Dearest-Agenda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$521.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$87.7K

Hit rate

66.5%

Resolved

1,854

Trades

135,680

lifetime

Volume

$42.9M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$316

Open exposure

$1.16M

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-04 16:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 271 days

Categories

Politics

71% 52% +$323,234

Other

27% 58% +$307,530

Crypto

1% 80% +$11,819

Sports

0% 47% -$89,107

Tech

0% 50% -$49,663

Pop-Culture

0% 62% +$18,004

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 476 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+724,402	$525,220	90¢	$648.3K	+$123,119	10-28 19:59
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+108,138	$73,020	98¢	$106.0K	+$33,009	11-04 04:19
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+718,649	$174,866	11¢	$75.5K	-$99,408	10-16 01:42
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+84,419	$49,451	69¢	$58.0K	+$8,503	10-15 12:32
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+31,954	$29,363	95¢	$30.5K	+$1,120	10-14 15:40
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	+25,349	$24,129	98¢	$24.9K	+$790	10-12 22:08
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	No	+27,138	$18,450	91¢	$24.7K	+$6,246	10-09 10:59
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-25,188	-$25,921	96¢	$-24307	+$1,614	10-25 23:42
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	+16,809	$15,364	95¢	$16.0K	+$604	10-05 17:02
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+15,568	$10,673	89¢	$13.9K	+$3,190	10-15 14:53
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+13,435	$7,791	94¢	$12.7K	+$4,905	10-15 16:43
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+12,908	$10,794	97¢	$12.5K	+$1,740	09-29 18:35
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+11,311	$11,243	99¢	$11.2K	+$6	10-15 04:24
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+13,822	$14,399	67¢	$9.3K	-$5,139	11-04 17:31
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+9,372	$9,086	98¢	$9.2K	+$131	09-26 01:33
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	+9,571	$9,166	95¢	$9.1K	-$63	10-15 09:16
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	+8,938	$7,652	98¢	$8.8K	+$1,099	10-28 19:27
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+8,717	$8,257	97¢	$8.4K	+$186	09-14 22:08
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	-8,479	-$8,244	97¢	$-8220	+$24	10-28 19:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+6,416	$4,370	92¢	$5.9K	+$1,520	10-10 15:16
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+30,004	$6,273	19¢	$5.8K	-$497	11-02 03:32
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+32,590	$5,845	17¢	$5.6K	-$289	11-03 08:06
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+5,831	$5,102	91¢	$5.3K	+$224	09-13 03:56
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+316,228	$632	2¢	$4.9K	+$4,269	08-28 16:53
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	-4,453	-$4,365	98¢	$-4375	-$10	10-28 19:41
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+9,911	$3,782	40¢	$4.0K	+$207	10-11 18:35
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+10,897	$3,701	31¢	$3.4K	-$285	10-16 14:38
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	+3,367	$2,524	100¢	$3.4K	+$830	10-07 15:51
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+3,077	$3,055	100¢	$3.1K	+$8	10-09 15:55
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+3,136	$2,976	95¢	$3.0K	$0	09-09 07:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	319	$1.31M	1,069,485	280,902	+788,583	No	+$1,851	03-04 18:27
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1,923	$1.14M	2,522,986	333	+2,522,653	Yes	+$170,317	02-28 07:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	790	$1.01M	1,320,895	222	+1,320,673	Yes	+$50,616	04-07 23:51
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	929	$937.8K	1,358,021	3,110	+1,354,911	Yes	+$81,691	03-04 00:35
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2,094	$810.3K	1,473,085	12,222	+1,460,863	Yes	-$10,743	02-02 23:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	891	$775.2K	1,488,159	45,108	+1,443,051	open	—	10-28 19:59
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	89	$685.8K	690,830	0	+690,830	No	+$2,610	01-03 20:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	599	$683.4K	1,060,551	4,888	+1,055,663	Yes	+$52,870	04-09 16:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	875	$678.4K	1,010,487	2,080	+1,008,406	No	-$331,896	04-30 23:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	954	$536.9K	554,465	118,826	+435,639	Yes	+$34,386	03-04 18:34
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	674	$517.3K	692,519	74,776	+617,743	Yes	-$33,317	04-09 00:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,558	$476.8K	1,028,966	11,811	+1,017,155	No	+$18,228	06-01 00:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1,252	$474.5K	935,076	0	+935,076	No	-$73,123	04-22 21:11
