Orderly-Poster — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.08K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

554

lifetime

Volume

$49.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$90

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-05 11:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

63% 100% +$3,062

Other

31% — —

Crypto

6% 100% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	33	$6.4K	4,575	4,575	+0	Yes	+$2,669	05-09 19:30
will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 2026 portugal presidential election 643	13	$5.2K	2,893	2,893	+0	open	—	01-21 15:25
will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 3035	9	$2.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	02-08 20:06
will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in january 763	9	$2.7K	2,917	0	+2,917	open	—	02-10 19:34
will joo cotrim de figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	31	$2.2K	2,972	0	+2,972	open	—	01-14 11:36
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$1.9K	0	2,000	-2,000	open	—	01-24 00:04
will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in january 381	4	$1.9K	1,020	1,020	+0	open	—	01-26 00:12
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	14	$1.5K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	01-24 21:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$1.2K	784	784	+0	Yes	+$363	05-09 11:10
maduro travels outside venezuela by march 31	2	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	01-03 07:51
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	1	$1.2K	1,265	0	+1,265	open	—	01-23 20:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	7	$1.0K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	06-02 15:36
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	8	$917	659	659	+0	open	—	05-16 11:54
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	1	$840	0	1,000	-1,000	open	—	06-03 19:20
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	1	$830	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-20 19:07
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 52 and 54	10	$805	500	500	+0	open	—	02-02 14:36
iran strike on israel by february 28	4	$800	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-17 16:07
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	1	$780	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-10 12:19
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	5	$700	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-24 16:17
will the us not strike iran by march 31 2026	16	$642	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-13 23:12
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	7	$595	707	0	+707	open	—	05-29 13:56
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	2	$538	99	499	-400	open	—	06-05 18:31
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	1	$530	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-20 10:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	5	$525	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	06-02 14:09
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	1	$502	1,155	0	+1,155	open	—	02-22 16:13
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	4	$500	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-13 23:04
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$480	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-24 13:47
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$465	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-24 14:02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$453	1,218	0	+1,218	open	—	03-08 12:44
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?	3	$443	0	500	-500	open	—	07-29 17:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 11:31:11	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x742c64…
07-30 10:28:44	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x7be829…
07-29 20:18:53	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xb33d86…
07-29 20:10:57	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x54aadd…
07-29 20:10:44	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x803b41…
07-29 20:10:29	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe580ff…
07-29 20:10:09	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x8b6e16…
07-29 19:02:44	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc8ddec…
07-29 19:02:23	Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xcef978…
07-29 19:00:57	Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xedf028…
07-29 19:00:39	Record crypto liquidation in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xa37872…
07-29 19:00:27	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x10803a…
07-29 19:00:12	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe086cb…
07-29 18:59:50	Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x2bd2d7…
07-29 18:59:36	Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x90b229…
07-29 18:59:15	Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x10f1ac…
07-29 18:59:00	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd939b2…
07-29 18:58:47	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x88fcbc…
07-29 18:58:35	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf40925…
07-29 18:58:23	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xac925e…
07-29 18:58:11	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xc87743…
07-29 18:57:54	Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xf24836…
07-29 18:00:20	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x44a497…
07-29 17:59:36	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xe5b1bd…
07-29 17:59:14	US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x62085d…
07-29 17:58:12	Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xec9240…
07-29 17:57:56	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xb4ca38…
07-29 17:57:38	Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xa603fd…
07-29 17:57:17	Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xf091b8…
07-29 17:38:59	Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x4513ab…
07-29 17:38:38	Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x1d1485…
07-29 17:32:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0xc0f58e…
07-29 17:32:20	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0xace901…
07-29 17:32:08	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x3aed40…
07-29 17:31:56	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xceac38…
07-29 17:31:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xdbb428…
07-29 17:31:24	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x246e1d…
07-29 17:31:11	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x18bf72…
07-29 17:30:51	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x0292b0…
07-29 17:29:36	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x3ed902…
07-29 17:29:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x587e9a…
07-29 17:28:18	Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xc9dfc2…
07-29 17:28:02	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xb3ecfc…
07-16 09:04:35	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x14ae54…
07-10 15:54:32	atp sinner djokovi 2026 07 08	Novak Djokovic	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x0e515c…
07-02 17:57:02	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	49	92¢	$45	0x613dd0…
07-02 10:47:56	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x10b621…
06-18 23:55:22	Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?	No	SELL	240	87¢	$209	0x7bd723…
06-16 20:24:44	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	87¢	$26	0x98adb2…
06-16 20:03:19	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	460	87¢	$400	0xbddc92…
06-16 14:12:38	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x860210…
06-12 10:05:58	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0x70e984…
06-08 13:12:09	Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?	No	SELL	16	79¢	$13	0x5d7c28…
06-08 13:11:19	Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x03b92c…
06-08 13:10:00	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	45	79¢	$36	0xb50811…
06-08 13:09:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	190	94¢	$178	0x5aa5ab…
06-08 13:08:51	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	190	89¢	$169	0xe0ee02…
06-08 13:07:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	490	82¢	$402	0x80c8e6…
06-08 13:05:54	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	450	79¢	$356	0x475a92…
06-05 18:31:21	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	SELL	499	90¢	$448	0x1299b1…
06-05 17:59:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	20¢	$200	0x4a7c63…
06-05 17:59:04	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x1647c3…
06-05 17:57:48	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x54be78…
06-03 19:20:00	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0x8d67df…
06-03 16:18:19	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	BUY	99	91¢	$90	0x984d49…
06-03 16:17:43	US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0x671dd6…
06-03 16:14:15	Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	No	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0xa9aaed…
06-03 16:13:21	Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0x3dd679…
06-03 16:12:51	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	19¢	$2	0x227b1f…
06-03 16:10:57	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0xadf4c3…
06-03 16:09:45	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0x216499…
06-02 15:36:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	SELL	1,200	24¢	$288	0x5e6656…
06-02 14:09:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	No	SELL	1,500	10¢	$150	0x51c0f4…
06-02 09:14:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	No	BUY	1,065	25¢	$266	0x67ab1e…
06-02 09:13:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	No	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xf17b35…
06-02 09:12:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	No	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x62f309…
06-02 09:03:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	No	BUY	35	25¢	$9	0x5ece5c…
06-02 02:07:41	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	41	60¢	$25	0x01fc2d…
06-02 02:07:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	196	60¢	$117	0xd13542…
06-02 02:07:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	196	60¢	$118	0xe755af…
06-02 02:06:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	196	60¢	$117	0x01bb59…
06-02 02:06:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	197	60¢	$118	0x72afa1…
06-02 02:06:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	No	BUY	374	60¢	$225	0x85062e…
06-01 00:48:38	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0x056673…
05-31 10:29:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	268	83¢	$222	0x38d41c…
05-31 05:28:05	Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?	No	SELL	250	90¢	$225	0xc0cf4f…
05-29 16:53:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	198	67¢	$132	0x5f48d4…
05-29 16:52:39	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	150	90¢	$135	0x4ae653…
05-29 13:56:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0xbae63a…
05-29 13:55:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x60df08…
05-29 13:53:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	11¢	$21	0x45e261…
05-23 21:38:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	144	90¢	$130	0x7200ad…
05-23 00:13:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	109	80¢	$87	0xa25e3d…
05-22 22:55:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	SELL	520	17¢	$88	0xdd58ea…
05-22 19:04:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xced220…
05-22 19:04:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	105	34¢	$36	0x71c2f8…
05-22 19:03:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xc80200…
05-22 19:03:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xed852f…
05-22 19:02:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x4e19d9…
05-22 19:02:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x4a77a0…