Glamorous-Stitcher — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$333.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$11.3K

Hit rate

76.6%

Resolved

125

Trades

3,301

lifetime

Volume

$17.7M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$5.37K

Open exposure

$490.1K

14 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-28 14:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Other

54% 64% -$483,216

Politics

44% 54% +$704,903

Sports

1% 100% +$111,476

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 82 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-229,295	-$190,747	82¢	$-189168	+$1,578	06-17 17:50
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+108,693	$91,513	96¢	$103.8K	+$12,289	05-23 14:13
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+74,141	$67,081	98¢	$72.6K	+$5,540	05-07 22:53
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+50,895	$44,787	94¢	$48.1K	+$3,308	09-16 20:21
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	+27,158	$22,469	96¢	$25.9K	+$3,467	05-07 19:57
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20,706	$17,010	92¢	$18.9K	+$1,936	10-01 17:27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+39,226	$24,576	41¢	$16.2K	-$8,376	09-28 14:28
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+6,560	$5,773	94¢	$6.2K	+$426	09-16 20:21
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+36,834	$15,661	15¢	$5.3K	-$10,321	07-01 15:07
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5,117	$2,480	70¢	$3.6K	+$1,128	05-19 16:31
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+6,741	$876	3¢	$212	-$664	09-15 14:09
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+10	-$289	6¢	$1	+$289	05-01 14:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+1	-$225	18¢	$0	+$225	07-16 14:09
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+0	-$500	6¢	$0	+$500	04-30 12:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	54	$1.20M	933,703	300,000	+633,703	No	+$6,230	03-04 16:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	151	$1.16M	866,764	601,078	+265,686	Yes	+$31,817	03-01 01:49
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	28	$902.5K	1,232,541	0	+1,232,541	Yes	+$317,778	09-16 14:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$849.9K	694,449	250,000	+444,449	No	+$93,577	04-27 19:41
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	27	$766.7K	1,575,192	20,328	+1,554,864	Yes	+$38,627	07-29 17:25
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	165	$757.3K	767,435	0	+767,435	No	+$10,098	01-07 23:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	80	$743.1K	2,422,151	646,739	+1,775,412	No	-$387,289	05-30 18:15
netanyahu out by march 31 854	191	$707.8K	381,992	350,000	+31,992	No	+$22,287	03-30 23:35
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	12	$705.5K	369,722	369,722	+0	No	+$33,160	03-31 22:06
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	39	$689.9K	597,692	189,606	+408,086	Yes	+$22,374	01-31 01:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	83	$626.8K	1,276,437	0	+1,276,437	Yes	-$10,015	10-28 14:09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	137	$597.0K	2,090,345	0	+2,090,345	No	-$518,323	10-28 14:09
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	247	$534.6K	665,992	0	+665,992	No	+$131,434	01-13 19:20
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	11	$516.3K	273,619	273,619	+0	Yes	+$4,891	03-14 23:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	77	$499.3K	922,044	254,929	+667,115	Yes	+$379,102	06-14 21:29
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	28	$450.3K	353,412	350,000	+3,412	Yes	+$251,711	06-17 17:43
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	521	$448.7K	473,319	0	+473,319	Yes	+$24,652	01-12 14:04
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	15	$395.0K	1,011,840	84,220	+927,620	No	-$185,646	07-29 17:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	29	$390.4K	291,319	190,000	+101,319	Yes	+$70,232	04-08 20:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	23	$378.6K	331,336	560,630	-229,294	open	—	07-16 14:09
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	206	$335.4K	348,330	242,845	+105,485	Yes	-$13,097	03-01 01:49
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	33	$262.0K	278,061	0	+278,061	No	+$16,028	01-12 14:03
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	14	$251.7K	665,706	0	+665,706	No	+$12,848	09-15 20:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	47	$243.7K	499,369	95,055	+404,314	No	-$193,100	06-14 22:29
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	11	$237.6K	349,113	0	+349,113	Max Holloway	+$111,476	07-12 02:55
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	3	$199.2K	200,020	0	+200,020	No	+$800	04-30 20:35
