Flustered-Improvement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$145.9K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

6.1%

Resolved

Trades

6,662

lifetime

Volume

$2.10M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$316

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-15 07:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

75% 25% $-146,490

Other

25% 100% +$600

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	313	$341.9K	202,135	174,342	+27,793	open	—	03-21 06:09
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	198	$168.5K	103,000	103,000	+0	open	—	04-13 03:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	66	$130.0K	134,913	134,913	+0	open	—	04-07 23:26
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	42	$83.0K	30,000	53,950	-23,950	open	—	02-01 03:48
netanyahu out by march 31 854	84	$78.3K	45,000	35,000	+10,000	open	—	03-24 20:43
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	151	$72.4K	84,423	15,658	+68,765	open	—	03-01 06:58
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	74	$71.9K	95,000	0	+95,000	open	—	03-24 20:45
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$69.4K	50,000	20,000	+30,000	open	—	04-08 06:12
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	142	$67.0K	85,740	86,976	-1,236	open	—	04-07 23:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	29	$59.9K	64,619	0	+64,619	Yes	$-59,855	05-05 01:32
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	36	$59.7K	72,000	0	+72,000	open	—	02-01 23:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	107	$58.4K	96,958	0	+96,958	Yes	$-58,436	03-08 22:19
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	56	$49.5K	50,099	0	+50,099	open	—	02-05 20:36
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	129	$45.5K	68,698	68,698	+0	open	—	04-07 23:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	73	$43.5K	27,260	30,000	-2,740	open	—	05-09 08:40
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	23	$42.4K	42,925	0	+42,925	open	—	04-22 07:43
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	7	$33.8K	40,000	0	+40,000	open	—	04-21 03:35
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	7	$29.8K	32,000	4,000	+28,000	open	—	04-30 21:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	35	$29.0K	37,660	0	+37,660	Yes	$-29,028	03-01 06:47
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	4	$27.0K	31,553	0	+31,553	open	—	04-10 14:24
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	19	$26.3K	27,104	0	+27,104	open	—	02-02 20:40
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	42	$26.1K	0	29,999	-29,999	open	—	06-09 02:33
ice shooter fired by march 31	183	$22.3K	25,483	0	+25,483	open	—	02-19 04:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$22.1K	22,678	0	+22,678	open	—	06-15 04:38
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	22	$20.7K	30,100	0	+30,100	open	—	04-04 08:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$19.6K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	05-01 01:16
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	10	$19.6K	21,000	0	+21,000	open	—	04-29 06:45
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	62	$18.7K	19,960	0	+19,960	open	—	03-03 15:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	103	$17.4K	14,990	14,990	+0	open	—	02-28 21:34
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	243	$14.3K	23,870	0	+23,870	open	—	02-25 18:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 07:33:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,565	87¢	$2,221	0xc41a80…
06-15 07:32:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	32	87¢	$28	0x3b1e65…
06-15 07:31:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	7,403	87¢	$6,405	0xd36f06…
06-15 05:27:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	117	29¢	$34	0x90ad8e…
06-15 05:27:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x77da48…
06-15 05:27:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	23	29¢	$7	0x5a77a3…
06-15 05:27:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	23	29¢	$7	0x08e319…
06-15 05:27:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x6edc78…
06-15 05:27:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0x577547…
06-15 05:27:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	9	29¢	$2	0x4a3c2a…
06-15 05:26:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x34c85e…
06-15 05:25:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xb004ba…
06-15 05:25:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	187	29¢	$54	0x9382ac…
06-15 05:22:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x714bc9…
06-15 05:17:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0xfe2fe0…
06-15 05:15:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x7bf838…
06-15 05:13:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	11	29¢	$3	0x623596…
06-15 05:12:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	16	29¢	$5	0x8e37ab…
06-15 05:11:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x523167…
06-15 05:02:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,879	29¢	$545	0x09d4bf…
06-15 04:58:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	323	29¢	$94	0xb99720…
06-15 04:58:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x9615c1…
06-15 04:58:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	45	29¢	$13	0x12a846…
06-15 04:43:00	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	49	97¢	$48	0x845f35…
06-15 04:42:34	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	513	97¢	$500	0xc9fb9c…
06-15 04:42:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	290	97¢	$282	0x660c45…
06-15 04:41:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xf998b9…
06-15 04:38:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xd67504…
06-15 04:38:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22,678	98¢	$22,145	0x6d11c9…
06-15 04:28:00	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	112	97¢	$109	0x15c9f4…
06-09 02:33:19	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	9,806	87¢	$8,531	0x183e2f…
