Dearest-Agenda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$478.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$38.2K

Hit rate

66.5%

Resolved

1,785

Trades

135,159

lifetime

Volume

$42.8M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$317

Open exposure

$1.23M

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-01 15:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 269 days

Categories

Politics

71% 51% +$280,416

Other

27% 58% +$306,489

Crypto

1% 80% +$11,819

Sports

0% 47% -$89,107

Tech

0% 50% -$49,663

Pop-Culture

0% 62% +$18,004

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 476 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+724,402	$525,220	82¢	$597.6K	+$72,411	10-28 19:59
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+718,649	$174,866	18¢	$125.8K	-$49,102	10-16 01:42
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+125,105	$80,446	44¢	$54.5K	-$25,963	11-01 15:11
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+84,419	$49,451	62¢	$52.2K	+$2,720	10-15 12:32
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+45,020	$25,286	74¢	$33.1K	+$7,804	11-01 04:00
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+31,954	$29,363	94¢	$30.1K	+$753	10-14 15:40
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	+25,349	$24,129	97¢	$24.7K	+$549	10-12 22:08
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-25,188	-$25,921	96¢	$-24055	+$1,866	10-25 23:42
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	No	+27,138	$18,450	88¢	$24.0K	+$5,567	10-09 10:59
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	-24,569	-$25,604	94¢	$-23218	+$2,386	10-25 23:30
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+32,233	$19,109	70¢	$22.7K	+$3,616	10-30 03:41
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+23,420	$16,978	94¢	$22.1K	+$5,154	10-25 23:30
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	+16,809	$15,364	95¢	$16.0K	+$604	10-05 17:02
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	+16,093	$15,826	99¢	$15.9K	+$114	11-01 14:53
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+15,568	$10,673	84¢	$13.1K	+$2,420	10-15 14:53
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+12,908	$10,794	97¢	$12.5K	+$1,708	09-29 18:35
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+13,435	$7,791	92¢	$12.4K	+$4,569	10-15 16:43
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+16,331	$16,039	70¢	$11.5K	-$4,525	11-01 11:27
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+11,311	$11,243	99¢	$11.2K	-$11	10-15 04:24
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	+16,372	$10,277	68¢	$11.2K	+$938	10-30 04:48
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+14,037	$7,932	72¢	$10.2K	+$2,245	10-30 16:14
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	+15,401	$11,702	64¢	$9.9K	-$1,768	10-11 20:44
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+13,832	$8,862	70¢	$9.8K	+$890	10-14 11:43
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+9,372	$9,086	98¢	$9.2K	+$127	09-26 01:33
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	+8,932	$8,813	99¢	$8.9K	+$69	10-14 02:09
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	+9,571	$9,166	93¢	$8.9K	-$288	10-15 09:16
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	+8,938	$7,652	98¢	$8.8K	+$1,121	10-28 19:27
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	+11,545	$6,358	74¢	$8.5K	+$2,128	11-01 04:01
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+8,717	$8,257	96¢	$8.4K	+$107	09-14 22:08
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	-8,479	-$8,244	97¢	$-8220	+$24	10-28 19:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	319	$1.31M	1,069,485	280,902	+788,583	No	+$1,851	03-04 18:27
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1,923	$1.14M	2,522,986	333	+2,522,653	Yes	+$170,317	02-28 07:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	790	$1.01M	1,320,895	222	+1,320,673	Yes	+$50,616	04-07 23:51
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	929	$937.8K	1,358,021	3,110	+1,354,911	Yes	+$81,691	03-04 00:35
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2,094	$810.3K	1,473,085	12,222	+1,460,863	Yes	-$10,743	02-02 23:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	891	$775.2K	1,488,159	45,108	+1,443,051	open	—	10-28 19:59
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	89	$685.8K	690,830	0	+690,830	No	+$2,610	01-03 20:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	599	$683.4K	1,060,551	4,888	+1,055,663	Yes	+$52,870	04-09 16:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	875	$678.4K	1,010,487	2,080	+1,008,406	No	-$331,896	04-30 23:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	954	$536.9K	554,465	118,826	+435,639	Yes	+$34,386	03-04 18:34
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	674	$517.3K	692,519	74,776	+617,743	Yes	-$33,317	04-09 00:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,558	$476.8K	1,028,966	11,811	+1,017,155	No	+$18,228	06-01 00:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1,252	$474.5K	935,076	0	+935,076	No	-$73,123	04-22 21:11
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	558	$465.1K	596,089	323,783	+272,305	No	+$21,005	03-04 16:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	717	$454.1K	1,076,802	1,350	+1,075,452	Yes	+$208,192	06-17 18:34