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	12	$173.6K	377,563	400	+377,163	No	+$14,973	02-20 13:21
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	56	$130.5K	149,907	0	+149,907	No	+$19,407	01-13 19:19
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	12	$128.1K	161,650	0	+161,650	Yes	-$48,137	02-28 19:42
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	258	$126.0K	111,734	85,236	+26,498	Yes	+$25,211	05-19 16:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 14:09:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	218	5¢	$11	0xe50a16…
10-28 14:09:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24,094	5¢	$1,125	0xdf5d8b…
10-28 14:09:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	75,680	5¢	$3,706	0x52b6c1…
10-28 13:17:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	5¢	$500	0xb0e9d7…
10-27 17:01:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,977	7¢	$269	0xed6e30…
10-27 17:01:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	36,023	7¢	$2,522	0x63b62d…
10-27 16:46:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100,000	7¢	$7,000	0x0b93d8…
10-27 16:45:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100,000	7¢	$7,000	0x1ae9d3…
10-26 14:58:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	169,821	7¢	$11,887	0x891d2a…
10-26 14:58:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	19,686	7¢	$1,362	0x773dfa…
10-26 14:46:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	150,231	6¢	$9,014	0xaae514…
10-23 16:48:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25,397	8¢	$2,032	0xd6b683…
10-23 16:48:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4,603	8¢	$368	0x76364e…
10-23 16:35:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50,000	8¢	$4,000	0x4736da…
10-23 14:03:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12,380	8¢	$990	0xef237c…
10-23 14:03:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	37,620	8¢	$3,010	0xe70b9f…
10-20 15:06:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	37,524	12¢	$4,503	0xe05736…
10-20 15:06:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	12¢	$1,200	0x321fea…
10-20 13:18:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	13¢	$1,300	0x3f1b76…
10-16 03:45:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23,862	75¢	$17,810	0xb5862a…
10-16 03:45:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,460	75¢	$4,095	0x3bb7f7…
10-16 03:45:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25,537	73¢	$18,638	0x075887…
10-14 19:20:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	50,000	31¢	$15,500	0x8aad19…
10-14 19:14:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25,539	30¢	$7,662	0x92ea78…
10-14 18:40:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25,680	30¢	$7,704	0xed31f2…
10-14 18:40:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	24,320	30¢	$7,296	0xd6413b…
10-14 14:12:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19,858	40¢	$7,943	0xbe5b4e…
10-14 13:51:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24,699	44¢	$10,867	0x51afa9…
10-14 13:51:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8,196	44¢	$3,606	0x28cefa…
10-14 13:26:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7,074	48¢	$3,396	0xc968a9…
10-14 13:26:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6,759	48¢	$3,244	0xa6daee…
10-14 13:25:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,007	47¢	$2,353	0xea00d8…
10-14 13:25:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,063	47¢	$2,380	0x29248c…
10-14 13:07:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,545	55¢	$1,399	0xdcb8f8…
10-14 13:07:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25,640	55¢	$14,101	0x664381…
10-14 13:06:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,590	52¢	$827	0x956252…
10-14 13:06:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,520	52¢	$1,820	0x3564bb…
10-14 13:05:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,848	51¢	$1,452	0x49d967…
10-14 13:05:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7,403	51¢	$3,770	0x8e40eb…
10-14 13:00:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	22,591	50¢	$11,245	0x085beb…
10-14 12:59:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	33,421	47¢	$15,707	0x8662f9…
10-14 12:58:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8,061	46¢	$3,708	0x92dc42…
10-14 12:58:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,947	46¢	$2,275	0x447724…
10-14 12:54:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	150	45¢	$68	0xbf7929…
10-14 12:54:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,359	45¢	$2,412	0x087856…
10-14 12:54:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21,570	43¢	$9,275	0xe9f949…
10-14 12:44:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,992	45¢	$2,246	0xe7116d…
10-14 12:43:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4,779	45¢	$2,151	0xb8b021…