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	558	$465.1K	596,089	323,783	+272,305	No	+$21,005	03-04 16:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	717	$454.1K	1,076,802	1,350	+1,075,452	Yes	+$208,192	06-17 18:34
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	84	$391.1K	567,179	0	+567,179	No	+$1,420	01-04 00:57
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1,360	$387.1K	853,078	0	+853,078	No	-$8,268	02-01 04:52
netanyahu out by march 31 854	347	$384.6K	538,806	76,189	+462,617	No	+$14,111	04-01 18:51
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	776	$371.4K	577,331	52,056	+525,274	No	+$11,856	04-29 16:49
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	251	$371.3K	402,421	0	+402,421	No	+$1,645	05-01 00:01
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	906	$353.4K	804,169	0	+804,169	No	+$837	02-01 05:29
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	640	$352.5K	499,939	0	+499,939	No	+$28,907	04-16 04:06
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	19	$343.3K	291,104	55,555	+235,549	No	+$741	01-28 15:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	856	$316.8K	592,096	4,900	+587,196	No	-$3,330	03-31 22:09
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	289	$307.4K	720,272	24,932	+695,339	No	-$26,961	06-24 02:04
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	897	$303.1K	522,164	10,198	+511,966	Yes	+$29,780	03-11 12:23
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	426	$301.9K	595,841	134,378	+461,462	No	-$12,170	02-01 05:48
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	699	$298.9K	481,307	3,081	+478,226	Yes	+$42,946	04-24 10:59
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	558	$286.1K	603,831	0	+603,831	No	-$100,477	07-01 02:32
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	781	$285.7K	238,772	269,680	-30,907	No	+$12,842	10-25 23:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 17:31:51	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x1178f9…
11-04 17:31:24	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	222	67¢	$149	0x44ce4d…
11-04 16:47:09	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	216	66¢	$143	0x5ddb26…
11-04 14:15:34	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	458	0¢	$2	0x4ed0b9…
11-04 07:37:10	Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seat in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	165	98¢	$161	0xbc608f…
11-04 07:37:10	Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seat in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x41130a…
11-04 07:26:15	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	97	12¢	$12	0xa8f636…
11-04 06:52:12	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	12¢	$6	0xd76c4a…
11-04 06:43:54	Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seat in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	24	97¢	$23	0x9232a8…
11-04 06:43:45	Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seat in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x87532d…
11-04 06:21:04	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x45f7ed…
11-04 06:01:52	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0xdb1446…
11-04 04:57:10	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	222	3¢	$7	0x702f22…
11-04 04:19:21	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	233	63¢	$147	0xca53f4…
11-04 04:19:21	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	44	63¢	$28	0xbf8668…
11-04 04:19:21	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0xa146b7…
11-04 04:19:21	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0x4a91e4…
11-04 04:19:19	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0x9c9e1e…
11-04 04:19:15	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	283	49¢	$139	0xe4b769…
11-04 04:19:13	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	50	49¢	$24	0xad55f3…
11-04 04:19:13	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	222	47¢	$105	0x80ccbb…
11-04 02:45:25	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	512	46¢	$236	0xb06ca6…
11-04 02:45:25	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	192	46¢	$88	0x44116e…
11-04 02:45:24	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xdcadef…
11-04 02:45:24	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	40	46¢	$19	0x986a8d…
11-04 02:45:24	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	45	46¢	$21	0x95dcfc…
11-04 02:45:13	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	333	45¢	$150	0x0ea5b8…
11-04 02:45:10	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	40	44¢	$18	0xe19e80…
11-04 02:45:10	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	142	44¢	$63	0xbf62db…
11-04 02:45:10	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	191	44¢	$85	0x613a59…
11-04 02:45:09	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0xc5180c…
11-04 02:45:07	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0xd3e945…
11-04 02:45:07	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0xbd0738…
11-04 02:45:07	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0xb31f64…
11-04 02:45:07	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x8c8d4d…
11-04 02:45:07	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	68	44¢	$30	0x7c2aab…