06-08 22:41:46	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0xa549e1…
06-08 14:21:15	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xe5453d…
06-08 12:31:12	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x85aaca…
06-08 11:44:33	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	694	87¢	$603	0x747ef7…
06-08 09:51:18	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	42	87¢	$36	0x693345…
06-08 05:40:24	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	841	87¢	$732	0xb4ccf8…
06-08 03:39:51	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0xde3b1b…
06-07 23:59:04	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x97229e…
06-07 21:14:30	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	83	87¢	$72	0xd24c54…
06-07 21:07:22	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	21	87¢	$18	0xa74fe5…
06-07 19:37:27	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	150	87¢	$130	0x90f6ed…
06-07 18:04:37	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x06eab4…
06-07 18:04:09	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	71	87¢	$62	0xb90fcd…
06-07 13:05:57	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	26	87¢	$22	0x96e851…
06-07 08:46:31	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	24	87¢	$21	0x565899…
06-07 07:46:28	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	33	87¢	$29	0x076b27…
06-07 07:34:49	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	2,500	87¢	$2,175	0xdd6b43…
06-07 07:28:25	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	87¢	$870	0x945e8c…
06-07 06:29:00	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	115	87¢	$100	0x7e9c95…
06-06 23:31:27	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	3	87¢	$3	0xc0dfe3…
06-06 14:53:09	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	102	87¢	$89	0x5c6e6d…
06-06 13:01:40	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	36	87¢	$31	0x44444e…
06-06 09:44:10	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x050155…
06-06 09:43:18	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	113	87¢	$99	0x061fec…
06-06 09:01:36	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	4	87¢	$3	0xf704a2…
06-06 06:09:03	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	11	87¢	$10	0x116cef…
06-05 23:31:13	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	182	87¢	$158	0x4ec542…
06-05 19:36:28	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x4ecdaa…
06-05 19:34:51	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	31	87¢	$27	0x615141…
06-05 19:20:18	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	8,333	87¢	$7,250	0xac7c32…
06-05 18:07:04	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0x93b9d7…
06-05 18:06:55	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x0242d7…
06-05 14:36:28	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	23	87¢	$20	0xc1c0ca…
06-05 00:57:18	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	1,125	87¢	$979	0xe51d6a…
06-04 22:01:16	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	26	87¢	$22	0x946736…
06-04 16:59:45	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	36	87¢	$31	0x728b02…
06-04 16:26:43	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	17	87¢	$15	0x1829d1…
06-04 15:01:52	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	500	87¢	$435	0x28f750…
06-04 12:53:55	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	37	87¢	$32	0x3b66e6…
06-04 12:52:39	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$8	0x48b3b6…
06-02 05:39:46	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	3,838	87¢	$3,339	0x11666f…
05-30 08:02:24	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,305	30¢	$391	0x4d916d…
05-15 22:30:48	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3,104	97¢	$3,017	0x2ac436…
05-15 22:28:40	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	80	97¢	$78	0xc76186…
05-15 22:26:48	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0x8f603c…
05-15 22:25:49	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$972	0x8bf6c0…
05-15 22:24:42	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	107	97¢	$104	0x4457ff…
05-15 22:24:32	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	171	97¢	$166	0x9a11ef…
05-15 22:24:00	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0x6dff28…
05-15 22:19:52	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	179	97¢	$174	0xdcf659…
05-15 22:18:09	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0x90bc63…
05-15 22:18:07	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	71	97¢	$69	0x25930c…
05-15 22:16:08	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x40df89…
05-15 22:15:49	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	128	97¢	$124	0x95dc85…
05-15 22:13:53	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0x458102…
05-15 22:13:06	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xed4719…
05-15 22:10:56	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2,454	97¢	$2,387	0x74059a…
05-15 22:10:28	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xc32b70…
05-15 22:07:32	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	353	97¢	$344	0x4aacf5…
05-15 22:06:55	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	674	97¢	$656	0x8fc8be…
05-15 22:06:29	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1,479	97¢	$1,439	0x9929cc…
05-09 09:03:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10,866	56¢	$6,085	0xca9a10…
05-09 09:01:53	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x0d4e3a…
05-09 09:01:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x83aad6…
05-09 09:01:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	996	56¢	$558	0x14a0fd…
05-09 09:01:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	56¢	$4	0xbc9e39…
05-09 09:01:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	56¢	$560	0xc6bfae…
05-09 08:59:57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	56¢	$10	0x6da8ab…
05-09 08:55:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x89009b…