Orderly-Poster — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.08K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

511

lifetime

Volume

$49.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$97

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-16 09:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

63% 100% +$3,062

Other

31% — —

Crypto

6% 100% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	33	$6.4K	4,575	4,575	+0	Yes	+$2,669	05-09 19:30
will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 2026 portugal presidential election 643	13	$5.2K	2,893	2,893	+0	open	—	01-21 15:25
will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 3035	9	$2.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	02-08 20:06
will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in january 763	9	$2.7K	2,917	0	+2,917	open	—	02-10 19:34
will joo cotrim de figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	31	$2.2K	2,972	0	+2,972	open	—	01-14 11:36
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$1.9K	0	2,000	-2,000	open	—	01-24 00:04
will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in january 381	4	$1.9K	1,020	1,020	+0	open	—	01-26 00:12
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	14	$1.5K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	01-24 21:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$1.2K	784	784	+0	Yes	+$363	05-09 11:10
maduro travels outside venezuela by march 31	2	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	01-03 07:51
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	1	$1.2K	1,265	0	+1,265	open	—	01-23 20:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	7	$1.0K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	06-02 15:36
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	8	$917	659	659	+0	open	—	05-16 11:54
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	1	$840	0	1,000	-1,000	open	—	06-03 19:20
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	1	$830	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-20 19:07
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 52 and 54	10	$805	500	500	+0	open	—	02-02 14:36
iran strike on israel by february 28	4	$800	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-17 16:07
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	1	$780	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-10 12:19
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	5	$700	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-24 16:17
will the us not strike iran by march 31 2026	16	$642	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-13 23:12
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	7	$595	707	0	+707	open	—	05-29 13:56
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	2	$538	99	499	-400	open	—	06-05 18:31
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	1	$530	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-20 10:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	5	$525	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	06-02 14:09
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	1	$502	1,155	0	+1,155	open	—	02-22 16:13
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	4	$500	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-13 23:04
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$480	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-24 13:47
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$465	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-24 14:02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$453	1,218	0	+1,218	open	—	03-08 12:44
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	1	$440	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	03-02 14:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 09:04:35	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x14ae54…
07-10 15:54:32	atp sinner djokovi 2026 07 08	Novak Djokovic	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x0e515c…
07-02 17:57:02	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	49	92¢	$45	0x613dd0…
07-02 10:47:56	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x10b621…
06-18 23:55:22	Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?	No	SELL	240	87¢	$209	0x7bd723…
06-16 20:24:44	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	87¢	$26	0x98adb2…
06-16 20:03:19	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	460	87¢	$400	0xbddc92…
06-16 14:12:38	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x860210…
06-12 10:05:58	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0x70e984…
06-08 13:12:09	Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?	No	SELL	16	79¢	$13	0x5d7c28…
06-08 13:11:19	Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x03b92c…
06-08 13:10:00	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	45	79¢	$36	0xb50811…
06-08 13:09:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	190	94¢	$178	0x5aa5ab…
06-08 13:08:51	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	190	89¢	$169	0xe0ee02…
06-08 13:07:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	490	82¢	$402	0x80c8e6…
06-08 13:05:54	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	450	79¢	$356	0x475a92…
06-05 18:31:21	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	SELL	499	90¢	$448	0x1299b1…
06-05 17:59:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	20¢	$200	0x4a7c63…
06-05 17:59:04	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x1647c3…
06-05 17:57:48	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x54be78…
06-03 19:20:00	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0x8d67df…
06-03 16:18:19	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	BUY	99	91¢	$90	0x984d49…
06-03 16:17:43	US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0x671dd6…
06-03 16:14:15	Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	No	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0xa9aaed…
06-03 16:13:21	Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0x3dd679…
06-03 16:12:51	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	19¢	$2	0x227b1f…
06-03 16:10:57	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0xadf4c3…
06-03 16:09:45	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0x216499…
06-02 15:36:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	SELL	1,200	24¢	$288	0x5e6656…
