Insubstantial-Railway — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$200

Unrealized P&L

-$23

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

749

lifetime

Volume

$150.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$201

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 06-30 17:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

91% 0% $-200

Other

9% — —

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 77 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	No		+0	$-3	99¢	$0	+$3	06-26 01:01
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	No		+57	$26	0¢	$0	$-26	06-27 18:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	13	$18.2K	35,528	35,528	+0	open	—	02-28 07:29
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	4	$11.7K	8,156	8,156	+0	open	—	01-22 19:51
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	41	$11.6K	110,467	110,467	+0	open	—	02-06 21:44
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	8	$9.4K	19,207	19,207	+0	open	—	01-14 23:06
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	3	$9.3K	7,692	7,692	+0	open	—	02-28 06:57
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	7	$8.4K	18,934	16,934	+2,000	open	—	01-31 15:52
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	5	$8.1K	25,689	25,689	+0	open	—	01-24 15:54
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	14	$7.6K	13,317	13,317	+0	open	—	01-14 10:54
iran strike on israel by february 28	10	$5.5K	3,287	3,287	+0	open	—	02-28 20:03
will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in january 2026	10	$5.5K	3,097	3,097	+0	open	—	01-21 20:06
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	23	$4.5K	11,577	11,577	+0	open	—	02-27 13:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	10	$4.3K	13,064	7,064	+6,000	open	—	04-08 20:51
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	10	$4.1K	20,599	20,599	+0	open	—	03-01 18:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	6	$3.7K	7,137	3,209	+3,928	open	—	06-16 01:28
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	8	$3.4K	21,267	9,213	+12,054	open	—	05-14 19:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$3.0K	11,254	11,254	+0	open	—	06-19 12:08
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	94	$3.0K	10,970	10,970	+0	open	—	03-12 19:34
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	1	$2.9K	15,048	0	+15,048	open	—	02-04 19:07
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	2	$2.3K	1,327	1,327	+0	open	—	01-21 14:26
israel strikes iran by january 15 2026	3	$2.2K	1,164	1,164	+0	open	—	01-15 18:17
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	7	$2.0K	685	1,819	-1,134	open	—	05-24 03:47
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	4	$2.0K	3,085	3,085	+0	open	—	05-16 21:11
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	4	$1.7K	7,186	7,186	+0	open	—	01-13 10:35
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	19	$1.6K	96,847	421	+96,426	open	—	05-21 19:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$1.4K	2,470	2,470	+0	open	—	05-29 21:47
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$1.3K	5,355	0	+5,355	open	—	02-07 09:55
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	2	$1.1K	1,961	1,961	+0	open	—	01-15 13:08
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	18	$1.0K	10,903	0	+10,903	open	—	01-21 15:32
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	33	$1.0K	12,075	0	+12,075	open	—	04-15 21:33
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	1	$1000	1,001	0	+1,001	open	—	02-28 07:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 22:46:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 6	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xcb8dd0…
06-30 22:32:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 6	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x624b4e…
06-30 22:32:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 6	No	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x575bc0…
06-30 22:31:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	BUY	43	15¢	$6	0x156b70…
06-30 22:31:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xd3f4b0…
06-30 22:29:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	BUY	118	15¢	$18	0xa2981d…
06-30 22:29:58	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0x3388ec…
06-30 22:21:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 3	No	BUY	58	45¢	$26	0xba398a…
06-30 22:20:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	BUY	54	48¢	$26	0xf8e25a…
06-30 22:20:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	33	79¢	$26	0xfdc5c4…
06-30 22:04:35	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xbf78e9…
06-30 22:01:01	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x564b55…
06-30 21:17:26	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xbb3b42…
06-30 21:17:25	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0xb55242…
06-30 20:42:13	wti up or down on june 30 2026	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x7b9602…
06-30 20:41:47	wti up or down on june 30 2026	Down	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xef5231…
06-30 20:41:38	wti up or down on june 30 2026	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xee6984…
06-30 20:41:35	wti up or down on june 30 2026	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xbe43d6…
06-30 20:32:13	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	SELL	191	80¢	$152	0x9e36f9…
06-30 20:20:14	wti up or down on june 30 2026	Down	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x56f234…
06-30 20:20:04	wti up or down on june 30 2026	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3c6c53…
06-30 20:18:43	nvda above 200 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	166	3¢	$5	0x7cc1be…
06-30 20:18:38	nvda above 200 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	610	3¢	$18	0x4d94f9…
06-30 20:03:59	nvda above 200 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	80	3¢	$2	0x7f9a4f…
06-30 20:01:58	nvda above 200 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x0fdb3a…
06-30 20:01:19	nvda close above 200 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	408	6¢	$24	0xa95ed5…
06-30 20:01:10	nvda close above 200 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x2ecc2d…
06-30 20:01:08	nvda close above 200 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x78b1c8…
06-30 20:01:08	nvda close above 200 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x6c61e8…
06-30 19:57:29	nvda close above 200 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0xd7ba46…
