Realized P&L
-$225.4K
Unrealized P&L
-$18.4K
Hit rate
72.7%
Resolved
117
Trades
7,030
lifetime
Volume
$2.36M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$335
Open exposure
$264.8K
7 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-10 19:08
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 53 days
Categories
Politics
68%
65%
-$287,508
Other
31%
80%
+$62,174
Tech
0%
100%
+$20
Sports
0%
0%
-$55
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-10).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -113,816 | -$106,321 | 98¢ | $-111482 | -$5,161 | 05-11 07:11 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | -110,000 | -$94,519 | 97¢ | $-106645 | -$12,126 | 06-09 02:33 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | -28,234 | -$26,262 | 95¢ | $-26752 | -$490 | 05-11 02:33 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | -20,000 | -$16,600 | 94¢ | $-18700 | -$2,100 | 05-16 21:16 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | -6,433 | -$2,128 | 14¢ | $-923 | +$1,205 | 05-09 06:47 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | -2,000 | -$600 | 14¢ | $-270 | +$330 | 05-30 08:02 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +310 | $105 | 12¢ | $39 | -$67 | 04-29 03:59 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 313 | $341.9K | 202,135 | 174,342 | +27,793 | No | +$26,033 | 03-21 06:09 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 198 | $168.5K | 103,000 | 103,000 | +0 | No | +$36,445 | 04-13 03:13 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 66 | $130.0K | 134,913 | 134,913 | +0 | Yes | -$124,095 | 04-07 23:26 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 45 | $106.3K | 0 | 113,816 | -113,816 | open | — | 05-11 07:11 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 178 | $94.5K | 0 | 110,000 | -110,000 | open | — | 06-09 02:33 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 42 | $83.0K | 30,000 | 53,950 | -23,950 | No | +$656 | 02-01 03:48 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 84 | $78.3K | 45,000 | 35,000 | +10,000 | No | +$835 | 03-24 20:43 |
| will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025 | 151 | $72.4K | 84,423 | 15,658 | +68,765 | Yes | +$363 | 03-01 06:58 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 74 | $71.9K | 95,000 | 0 | +95,000 | No | +$23,101 | 03-24 20:45 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 3 | $69.4K | 50,000 | 20,000 | +30,000 | Yes | +$440 | 04-08 06:12 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 142 | $67.0K | 85,740 | 86,976 | -1,236 | Yes | -$59,664 | 04-07 23:25 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 29 | $59.9K | 64,619 | 0 | +64,619 | Yes | -$59,855 | 05-05 01:32 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 36 | $59.7K | 72,000 | 0 | +72,000 | Yes | +$260 | 02-01 23:25 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 107 | $58.4K | 96,958 | 0 | +96,958 | Yes | -$58,436 | 03-08 22:19 |
| will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 56 | $49.5K | 50,099 | 0 | +50,099 | Yes | +$614 | 02-05 20:36 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 30 | 129 | $45.5K | 68,698 | 68,698 | +0 | Yes | -$43,862 | 04-07 23:27 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 77 | $45.4K | 30,000 | 30,000 | +0 | No | -$2,800 | 05-09 08:40 |
| will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365 | 23 | $42.4K | 42,925 | 0 | +42,925 | No | +$477 | 04-22 07:43 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026 | 7 | $33.8K | 40,000 | 0 | +40,000 | No | +$6,200 | 04-21 03:35 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026 | 7 | $29.8K | 32,000 | 4,000 | +28,000 | Yes | -$1,814 | 04-30 21:34 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 35 | $29.0K | 37,660 | 0 | +37,660 | Yes | -$29,028 | 03-01 06:47 |
| trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677 | 4 | $27.0K | 31,553 | 0 | +31,553 | No | +$4,594 | 04-10 14:24 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 19 | $26.3K | 27,104 | 0 | +27,104 | Yes | +$808 | 02-02 20:40 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 2 | $26.3K | 0 | 28,234 | -28,234 | open | — | 05-11 02:33 |
| ice shooter fired by march 31 | 183 | $22.3K | 25,483 | 0 | +25,483 | No | +$3,179 | 02-19 04:43 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | 2 | $22.1K | 22,678 | 0 | +22,678 | Yes | +$534 | 06-15 04:38 |
| will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election | 22 | $20.7K | 30,100 | 0 | +30,100 | No | +$9,431 | 04-04 08:13 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | 2 | $19.6K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | No | +$360 | 05-01 01:16 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | 10 | $19.6K | 21,000 | 0 | +21,000 | No | +$1,390 | 04-29 06:45 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 66 | $19.4K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | Yes | +$570 | 05-11 02:27 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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