Dearest-Agenda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$90.5K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

37.4%

Resolved

Trades

111,502

lifetime

Volume

$36.4M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$327

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 01:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Politics

71% 20% $-90,766

Other

28% 100% +$727

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-510

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 1194 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	319	$1.31M	1,069,485	280,902	+788,583	open	—	03-04 18:27
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1,923	$1.14M	2,522,986	333	+2,522,653	open	—	02-28 07:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	790	$1.01M	1,320,895	222	+1,320,673	open	—	04-07 23:51
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	929	$937.8K	1,358,021	3,110	+1,354,911	open	—	03-04 00:35
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2,094	$810.3K	1,473,085	12,222	+1,460,863	open	—	02-02 23:18
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	89	$685.8K	690,830	0	+690,830	open	—	01-03 20:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	599	$683.4K	1,060,551	4,888	+1,055,663	open	—	04-09 16:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	875	$678.4K	1,010,487	2,080	+1,008,406	open	—	04-30 23:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	954	$536.9K	554,465	118,826	+435,639	open	—	03-04 18:34
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	674	$517.3K	692,519	74,776	+617,743	open	—	04-09 00:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1,252	$474.5K	935,076	0	+935,076	open	—	04-22 21:11
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	558	$465.1K	596,089	323,783	+272,305	open	—	03-04 16:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,493	$462.8K	994,190	11,811	+982,379	open	—	06-01 00:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	472	$402.7K	939,625	1,350	+938,275	open	—	06-17 18:34
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	84	$391.1K	567,179	0	+567,179	open	—	01-04 00:57
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1,360	$387.1K	853,078	0	+853,078	open	—	02-01 04:52
netanyahu out by march 31 854	347	$384.6K	538,806	76,189	+462,617	open	—	04-01 18:51
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	776	$371.4K	577,331	52,056	+525,274	open	—	04-29 16:49
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	251	$371.3K	402,421	0	+402,421	open	—	05-01 00:01
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	906	$353.4K	804,169	0	+804,169	open	—	02-01 05:29
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	640	$352.5K	499,939	0	+499,939	open	—	04-16 04:06
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	19	$343.3K	291,104	55,555	+235,549	open	—	01-28 15:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	856	$316.8K	592,096	4,900	+587,196	open	—	03-31 22:09
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	897	$303.1K	522,164	10,198	+511,966	open	—	03-11 12:23
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	426	$301.9K	595,841	134,378	+461,462	open	—	02-01 05:48
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	699	$298.9K	481,307	3,081	+478,226	open	—	04-24 10:59
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	512	$276.8K	421,285	342,549	+78,736	open	—	03-04 16:12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	377	$267.3K	560,419	0	+560,419	open	—	07-01 02:32
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	15	$264.5K	266,331	0	+266,331	open	—	01-26 09:13
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	243	$263.2K	478,881	24,932	+453,949	open	—	06-24 02:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 01:19:34	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x41d4e1…
08-10 00:39:12	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0x405b2f…
08-09 23:18:28	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x18a508…
08-09 18:48:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x7c9e03…
08-09 16:26:07	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	3,247	98¢	$3,190	0x0d903b…
08-09 16:06:33	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	BUY	400	12¢	$49	0x1550ce…
08-09 13:42:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	148	33¢	$49	0x863744…
08-09 13:41:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x8b4f4d…
08-09 13:15:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x4f0f65…
08-09 13:00:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	400	35¢	$140	0x99db9b…
08-09 11:43:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0xc035b9…
08-09 11:43:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0x5a602e…
08-09 11:39:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0x2e1951…
08-09 11:39:12	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	BUY	59	14¢	$8	0xcae0c6…
08-09 11:38:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	BUY	107	14¢	$15	0xc70f6c…
08-09 11:37:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	BUY	221	19¢	$42	0x3b5572…
08-09 11:27:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	103	38¢	$40	0x6a814c…
08-09 11:27:09	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	220	29¢	$64	0x4c2f10…
08-09 11:27:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	BUY	88	17¢	$15	0x4f3f1a…
08-09 11:26:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	542	39¢	$209	0xf2ccdc…
08-09 02:52:51	andrew tate released from custody by august 31 2026 20260728183326903	Yes	BUY	333	5¢	$18	0xd0d532…
08-08 16:09:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0xce0b94…
08-08 16:04:06	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	69	1¢	$0	0xe207c5…
08-08 15:37:46	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x91d715…
08-08 15:04:27	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x4588d5…
08-08 13:50:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	222	16¢	$36	0xc85264…
08-08 12:21:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x9c49d0…
08-08 11:39:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x784c66…
08-08 11:12:36	will the senate go into recess by august 8 20260728195131706	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x8addf2…
08-08 10:02:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x14b624…
08-08 09:08:25	will the senate go into recess by august 8 20260728195131706	No	BUY	13	26¢	$3	0x79618d…
08-08 09:08:15	will the senate go into recess by august 8 20260728195131706	No	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x3bbd9c…