06-30 19:21:20	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	SELL	309	80¢	$248	0xb99f2f…
06-30 17:47:25	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 3 2026	No	BUY	1,167	2¢	$26	0xf6c4f7…
06-30 17:47:25	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 3 2026	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xd7ba06…
06-30 17:47:23	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 3 2026	No	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xcfe7d9…
06-30 16:26:01	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	SELL	13	52¢	$7	0xb0aaa6…
06-30 16:24:05	will xauusd dip to 3900 in june 2026	No	SELL	47	99¢	$47	0xe0521b…
06-30 16:20:47	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	SELL	29	53¢	$16	0x0d006d…
06-30 16:08:41	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	14	53¢	$8	0x46b2e1…
06-30 16:04:53	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x2e48d7…
06-30 16:04:44	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	31	53¢	$17	0xa0aa0e…
06-30 15:17:52	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	No	BUY	78	6¢	$5	0x3f3e47…
06-30 15:09:02	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	No	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x4ae2e8…
06-30 14:10:22	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x0d07c9…
06-30 14:08:34	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	No	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x36ac3c…
06-30 14:08:34	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	No	BUY	65	6¢	$4	0x22eba7…
06-30 13:55:16	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	96	27¢	$26	0x664bcd…
06-30 12:24:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	171	28¢	$48	0x7dfaaa…
06-30 12:23:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	15	28¢	$4	0x49d482…
06-30 12:16:10	wti up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	113	23¢	$26	0x5cf3f9…
06-30 11:57:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	52	50¢	$26	0x60a3c3…
06-30 11:50:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	43	61¢	$26	0xdf4661…
06-30 11:32:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	48	57¢	$27	0xc05667…
06-30 11:03:08	spx opens up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	217	12¢	$26	0xff8573…
06-30 09:28:28	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	No	BUY	54	48¢	$26	0xa7b96b…
06-30 03:58:40	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	45	48¢	$22	0x2fa3fc…
06-30 03:53:37	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0xfbcfec…
06-30 01:16:26	will xauusd dip to 3900 in june 2026	No	BUY	47	55¢	$26	0xb72d3f…
06-29 23:34:22	spx up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	53	49¢	$26	0x7887b1…
06-29 20:52:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	12	32¢	$4	0xce891a…
06-29 20:43:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	47	34¢	$16	0x22d76f…
06-29 20:41:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	36	66¢	$24	0x70568f…
06-29 20:10:35	xagusd up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xadc13c…
06-29 20:10:35	xagusd up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5dfde7…
06-29 20:10:35	xagusd up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x0ac14b…
06-29 20:00:02	nflx up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	48	54¢	$26	0x793879…
06-29 19:18:41	xagusd up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xb939ea…
06-29 16:18:38	spy closes above 730 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xb2a8d4…
06-29 16:17:58	spy closes above 730 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x729907…
06-29 16:17:53	spy closes above 730 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x40198f…
06-29 16:17:50	spy closes above 730 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0xcb3036…
06-29 16:17:47	spy closes above 730 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0xf3125e…
06-29 16:05:13	spy closes above 730 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	110	4¢	$4	0x8acf4b…
06-29 16:05:13	spy closes above 730 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	110	4¢	$4	0x620178…
06-29 16:05:11	spy closes above 730 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	110	4¢	$4	0x6a6b6a…
06-29 16:04:17	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x0d0c30…
06-29 15:26:26	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x2738e6…
06-29 15:06:59	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x7f9162…
06-29 15:04:46	djia up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	104	25¢	$26	0x421092…
06-29 14:30:58	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	144	18¢	$26	0x3f1d60…
06-29 14:19:08	wti up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	62	42¢	$26	0xd07041…
06-29 14:07:35	googl close above 340 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	440	5¢	$22	0x2bf7e2…
06-29 14:01:05	googl close above 340 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	80	5¢	$4	0xa46490…
06-29 13:52:02	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	433	6¢	$26	0x3856d5…
06-29 13:38:07	amzn close above 235 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x11b662…
06-29 13:38:05	amzn close above 235 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	110	20¢	$22	0xd5b69a…
06-29 13:35:53	googl close above 345 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	79	33¢	$26	0x6e0a10…
06-29 12:23:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	186	14¢	$26	0xe18f52…
06-29 11:32:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	48	54¢	$26	0x827631…
06-29 06:28:26	xagusd up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x249476…
06-29 06:28:16	xagusd up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x6eb6d1…
06-29 06:27:58	xagusd up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xfac351…
06-29 06:27:40	xagusd up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x17639c…
06-29 06:27:22	xagusd up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xbeb8dd…
06-29 03:53:08	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x033d75…
06-29 03:46:38	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x8726d9…
06-29 00:03:53	Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x5fb1e1…
06-28 20:29:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	32	44¢	$14	0x954cc8…
06-28 20:28:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	27	44¢	$12	0x8154d6…
06-28 20:23:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	36	72¢	$26	0xe7a406…
06-28 16:34:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	17	73¢	$12	0x6ae415…