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	84	$391.1K	567,179	0	+567,179	No	+$1,420	01-04 00:57
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1,360	$387.1K	853,078	0	+853,078	No	-$8,268	02-01 04:52
netanyahu out by march 31 854	347	$384.6K	538,806	76,189	+462,617	No	+$14,111	04-01 18:51
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	776	$371.4K	577,331	52,056	+525,274	No	+$11,856	04-29 16:49
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	251	$371.3K	402,421	0	+402,421	No	+$1,645	05-01 00:01
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	906	$353.4K	804,169	0	+804,169	No	+$837	02-01 05:29
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	640	$352.5K	499,939	0	+499,939	No	+$28,907	04-16 04:06
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	19	$343.3K	291,104	55,555	+235,549	No	+$741	01-28 15:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	856	$316.8K	592,096	4,900	+587,196	No	-$3,330	03-31 22:09
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	289	$307.4K	720,272	24,932	+695,339	No	-$26,961	06-24 02:04
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	897	$303.1K	522,164	10,198	+511,966	Yes	+$29,780	03-11 12:23
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	426	$301.9K	595,841	134,378	+461,462	No	-$12,170	02-01 05:48
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	699	$298.9K	481,307	3,081	+478,226	Yes	+$42,946	04-24 10:59
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	558	$286.1K	603,831	0	+603,831	No	-$100,477	07-01 02:32
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	781	$285.7K	238,772	269,680	-30,907	No	+$12,842	10-25 23:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 17:24:40	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xebd073…
11-01 17:21:49	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x8b018b…
11-01 17:21:39	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x96bb94…
11-01 17:21:39	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0x394e69…
11-01 17:15:07	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0xbffc23…
11-01 17:09:10	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	70¢	$25	0x6b4567…
11-01 17:08:54	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x9e0aaa…
11-01 15:11:57	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	117	44¢	$51	0xa99c51…
11-01 14:53:49	Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x7e869a…
11-01 14:36:46	Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x95ab14…
11-01 12:35:49	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	222	44¢	$98	0x18e866…
11-01 11:27:03	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	193	71¢	$137	0x5cc057…
11-01 11:22:21	Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x3ac810…
11-01 11:12:18	Will Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	SELL	11	72¢	$8	0x34ee03…
11-01 11:12:16	Will Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	SELL	22	72¢	$16	0x888d3a…
11-01 09:39:04	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	29	71¢	$21	0xe5030a…
11-01 05:35:06	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	2,222	43¢	$955	0x7b5ad4…
11-01 05:23:12	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	3,345	2¢	$54	0xd720a5…
11-01 05:05:31	Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	SELL	261	99¢	$259	0x87eed3…
11-01 04:46:39	Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	858	2¢	$20	0x2f305f…
11-01 04:46:28	Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	333	3¢	$9	0x7176bd…
11-01 04:46:24	Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	849	3¢	$25	0x156f49…
11-01 04:08:37	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	518	69¢	$358	0x21ed85…
11-01 04:02:10	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	2,754	4¢	$110	0x99f5ef…
11-01 04:01:25	Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	93	73¢	$68	0x06c3b5…
11-01 04:00:55	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	340	73¢	$248	0xa31e54…
11-01 04:00:43	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	333	73¢	$243	0xa95297…
11-01 03:59:52	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	500	42¢	$210	0xfc1729…
11-01 03:59:46	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	86	42¢	$36	0x265686…
11-01 03:21:55	Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	SELL	60	98¢	$59	0x1f0a6b…
11-01 03:21:51	Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	SELL	1,047	98¢	$1,030	0xf1cdf4…
11-01 00:18:37	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	387	94¢	$364	0x470530…
10-31 23:57:21	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	SELL	222	96¢	$213	0x139372…
10-31 23:57:15	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	95¢	$82	0x23ffdd…
10-31 23:37:40	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	191	10¢	$19	0xe1d956…
10-31 23:32:31	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	653	94¢	$614	0xbc1e5d…
10-31 22:24:49	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	95¢	$120	0x85df60…
10-31 22:24:13	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xff10aa…
10-31 22:01:40	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	75¢	$30	0x1397bb…
10-31 21:25:24	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	94¢	$100	0xa97e52…