11-04 02:45:07	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	86	44¢	$38	0x64894d…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0xf45fee…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	39	44¢	$17	0xe74c12…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	187	44¢	$82	0x8d136f…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x8c6850…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	10	44¢	$5	0x8b9619…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x6fbdaf…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x6f10c3…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x65c385…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x643dcf…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x45177d…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x435f37…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0x3a285e…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x2964e7…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x1ca202…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x14477d…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x0ceb1f…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x0a8f16…
11-04 02:45:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x0a3038…
11-04 02:45:01	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0xf7f620…
11-04 02:45:01	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	44¢	$438	0xf16131…
11-04 02:45:01	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	29	44¢	$13	0x5c143c…
11-04 02:45:00	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	96	44¢	$42	0x943b53…
11-04 02:45:00	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x4a66bd…
11-04 02:45:00	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x4a33fb…
11-04 02:45:00	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	15	44¢	$6	0x2e209b…
11-04 02:45:00	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	46	44¢	$20	0x053303…
11-04 02:44:52	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	222	43¢	$96	0x4c2698…
11-04 02:43:27	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	215	43¢	$93	0xe80e00…
11-04 02:42:51	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	7	43¢	$3	0xb7cfd2…
11-04 01:04:34	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	SELL	660	99¢	$652	0x0c4f7a…
11-04 01:04:19	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xc5248b…
11-04 00:59:28	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	253	96¢	$243	0x1cccc4…
11-04 00:47:15	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	96¢	$69	0x4859b8…
11-04 00:40:27	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xdf86d1…
11-04 00:40:27	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	154	96¢	$148	0xd92c30…
11-04 00:30:54	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	96¢	$53	0xdba387…
11-04 00:30:48	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	173	96¢	$166	0x6016be…
11-04 00:19:34	Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	158	68¢	$108	0xe662a6…
11-04 00:10:49	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x8a5131…
11-04 00:03:18	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	433	81¢	$351	0x5ae64a…
11-04 00:02:06	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x1f0ec8…
11-03 23:51:10	Will Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	SELL	312	78¢	$243	0x0d6052…
11-03 23:50:31	Will Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0xf13086…
11-03 23:47:13	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	246	96¢	$236	0x0ef128…
11-03 23:42:33	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	No	SELL	514	98¢	$506	0x347067…
11-03 23:34:33	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	222	74¢	$164	0xe9e270…
11-03 23:34:18	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xbc5c0c…
11-03 23:33:10	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	222	74¢	$164	0x37faf1…
11-03 23:32:03	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xb76bf2…
11-03 23:32:03	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x16e980…
11-03 23:30:27	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0x797e33…
11-03 23:30:03	Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	222	85¢	$189	0x665892…
11-03 23:30:00	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	73¢	$20	0xbfa043…
11-03 23:29:52	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	73¢	$15	0x69e77c…
11-03 23:29:34	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x7be025…
11-03 23:29:13	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0xbef3ba…
11-03 23:29:07	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	126	73¢	$92	0xc7d122…
11-03 23:29:00	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	73¢	$25	0x7273f2…
11-03 23:29:00	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	37	73¢	$27	0x679b67…
11-03 23:28:25	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	76	73¢	$56	0x3fe9ad…
11-03 23:27:58	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	81	73¢	$59	0xae32a9…
11-03 23:27:40	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0x9bed92…
11-03 23:27:40	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x138e6b…