Orderly-Poster — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.99K

Unrealized P&L

-$105

Hit rate

65.6%

Resolved

Trades

837

lifetime

Volume

$60.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$72

Open exposure

$1.06K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-02 21:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Politics

56% 46% -$2,144

Other

38% 51% -$1,280

Crypto

6% 50% -$573

Sports

0% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	-500	-$463	97¢	$-484	-$21	07-29 00:16
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	-300	-$261	98¢	$-292	-$32	07-29 17:32
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	-276	-$178	94¢	$-258	-$80	07-29 00:16
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-1,000	-$55	3¢	$-26	+$28	05-08 18:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	33	$6.4K	4,575	4,575	+0	Yes	+$2,669	05-09 19:30
will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 2026 portugal presidential election 643	13	$5.2K	2,893	2,893	+0	No	+$530	01-21 15:25
will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 3035	9	$2.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$1	02-08 20:06
will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in january 763	9	$2.7K	2,917	0	+2,917	No	+$251	02-10 19:34
will joo cotrim de figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	31	$2.2K	2,972	0	+2,972	No	+$771	01-14 11:36
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$1.9K	0	2,000	-2,000	Yes	-$54	01-24 00:04
will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in january 381	4	$1.9K	1,020	1,020	+0	No	+$19	01-26 00:12
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	3	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-03 19:20
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	14	$1.5K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	-$1,480	01-24 21:09
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	10	$1.5K	599	1,099	-500	open	—	07-29 00:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$1.2K	784	784	+0	Yes	+$363	05-09 11:10
maduro travels outside venezuela by march 31	2	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$163	01-03 07:51
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	1	$1.2K	1,265	0	+1,265	No	+$72	01-23 20:54
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	18	$1.2K	1,776	1,776	+0	No	-$570	09-11 17:29
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	6	$1.0K	500	800	-300	open	—	07-29 17:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	7	$1.0K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	-$432	06-02 15:36
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	8	$917	659	659	+0	Yes	+$9	05-16 11:54
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	49	$868	518	518	+0	No	+$167	09-11 13:25
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?	7	$844	500	500	+0	open	—	07-29 17:57
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	5	$838	500	500	+0	open	—	08-28 19:04
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	1	$830	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$170	01-20 19:07
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 52 and 54	10	$805	500	500	+0	No	+$5	02-02 14:36
iran strike on israel by february 28	4	$800	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$800	02-17 16:07
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	1	$780	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$780	02-10 12:19
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	5	$770	500	500	+0	open	—	07-29 17:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$740	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-05 17:59
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	5	$700	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$300	01-24 16:17
will the us not strike iran by march 31 2026	16	$642	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$642	02-13 23:12
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	7	$595	707	0	+707	No	+$112	05-29 13:56
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	1	$530	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$530	01-20 10:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 21:03:55	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	166	5¢	$8	0x8846d0…
11-01 18:47:15	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	102	4¢	$4	0x6b53f8…
11-01 14:31:03	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x425720…
10-31 15:49:18	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	241	5¢	$11	0xa2cd42…
10-31 04:23:27	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xfbf268…
10-31 04:06:58	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x422664…
10-30 20:39:10	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xbe8f40…
10-30 17:52:10	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x88dca3…
10-29 21:58:39	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x3e8651…
10-29 21:58:37	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x425789…
10-29 21:58:37	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0x3d307f…
10-29 19:11:00	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	92	4¢	$4	0x9a29f4…
10-29 16:09:25	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x338a2f…
10-29 16:09:17	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0x4055be…
09-14 18:45:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	15¢	$150	0xfc3a5e…
09-11 17:29:03	Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,019	9¢	$92	0x841da3…
09-11 14:24:00	Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	485	11¢	$53	0x148880…
09-11 13:44:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	980	19¢	$186	0xfb4217…
09-11 13:25:24	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	SELL	518	100¢	$517	0xb42cf9…
09-09 22:13:36	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	158	68¢	$108	0x29bba4…
09-09 20:50:48	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	56	68¢	$38	0x89bc13…
09-09 20:50:48	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	56	68¢	$38	0x4883e5…
09-09 20:41:48	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x107891…
09-09 20:34:13	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xe6b909…
