Elaborate-Watercress — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$201

Unrealized P&L

-$477

Hit rate

6.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.04K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$178

9 positions

First seen

2026-05-01

last 07-13 15:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Politics

53% 0% -$192

Other

38% 8% +$13

Crypto

8% 0% -$11

Sports

1% 0% -$12

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-13).

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	+1,814	$200	4¢	$73	-$128	07-03 20:28
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	+1,534	$200	3¢	$40	-$160	07-03 09:15
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+337	$50	6¢	$20	-$30	06-30 14:29
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+963	$100	2¢	$19	-$81	06-30 14:17
russia coup attempt in 2026	Yes	+443	$50	3¢	$11	-$39	07-01 19:58
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$35	1¢	$7	-$29	05-05 01:35
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+29	$5	16¢	$5	$0	05-01 11:40
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+108	$10	2¢	$2	-$8	05-25 18:46
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+83	$5	2¢	$2	-$3	05-01 11:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	5	$200	1,814	0	+1,814	open	—	07-03 20:28
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	4	$200	1,534	0	+1,534	open	—	07-03 09:15
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	3	$140	5,537	0	+5,537	No	-$140	05-25 18:38
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	4	$100	963	0	+963	open	—	06-30 14:17
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	23	$66	2,051	1,773	+278	No	-$20	05-17 12:12
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	9	$50	443	0	+443	open	—	07-01 19:58
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	3	$50	337	0	+337	open	—	06-30 14:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	6	$44	48	38	+10	Up	-$6	05-01 12:09
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$35	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-05 01:35
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	1	$27	1,056	0	+1,056	No	-$27	07-13 15:15
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	1	$23	92	0	+92	Yes	+$69	07-13 15:18
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	2	$10	108	0	+108	open	—	05-25 18:46
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$10	52	0	+52	No	-$10	06-30 14:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$10	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$10	05-09 19:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$6	30	0	+30	No	-$6	05-01 12:47
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	1	$5	192	0	+192	No	-$5	05-01 11:38
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	1	$5	192	0	+192	No	-$5	05-01 11:47
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1	$5	200	0	+200	No	-$5	05-02 11:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	1	$5	20	0	+20	No	-$5	05-01 12:20
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?	1	$5	154	0	+154	No	-$5	05-01 11:43
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	1	$5	29	0	+29	open	—	05-01 11:40
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	1	$5	59	0	+59	No	-$5	05-01 13:10
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$5	83	0	+83	open	—	05-01 11:39
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	1	$5	21	0	+21	$80k	-$5	05-01 12:06
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	2	$5	27	27	+0	open	—	06-30 14:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$2	11	0	+11	No	-$2	05-01 12:15
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026?	1	$2	44	0	+44	No	-$2	05-01 11:54
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$2	22	0	+22	No	-$2	05-01 19:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	1	$1	90	0	+90	No	-$1	05-01 18:52
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	1	$1	70	0	+70	No	-$1	05-08 12:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 15:18:59	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	92	25¢	$23	0x2b74c4…
07-13 15:15:22	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,056	3¢	$27	0x34e9c8…
07-03 20:28:17	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	BUY	985	10¢	$98	0xf16410…
07-03 09:15:34	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	834	12¢	$100	0x3f7295…
07-01 19:58:40	russia coup attempt in 2026	Yes	BUY	37	12¢	$4	0xf0a34f…
07-01 14:43:37	russia coup attempt in 2026	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x689332…
07-01 10:47:40	russia coup attempt in 2026	Yes	BUY	91	12¢	$11	0x62f5e8…
06-30 20:22:16	russia coup attempt in 2026	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xa31be7…
06-30 20:03:01	russia coup attempt in 2026	Yes	BUY	55	12¢	$7	0x9ca491…
06-30 14:35:49	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0xcb7995…
06-30 14:32:28	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	SELL	27	7¢	$2	0xd52b81…
06-30 14:29:52	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0xbd4cc9…
06-30 14:29:05	Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	12¢	$3	0x51c065…
06-30 14:17:50	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	15¢	$10	0xf866b8…
06-30 14:17:01	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x31d4bf…
06-27 16:09:43	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	380	14¢	$53	0x54f194…
06-27 16:07:47	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	120	14¢	$17	0xa74785…
06-27 15:30:44	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	14¢	$42	0xdc2f8e…
06-27 15:24:07	russia coup attempt in 2026	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0xb1053c…
05-25 18:48:55	Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xc5ff98…
05-25 18:46:13	Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	9¢	$8	0x772ba8…
05-25 18:39:37	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	BUY	230	13¢	$30	0xece192…