10-14 12:43:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,677	45¢	$2,555	0x6e7320…
10-14 12:42:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,123	44¢	$5,334	0xd75b78…
10-14 12:42:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4,305	44¢	$1,894	0x52eb13…
10-14 12:42:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,704	43¢	$1,163	0xa70a8e…
10-14 12:39:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7,906	42¢	$3,295	0xb587fd…
10-14 12:39:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8,853	42¢	$3,718	0xa991af…
10-14 12:35:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,729	38¢	$3,317	0x41b152…
10-14 12:33:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8,920	37¢	$3,300	0x42c98b…
10-14 12:33:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,442	37¢	$1,999	0x12d035…
10-14 12:33:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,291	35¢	$3,252	0xee2768…
10-14 12:33:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,977	34¢	$3,392	0x251b71…
10-14 12:32:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,358	36¢	$5,155	0x50544b…
10-14 12:32:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,444	36¢	$1,960	0xe1d9ec…
10-14 12:30:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	99,527	29¢	$28,813	0xf411dd…
10-14 12:30:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	644	29¢	$187	0xe3ccaf…
10-14 12:13:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13,062	17¢	$2,220	0xfec09a…
10-14 12:13:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	23,458	17¢	$3,988	0xa584e1…
10-05 15:45:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,475	21¢	$1,780	0xb10829…
10-05 15:45:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,525	21¢	$320	0x6afcdb…
10-05 14:59:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	56,599	19¢	$10,754	0x89d779…
10-05 14:59:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	43,401	19¢	$8,246	0x29cf55…
10-05 14:53:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	18¢	$1,800	0x5783f0…
10-05 13:51:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	29,826	17¢	$5,070	0xe705b7…
10-05 13:29:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50,000	17¢	$8,500	0xc3d97e…
10-02 20:34:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	136,226	82¢	$111,706	0x200208…
10-02 15:03:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,303	17¢	$1,411	0x050f8b…
10-02 13:38:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	19,015	84¢	$15,972	0x63451b…
10-02 13:38:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	31,332	84¢	$26,319	0x41dae3…
10-02 13:08:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32,226	83¢	$26,748	0x5ed655…
10-02 13:00:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,220	82¢	$7,560	0xe8d07b…
10-02 12:33:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	52,413	86¢	$45,076	0x94fc8e…
10-02 12:33:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,864	86¢	$5,043	0x682cfd…
10-01 18:58:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,997	76¢	$3,798	0xea5589…
10-01 18:45:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19,830	76¢	$15,071	0x83e1ea…
10-01 18:45:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	19	76¢	$15	0x4a3db9…
10-01 18:45:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,727	76¢	$1,312	0x90f2ef…
10-01 18:34:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,471	75¢	$7,103	0x7584d3…
10-01 17:43:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	77,726	25¢	$19,432	0xed76d7…
10-01 17:43:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	22,274	24¢	$5,346	0x254dac…
10-01 17:27:47	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,294	83¢	$4,394	0xf6664f…
10-01 17:27:45	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13,902	81¢	$11,212	0x0e1254…
09-30 15:18:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20,269	35¢	$7,094	0x73d145…
09-30 15:17:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	35¢	$350	0x9282eb…
09-30 13:23:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	34¢	$1,700	0x1b169e…
09-30 13:19:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	35¢	$1,750	0x424f85…
09-30 13:18:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	35¢	$1,750	0xae7932…
09-30 13:07:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,601	34¢	$1,904	0x5357d7…
09-30 13:05:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11,677	34¢	$3,970	0xea9bef…
09-30 12:47:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	27,843	34¢	$9,467	0xbd5571…
09-30 12:43:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50,000	34¢	$17,238	0x514613…
09-30 12:41:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17,154	34¢	$5,832	0xd7f06d…
09-30 12:38:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,080	33¢	$1,016	0xc0edcd…