08-08 09:08:06	will the senate go into recess by august 8 20260728195131706	No	BUY	37	20¢	$7	0x84c17e…
08-08 08:33:10	will the senate go into recess by august 8 20260728195131706	Yes	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0xb440d3…
08-08 08:32:43	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by august 31 20260729184249668	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x2b29ea…
08-08 08:32:21	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by august 31 20260729184249668	No	BUY	935	99¢	$927	0xf70e52…
08-08 08:30:30	will dan sullivan vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821976	Yes	BUY	120	98¢	$118	0x6bee20…
08-08 08:30:04	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	755	98¢	$737	0xc5478a…
08-08 08:29:24	will the senate go into recess by august 8 20260728195131706	Yes	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x791544…
08-08 08:29:06	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by october 31 20260608213258432	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x0246cf…
08-08 08:28:52	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	Yes	BUY	1,401	98¢	$1,374	0x71877a…
08-08 08:28:42	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	Yes	BUY	14,753	98¢	$14,450	0x71f271…
08-08 08:24:30	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x71cf77…
08-08 08:21:27	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x051404…
08-08 06:32:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0xe7efe1…
08-08 06:32:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0xe1ef68…
08-08 04:40:46	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	214	20¢	$43	0x028f87…
08-08 04:01:30	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by august 31 20260729184249668	No	BUY	75	98¢	$73	0xc57c6d…
08-08 03:59:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xcbe320…
08-08 03:49:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	1,020	99¢	$1,014	0x085f9a…
08-08 03:25:13	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x5ec718…
08-08 03:07:22	andrew tate released from custody by august 31 2026 20260728183326903	Yes	BUY	58	7¢	$4	0xfc55ff…
08-08 02:23:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$1	0xab1f31…
08-08 02:21:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x3578ea…
08-08 01:58:22	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	Yes	BUY	71	5¢	$4	0xc94af1…
08-08 00:27:43	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x1431d8…
08-08 00:27:07	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	Yes	BUY	140	93¢	$131	0x73a4d4…
08-07 23:50:33	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xf4efae…
08-07 23:26:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x91f517…
08-07 23:12:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x9658c2…
08-07 23:08:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	580	98¢	$569	0x6d50d3…
08-07 22:43:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	555	97¢	$541	0xae4f99…
08-07 22:30:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	1,545	98¢	$1,514	0xf550ac…
08-07 21:41:15	andrew tate released from custody by august 31 2026 20260728183326903	Yes	BUY	997	5¢	$48	0x9ac2c0…
08-07 21:32:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x53b9f2…
08-07 21:10:51	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	BUY	112	22¢	$25	0x414042…
08-07 21:02:10	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	26	6¢	$2	0x1afd16…
08-07 21:02:07	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	46	6¢	$3	0xee5ab5…
08-07 21:02:07	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	81	7¢	$6	0xd532b5…
08-07 21:02:07	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	28	6¢	$2	0x0926c2…
08-07 20:15:57	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	8	7¢	$1	0x0334bc…
08-07 20:09:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	39	93¢	$36	0xdc639e…
08-07 19:57:45	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x14667e…
08-07 19:53:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	429	94¢	$401	0xcdac5f…
08-07 19:53:06	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	51	8¢	$4	0xa52911…
08-07 19:39:21	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	105	9¢	$9	0xaf0d6d…
08-07 19:32:03	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0x1a9b0a…
08-07 19:31:58	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	47	10¢	$5	0x9fc692…
08-07 19:31:58	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0x8ce645…
08-07 18:46:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	69	8¢	$5	0x3fc454…
08-07 18:46:04	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x1178b3…
08-07 18:45:52	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0xedf91e…
08-07 18:45:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	131	8¢	$10	0x5b3052…
08-07 18:42:57	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x9f0e5f…
08-07 18:42:52	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x74fc48…
08-07 18:42:49	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x9e440f…
08-07 18:18:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	32	8¢	$3	0x5da88f…
08-07 18:15:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xafa5fd…
08-07 18:06:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0x219375…
08-07 17:55:33	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x5b39c6…
08-07 15:44:03	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by october 31 20260608213258432	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x2ffd25…
08-07 15:37:21	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by december 31 20260608213258433	Yes	BUY	140	98¢	$136	0xa7aab7…
08-07 15:37:18	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by december 31 20260608213258433	Yes	BUY	169	97¢	$164	0x8255c1…
08-07 15:37:10	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by october 31 20260608213258432	Yes	BUY	224	98¢	$218	0xbfd142…
08-07 15:36:42	todd blanche nomination withdrawn by august 31 20260731141647591	No	BUY	60	94¢	$57	0x6f4aaa…
08-07 15:35:15	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by october 31 20260608213258432	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x178679…
08-07 15:34:04	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	37	11¢	$4	0x7a7cac…
08-07 15:33:55	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	444	20¢	$88	0x5650c0…
08-07 15:33:33	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	71	13¢	$9	0x8e1940…
08-07 15:32:18	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xcebb29…