05-25 18:38:04	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$15	0x3fa2b1…
05-25 18:37:14	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	385	9¢	$35	0x51f5e4…
05-17 12:12:18	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	2¢	$4	0x7241e0…
05-17 11:56:19	Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x57cffa…
05-15 11:47:46	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	293	1¢	$4	0x148b6b…
05-15 10:32:50	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	517	1¢	$7	0x16f085…
05-14 16:58:14	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	231	1¢	$3	0x2c2e97…
05-13 22:20:23	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	462	1¢	$6	0x0a56eb…
05-13 15:51:22	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	1¢	$1	0xee6184…
05-13 13:35:25	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	227	1¢	$3	0x752e69…
05-13 08:03:12	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0x39006e…
05-13 07:23:52	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	2¢	$5	0xe68eaf…
05-13 07:09:55	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	2¢	$1	0xe1ab73…
05-13 06:43:37	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x27df62…
05-13 00:46:10	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	204	2¢	$4	0xd1124e…
05-12 15:29:02	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x163a4d…
05-12 15:04:35	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x18e461…
05-12 14:55:12	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0x3778cf…
05-12 14:35:38	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x7baa48…
05-12 10:00:16	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x806e0a…
05-09 19:49:05	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	12¢	$60	0x127656…
05-09 19:46:49	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x7406f9…
05-09 19:15:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xf51738…
05-09 09:00:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x5c727a…
05-08 12:23:22	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x5e1e30…
05-08 12:23:11	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x9af972…
05-08 12:22:50	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	70	2¢	$1	0x724aca…
05-08 11:56:56	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	2¢	$1	0x7580d0…
05-05 01:35:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x260490…
05-04 04:13:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	4¢	$2	0xad2377…
05-03 21:02:12	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	319	2¢	$7	0x775d1c…
05-03 18:57:06	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x754c4d…
05-03 14:28:46	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	298	0¢	$1	0x265735…
05-03 12:23:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0xff9b83…
05-03 10:20:42	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x30cfd9…
05-02 19:31:46	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	309	2¢	$7	0x4bab07…
05-02 19:22:30	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	505	0¢	$1	0xf96921…
05-02 19:21:52	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0xd94039…
05-02 19:03:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	918	4¢	$32	0x87d144…
05-02 18:58:54	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	409	11¢	$45	0x4da8e6…
05-02 11:41:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xc76665…
05-02 11:28:54	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,442	3¢	$93	0x160086…
05-01 19:13:32	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0x4a48ec…
05-01 19:07:32	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xdfdcf4…
05-01 18:52:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	BUY	90	2¢	$1	0xf22008…
05-01 13:11:32	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	21¢	$5	0x9cda1e…
05-01 13:10:40	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	8¢	$5	0xccda9e…
05-01 12:47:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0xa46b50…
05-01 12:38:02	Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2	Mayweather	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xfef3d1…
05-01 12:29:50	Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xcfa796…
05-01 12:29:16	Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc7b54f…
05-01 12:20:36	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x564c39…
05-01 12:15:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xc9662a…
05-01 12:09:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe3debc…
05-01 12:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	38	50¢	$19	0x645c98…
05-01 12:08:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x0c1313…
05-01 12:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x5c76d4…
05-01 12:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x699114…
05-01 12:07:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x246317…
05-01 12:06:04	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x6c6cdd…
05-01 11:54:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	5¢	$2	0x9a712c…
05-01 11:54:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x6a7ad9…
05-01 11:53:34	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xda1666…
05-01 11:51:02	EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x62dcd4…
05-01 11:48:14	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xd0f0ac…
05-01 11:47:04	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	192	3¢	$5	0x144e6e…
05-01 11:43:04	NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	3¢	$5	0xb947d5…
05-01 11:40:30	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x3411d6…
05-01 11:39:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x1d0ab6…
05-01 11:38:46	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	192	3¢	$5	0x391ea3…
05-01 11:33:54	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xa86163…
05-01 11:29:00	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	365	3¢	$10	0x4909b2…
05-01 10:54:16	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,095	3¢	$32	0xdffb69…