-20 16:25:15	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	3,571	99¢	$3,546	0x051c6c…
07-20 16:23:03	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	429	99¢	$426	0xb13f73…
07-20 16:20:34	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	4,286	99¢	$4,256	0xed7d28…
07-20 16:19:55	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	590	99¢	$586	0x1bde5b…
07-20 16:19:54	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	7,143	99¢	$7,093	0x2c170a…
07-20 16:19:51	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	331	99¢	$329	0xfc2633…
07-20 16:19:39	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	323	99¢	$321	0x3ce5a9…
07-20 16:18:46	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	16,520	99¢	$16,405	0x889339…
07-20 16:15:03	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,255	99¢	$1,246	0xbc7fee…
07-20 16:09:37	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x733f40…
07-20 16:07:40	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	984	99¢	$977	0x00b493…
07-20 16:07:19	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	420	99¢	$417	0xb06b1f…
07-20 16:07:15	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x77f8de…
07-20 16:06:13	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	7,143	99¢	$7,093	0xacb89f…
07-20 16:05:48	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0xa3e64a…
07-20 16:04:28	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc9028e…
07-20 16:04:06	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x4996b3…
07-20 16:03:57	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xb2b508…
07-20 16:03:49	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xb2a6f0…
07-20 16:03:21	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x2c8b77…
07-20 16:03:18	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xebca79…
07-20 16:03:15	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xb9c00b…
07-20 16:03:03	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfbfd88…
07-20 16:02:58	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x0bc024…
07-20 16:02:54	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xbe46f1…
07-20 16:02:40	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,493	99¢	$1,482	0x9e7078…
07-20 16:01:16	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	146	99¢	$145	0xe152be…
07-20 16:01:04	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	194	99¢	$193	0xf6b9ed…
07-20 16:00:31	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	156	99¢	$155	0xdf81ab…
07-20 16:00:25	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	144	99¢	$143	0x56cad2…
07-20 15:59:57	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,429	99¢	$1,419	0x67cd24…
07-20 15:56:22	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x02c5db…
07-20 15:56:00	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	23,917	99¢	$23,750	0xdeb8b4…
07-20 15:55:42	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0xa8b10a…
07-20 15:55:06	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	4,205	99¢	$4,176	0x0ebb5d…
07-17 01:16:46	will trump say biden 5 times during speech to the nation 20260713200621422	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xbbbbec…
07-17 00:26:23	will trump say venezuela during speech to the nation 20260713200621424	Yes	BUY	310	70¢	$218	0xdaf2a2…
07-17 00:25:58	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	Yes	BUY	2,154	74¢	$1,591	0x6d1374…
07-16 22:16:46	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	293	41¢	$120	0xe064fc…
07-16 22:16:46	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	171	41¢	$70	0x4d514b…