06-02 14:09:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	No	SELL	1,500	10¢	$150	0x51c0f4…
06-02 09:14:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	No	BUY	1,065	25¢	$266	0x67ab1e…
06-02 09:13:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	No	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xf17b35…
06-02 09:12:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	No	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x62f309…
06-02 09:03:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	No	BUY	35	25¢	$9	0x5ece5c…
06-02 02:07:41	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	41	60¢	$25	0x01fc2d…
06-02 02:07:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	196	60¢	$117	0xd13542…
06-02 02:07:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	196	60¢	$118	0xe755af…
06-02 02:06:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	196	60¢	$117	0x01bb59…
06-02 02:06:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	197	60¢	$118	0x72afa1…
06-02 02:06:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	374	60¢	$225	0x85062e…
06-01 00:48:38	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0x056673…
05-31 10:29:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	268	83¢	$222	0x38d41c…
05-31 05:28:05	Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?	No	SELL	250	90¢	$225	0xc0cf4f…
05-29 16:53:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	198	67¢	$132	0x5f48d4…
05-29 16:52:39	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	150	90¢	$135	0x4ae653…
05-29 13:56:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0xbae63a…
05-29 13:55:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x60df08…
05-29 13:53:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	11¢	$21	0x45e261…
05-23 21:38:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	144	90¢	$130	0x7200ad…
05-23 00:13:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	109	80¢	$87	0xa25e3d…
05-22 22:55:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	SELL	520	17¢	$88	0xdd58ea…
05-22 19:04:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xced220…
05-22 19:04:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	105	34¢	$36	0x71c2f8…
05-22 19:03:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xc80200…
05-22 19:03:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xed852f…
05-22 19:02:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x4e19d9…
05-22 19:02:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x4a77a0…
05-22 19:02:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xcffb0a…
05-22 19:02:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x4ffaba…
05-22 19:02:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0xcd6620…
05-22 19:02:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0x7b95a1…
05-20 11:36:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	350	45¢	$158	0x967bb2…
05-18 18:19:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xf9e7d9…
05-17 23:15:42	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	No	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0x78c3e0…
05-17 23:15:42	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	No	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x241ab2…
05-17 23:07:39	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	No	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xe059b6…
05-17 16:52:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x9692cd…
05-17 16:52:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	250	83¢	$207	0xc4be43…
05-17 16:19:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	168	83¢	$140	0x37728e…
05-16 11:54:35	U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	359	100¢	$358	0xed24e9…
05-16 09:13:21	U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	359	70¢	$250	0x63bad1…
05-16 09:09:56	U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	300	35¢	$105	0xcc49a4…
05-16 03:31:46	U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	68¢	$23	0xd99ff5…
05-15 17:57:06	U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xf7a8b6…
05-15 12:14:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x52ee9b…
05-13 20:17:27	U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	81	68¢	$55	0x924afa…
05-13 20:16:20	U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	165	68¢	$112	0xbb7c0f…
05-13 10:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x995948…
05-13 10:45:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x13e57b…
05-13 10:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbcf9c9…
05-12 14:23:42	U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x02ca43…
05-10 07:33:42	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xf0e1fa…
05-10 07:27:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x5d5e6a…
05-10 07:01:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	11¢	$2	0xf199f6…
05-10 06:44:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xae8be8…
05-10 05:18:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x125abf…
05-10 03:31:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	48	11¢	$5	0xc9ac20…
05-10 02:16:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xedbb18…
05-09 19:30:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,575	99¢	$4,529	0x4f8740…
05-09 11:10:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	784	100¢	$783	0xa7c1db…
05-08 18:34:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	784	54¢	$420	0x6c0460…
05-08 18:28:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	59¢	$55	0xc41386…
05-08 18:25:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	56¢	$35	0x5c6989…
05-08 18:25:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	545	55¢	$300	0x727f17…
05-08 18:25:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x6bfbf5…
05-04 18:36:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x3be14a…
05-03 19:52:56	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	Vitality	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x25a035…
05-03 19:00:10	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	Vitality	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x89910e…
05-03 18:58:04	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner	Vitality	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xca6ee9…
05-03 18:32:48	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner	Vitality	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x7e2de4…