09-09 20:22:33	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xc649bb…
09-09 20:10:06	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x2f3d47…
09-09 19:58:07	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x6d436a…
09-09 19:57:40	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xb5ef27…
09-09 19:25:49	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x9456d7…
09-09 19:08:51	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x10284a…
09-09 18:40:12	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x3aba15…
09-09 17:07:48	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x6a0a1c…
09-09 17:07:36	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x87a4cf…
09-09 14:43:51	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x38d3ba…
09-08 18:02:46	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xf1daa0…
09-08 13:31:37	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xf6a943…
09-08 13:11:48	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x2fc783…
09-08 12:42:37	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x599976…
09-08 10:56:57	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x075a0b…
09-08 10:53:43	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xb74f46…
09-08 10:53:39	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x9152a3…
09-08 10:53:37	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x32a4c2…
09-08 10:52:43	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xa929fa…
09-08 10:52:27	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x5c51bf…
09-08 10:44:40	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xf2b30e…
09-08 09:57:58	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xbafaf0…
09-08 09:51:15	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x1bc6f3…
09-08 09:41:48	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x091141…
09-08 09:36:54	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xc9b0f2…
09-08 09:36:42	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xfc81d8…
09-08 09:34:16	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x08be62…
09-08 09:32:52	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xf159f7…
09-08 09:28:01	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x8c550b…
09-08 09:16:10	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xbd0435…
09-08 09:07:15	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x0273bb…
09-07 20:53:03	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xc7bc82…
09-07 20:52:28	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xb8c12f…
09-07 20:52:24	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x725b2a…
09-07 20:51:34	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x971056…
09-07 20:50:15	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xbe13cc…
09-07 20:49:36	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xa7f845…
09-07 20:45:55	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xe12ab2…
09-07 16:12:09	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x8cd673…
09-07 16:12:06	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x516dcb…
09-07 16:12:04	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x20ff83…
09-07 12:46:03	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x60c756…
09-07 12:04:19	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x58cc6a…
09-07 11:46:49	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xe1321e…
09-07 11:46:48	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x63f156…
09-07 11:46:48	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x03c0e6…
08-31 17:57:12	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	117	2¢	$3	0xea1de6…
08-31 11:54:12	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x47f663…
08-30 18:28:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x37c6c5…
08-30 09:29:28	Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0xb46859…
08-29 17:42:04	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August?	Yes	BUY	526	1¢	$5	0xa20bb4…
08-29 11:59:24	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	500	12¢	$60	0xab6f14…
08-29 11:03:27	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	259	2¢	$4	0x76d6bb…
08-29 08:57:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	151	56¢	$84	0xae6d1e…
08-28 20:25:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	49¢	$26	0x83292d…
08-28 19:04:10	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x661587…
08-28 19:04:03	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x5a93f6…
08-28 19:03:39	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x56dec0…
08-28 19:03:31	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x6fc976…
08-28 19:03:27	Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x1105a1…
08-28 19:03:21	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0x5ed10a…
08-28 19:03:16	Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	No	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0xdf1c40…
08-28 19:03:06	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xd1f690…
08-28 19:03:00	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0xf24412…
08-28 19:02:54	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x9b10ba…
08-28 19:02:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0xc38275…
08-28 19:02:39	Over $200B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x6f7e80…
08-28 19:02:31	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0x0d141c…
08-28 16:14:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	34	48¢	$17	0x5966e0…
08-28 16:12:57	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	No	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0xa7ebab…
08-28 16:12:40	Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?	No	SELL	15	62¢	$9	0x588756…
08-28 14:38:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	63	52¢	$33	0x743fa3…
08-27 06:24:40	Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xe08901…
08-27 04:28:33	Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	45¢	$27	0xab4aac…
08-25 16:44:12	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	BUY	87	37¢	$32	0xcc6f67…
08-25 14:14:21	Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	45¢	$1	0xab485f…