10-31 21:03:43	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xd37a27…
10-31 20:26:10	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x0aa818…
10-31 19:45:07	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$2	0xc0f89c…
10-31 19:07:15	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	194	11¢	$21	0x79b17e…
10-31 19:07:12	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	11¢	$7	0x63b40e…
10-31 19:06:03	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,967	0¢	$20	0x768ae3…
10-31 16:17:10	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	442	93¢	$411	0x48faba…
10-31 16:05:57	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0xf82736…
10-31 15:57:24	Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	148	68¢	$101	0x57644c…
10-31 12:46:28	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xc5bb13…
10-31 12:21:19	Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	222	74¢	$164	0x2fb5e7…
10-31 12:18:12	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	323	93¢	$300	0xe0a6a2…
10-31 12:18:00	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	108	93¢	$100	0xdb24ea…
10-31 12:10:33	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	222	74¢	$164	0x95a10a…
10-31 12:01:40	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	No	SELL	356	94¢	$335	0x90fea0…
10-31 12:01:33	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	No	SELL	25	94¢	$24	0xe2d14b…
10-31 12:01:33	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	SELL	222	94¢	$210	0x14f6bb…
10-31 10:51:18	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	222	73¢	$162	0x84d09c…
10-31 07:57:39	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0x08fd8d…
10-31 06:21:03	Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	222	73¢	$162	0x236357…
10-31 06:04:21	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x9895ed…
10-31 06:04:19	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x12f239…
10-31 06:04:13	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x237d7c…
10-31 06:04:09	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x056ed1…
10-31 06:04:07	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x6cd3b5…
10-31 06:03:49	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	145	73¢	$106	0x3b4e05…
10-31 06:03:48	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	73¢	$37	0x32048e…
10-31 06:03:40	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	93¢	$20	0xa12a7c…
10-31 05:18:10	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	726	93¢	$675	0xb2ae16…
10-31 04:24:22	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,733	34¢	$595	0x57765c…
10-31 04:05:18	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x002668…
10-31 04:05:16	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xb89fff…
10-31 04:05:15	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	93¢	$279	0x79661e…
10-31 03:02:00	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	450	93¢	$418	0x597742…
10-31 02:57:25	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x4c0669…
10-31 02:07:51	Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	52	68¢	$35	0xfa46b4…
10-31 01:56:01	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0xb87d88…
10-31 01:12:16	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	222	92¢	$204	0xcc4c76…
10-31 01:12:16	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x66a81c…
10-31 00:15:21	Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x87ec76…
10-31 00:15:04	Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	149	66¢	$98	0x9088e7…
10-31 00:12:39	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	2,354	24¢	$565	0xd087ab…
10-31 00:12:04	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	4,536	24¢	$1,089	0x9c5f78…
10-30 23:43:12	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x92006d…
10-30 23:39:49	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x308706…
10-30 23:14:24	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	222	25¢	$56	0x1e83d2…
10-30 22:37:03	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	222	20¢	$44	0x5bc11e…
10-30 22:09:36	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	No	SELL	19	83¢	$16	0x4c42be…
10-30 21:54:42	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	SELL	45	9¢	$4	0xf9ddc7…
10-30 21:43:19	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,222	6¢	$122	0x3778d8…
10-30 21:41:40	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	259	5¢	$14	0x0130ea…
10-30 21:08:28	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xb18313…
10-30 19:12:01	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	15	74¢	$11	0x6c82d3…
10-30 19:05:16	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	39	19¢	$7	0x4517e9…
10-30 18:58:54	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	135	74¢	$100	0x899565…
10-30 18:35:48	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	221	93¢	$206	0xa8338c…
10-30 17:56:00	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	152	74¢	$112	0xbd56dc…
10-30 17:48:10	Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x8ebbad…
10-30 17:43:57	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	222	5¢	$12	0x9fe4ed…
10-30 17:43:55	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	22,841	5¢	$1,165	0xa44e15…